Feasibility of Secret Orbital and Deep Space Launches?

[Delta Force]

There are quite a few stories told as both fiction and non-fiction that feature secret space launches. While there is a long history of concealing the role of various launches, such as the Soviets concealing failed launches and satellites as rocket tests or failures of low level vehicles, and the United States launching classified payloads, the fact that the rockets launched isn't a secret, but instead what they were doing.

I'm wondering if it would have been possible, or might still be possible, for something to be secretly launched into orbit or deep space. By secret, I mean no one knows but the entity doing the launch, as opposed to other entities knowing about it but for one reason or another not making the information public.

There are a few parts to this, namely keeping the launch itself secret (going into orbit/deep space), keeping the fact that the payload is in orbit/deep space secret, keeping the location of the payload secret, and keeping the mission of the payload secret. Keeping the launch facility itself secret is likely another.

Taking all of these factors together, when, if at any time, would it have been possible for an entity to have conducted a secret launch?

 

[Riain]

Someone has to build the rocket and the payload, and it has to be launched for a sizeable facility all of which require large numbers of people. What's more there are plenty of amateur astronomers out there who track spacecraft for fun, they followed Apollo to the moon for example, so they'll pick up on most activity.

I think the best that can be done is denial and misinformation, major space launches and spacecraft are too hard to hide otherwise.

 

[jahenders]

Yeah, with current technologies, the launch of a large object from earth's surface is too easy to spot. So, the best bet would be to claim it's a weather satellite or some such, when it's really something more sinister.

The other approach would be to first stage the item in space, like in a Skylab or ISS resupply, then "launch" it from the space station to it's target.

It gets easier as you have more launches, from more groups (companies), into space -- there could be just too much to keep track of everything.

Someone has to build the rocket and the payload, and it has to be launched for a sizable facility all of which require large numbers of people. What's more there are plenty of amateur astronomers out there who track spacecraft for fun, they followed Apollo to the moon for example, so they'll pick up on most activity.

I think the best that can be done is denial and misinformation, major space launches and spacecraft are too hard to hide otherwise.

 

[Tallest Skil]

By secret, I mean no one knows but the entity doing the launch, as opposed to other entities knowing about it but for one reason or another not making the information public.

It’s not possible to hide a launch, but it’s probably possible to hide the contents.

Taking all of these factors together, when, if at any time, would it have been possible for an entity to have conducted a secret launch?

Only the early ‘60s, really.

 

[Alratan]

A supergun launch into an odd orbit might be disguisable, perhaps

 

[Michel Van]

I would do this way of Bond villain

get Super Tanker, in south china build ,who is in realty a swimming launch platform for huge rocket
and launch in middle of pacific ocean near equator

of curse the launch would be detected, by USA an Russian Radars, but they have no idea what, who and how it was launched.
and on satellite picture afterwards would only show a Super Tanker...

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Take a look at
http://spaceflightnow.com/antares/demo/visibility/

The demo Antares launch was (to be?) visible from Charleston SC through Clarkesburg WV, Pittsburg PA, Albany NY to Portland ME.

How do you hide such a thing?

 

[Apollo 20]

A ballistic missile test facility on some remote Pacific island under US jurisdiction might do the trick, but there are still issues. The US announces a series of tests of a new missile system and slips something through during the "testing". Still, though, you're not going to have the launch go undetected and any complex with substantial capability will be pored over by the people looking at the satellite photos. Launching something unconventional will still be hard to hide.

 

[aktarian]

A supergun launch into an odd orbit might be disguisable, perhaps

A ballistic missile test facility on some remote Pacific island under US jurisdiction might do the trick, but there are still issues. The US announces a series of tests of a new missile system and slips something through during the "testing". Still, though, you're not going to have the launch go undetected and any complex with substantial capability will be pored over by the people looking at the satellite photos. Launching something unconventional will still be hard to hide.

Quite. I'd wager that every country with long range missile capability is being watched by countries that have capability to do so and launches will be detected within minutes. If they are building something that resembles launch site such as Cape Canaveral, Baikonur or Guiana centre it will be watched even more. Ditto if they build space gun, super gun or whatever. I don't think it would be possible to hide launch because such countries will be monitored because there is little difference between rocket that puts payload in space and ICBM and such launches will be onitored and if they deploy something in orbit others will know about it.

I'm not sure supertanker thing would work. For one, as above, countries that have such capability will be monitored and you can't really hide the fact that you loaded a big ass rocket on a tanker since you can only do it in port. Loading it in pieces and assembling it on sea sounds a bit iffy and you can't dissasemble everything and some parts will look like exactlly what they are. And that doesn't cover the actual launch on sea. Possible but unadvisable.

 

[TFSmith121]

Depends a lot on when in the Twentieth C.

There are quite a few stories told as both fiction and non-fiction that feature secret space launches. While there is a long history of concealing the role of various launches, such as the Soviets concealing failed launches and satellites as rocket tests or failures of low level vehicles, and the United States launching classified payloads, the fact that the rockets launched isn't a secret, but instead what they were doing.

I'm wondering if it would have been possible, or might still be possible, for something to be secretly launched into orbit or deep space. By secret, I mean no one knows but the entity doing the launch, as opposed to other entities knowing about it but for one reason or another not making the information public.

There are a few parts to this, namely keeping the launch itself secret (going into orbit/deep space), keeping the fact that the payload is in orbit/deep space secret, keeping the location of the payload secret, and keeping the mission of the payload secret. Keeping the launch facility itself secret is likely another.

Taking all of these factors together, when, if at any time, would it have been possible for an entity to have conducted a secret launch?

Depends a lot on when; there was a time when there was only one power with any significant orbital reconnaissance capabilities.

Best

 

[Grey Wolf]

You could keep the launch secret by having it occur at the same time as an ICBM test launch. Nobody around is going to know the difference and not the media.

The problem comes from observatories that might pick up the thing going into space.

Depending on the timeframe, it would also be obvious to enemy military observation.

What might work is to launch something overt, then have this thing break into several things once beyond the atmosphere

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[Crowbar Six]

Well an unannounced launch is going to be dectable to the US or Russians (possibly the Chinese too) as they all have satellites designed to detect launches. Any such launch is going to

a) raise all sorts of interest
b) make people nervous ie is it a ICBM launch, or a FOBS?

the USAF operate a number of high powered telescopes to check satellites in orbit. The resolution was such they used them to check for missing thermal tiles on Shuttle launches so they won't miss much.

In the early 60's it would have been possible to get away with a covert launch (maybe if the US used Kwajalein for example). By the late 60-70's a covert launch would have been impossible. It may have been possible to hide a satellite by announcing it failed to operate or it didn't go into the correct orbit but ground inspection may have well revealed its purpose.

 

[WILDGEESE]

Well an unannounced launch is going to be dectable to the US or Russians (possibly the Chinese too) as they all have satellites designed to detect launches. Any such launch is going to

a) raise all sorts of interest
b) make people nervous ie is it a ICBM launch, or a FOBS?

the USAF operate a number of high powered telescopes to check satellites in orbit. The resolution was such they used them to check for missing thermal tiles on Shuttle launches so they won't miss much.

In the early 60's it would have been possible to get away with a covert launch (maybe if the US used Kwajalein for example). By the late 60-70's a covert launch would have been impossible. It may have been possible to hide a satellite by announcing it failed to operate or it didn't go into the correct orbit but ground inspection may have well revealed its purpose.

Speaking of FOBS (Fractional Orbital Bombing System) how easy would it be for a power, for instance the USSR in the Cold War to employ a FOBS payload into orbit above the continental USA without the US knowing about it such as what was fictionalized in the film "Space Cowboys"?

Could the USSR say it was one of their spy satellites, then wait while the FOBS payload orbited for a few weeks, as would a spy satellite then "KABOOMM!!" let rip with it's payload.?

I'm surprised this hasn't been tried before.

 

[TFSmith121]

There are more things in heaven and earth than are

There are more things in heaven and earth than are dreamt of...

Something to keep in mind, the US and USSR both invested in their triads for a reason.

Best,

 

[Delta Force]

In the United States Space Track started in 1957, while in the early 1960s the Ballistic Missile Early Warning System (BMEWS) came online along with other systems for detecting launches. I think there was an American space observation system established prior to the first orbital flights, but I'm not sure. I know that the United States government encouraged civilians to monitor space visually and with radios in the late 1950s and early 1960s to help detect new satellites.

NORAD had and to some extent still has has a prominent gap in coverage in the Southern United States, due to how unlikely attacks are from that direction. There was actually no ballistic missile radars in the region until after the Cuban Missile Crisis, which led to some tension because experts thought it was an attempt to subvert the northern oriented air defense systems of NORAD. Even after a radar site was established in Florida to cover the Gulf of Mexico, the Soviet Union still planned a fractional orbital bombardment system that would enable surprise nuclear launches by placing warheads into polar orbit from the south. The Soviets thought a gap existed and the United States was concerned about it as well, so presumably there were issues at least with tracking payloads going launch into polar orbit from the south, if not with detecting launches themselves (BMEWS probably wouldn't be of any use).

I don't know how well the Soviet system was in the 1950s and 1960s, but I've heard that they had to rely on Western sightings of Sputnik to know how it was progressing due to having a less developed tracking network. The United States had various land tracking stations on the territory of friendly states, but the Soviets had to build sophisticated ships for tracking their spacecraft.

 

[TFSmith121]

There's another way, of course:

There's another way, of course:

Space Power No. 1 prevents any other nation becoming Space Power No. 2...

There's an argument the US was very happy the Soviets established the principle of free navigation in earth orbit; otherwise, there could have been quite a shooting match going on...

Which, even with the Soviet's early advantage in large LF launch vehicles, would ultimately have been much easier for the US to "win" than for the Soviets.

Best,