Deleted member 1487
What if the Germans had kept to their original schedule and attacked at Kursk on May 4th? Zhukov did not mention the desire to stand on the defensive until April 8th, though defensive positions were being prepared already. The greatest part of the defensive lines were constructed in later May, June, and were ready by early July. The German offensive power did not increase enough proportionally to justify the delay, as they were relatively more powerful on May 4th than July 4th. So would it even matter if the Germans launched their attack early? Could they achieve their objective of slicing off the salient before the Soviets were allowed to expand their defenses and have two extra months of stockpiling tanks and other equipment that allowed them to launch their own powerful counter offensives immediately after the battle?
Provisionally, I will say that they will have much more success, though I am not sure about a total victory on the level they expected. At most, it will severely damage the Soviet armies, preventing an immediate series of counter offensives. Additionally, there will be fewer German losses, which should allow them to better withstand the Soviets attacks later in the year. Plus, it gives them extra time before the Allies invade Sicily. There probably would be some ugly follow up to the offensive, but I am not sure that the Lower Don Offensive would be nearly as successful. This could push the Soviet advance back several months, allowing the Germans to pull back to the Wotan line in good order, and not allow the Soviets to breech the river defense line nearly as quickly. Plus, without the German forces being smashed up in the frantic retreat, there won't be the massacre of forces caught on the wrong side of the river during the Soviet attacks. All in all a longer Eastern Front campaign with lower German losses by 1944, leaving them a viable defense for longer. Thoughts?
Provisionally, I will say that they will have much more success, though I am not sure about a total victory on the level they expected. At most, it will severely damage the Soviet armies, preventing an immediate series of counter offensives. Additionally, there will be fewer German losses, which should allow them to better withstand the Soviets attacks later in the year. Plus, it gives them extra time before the Allies invade Sicily. There probably would be some ugly follow up to the offensive, but I am not sure that the Lower Don Offensive would be nearly as successful. This could push the Soviet advance back several months, allowing the Germans to pull back to the Wotan line in good order, and not allow the Soviets to breech the river defense line nearly as quickly. Plus, without the German forces being smashed up in the frantic retreat, there won't be the massacre of forces caught on the wrong side of the river during the Soviet attacks. All in all a longer Eastern Front campaign with lower German losses by 1944, leaving them a viable defense for longer. Thoughts?