feasibility of any part of Algeria being French

[Blackfox5]

Can anyone provide details, or better a map, of the different populations of French Algeria in the post-WWII period?


I know that approximately 1 million pied-noirs are about 10% of the French Algerian population. That they make up 1/3 of Algiers and a majority of Oran, and that their greatest settlement was in the plains of Mitijda (outside Algiers).


But I am looking for specifics, particularly concentrations.


I am wondering if under different circumstances, some part of French Algeria could be retained by France. Such an area would require the bulk of pied-noirs population to live there, and the remaining native Algerian population to be friendly, pro-French, or at least accomodating of continued French rule. Ideally, the area would allow pied-noir population to be near an actual majority (although perhaps only when the pied-noirs outside the region migrate to it when the rest of Algeria becomes independent).


Most of the country would still become independent, and the wisdom of retaining part of it as metropolitan France could be debateable. However, I am interested in whether such an area is even feasible. It would need to be populated largely by pro-French, small enough to be defensible, but large enough to be economically viable. I'm not sure if it is feasible, but am interested in learning more.

 

[Fubart Solman]

I could see some small area remaining under French control similar to how Spain still controls Ceuta and Melilla.

 

[funnyhat]

I would think that Oran and its environs could have been retained. The French military could have gathered its forces in Oran and hunkered down there. The FLN might not have been happy with this, but it probably couldn't have prevented it. In this scenario, I could see there being a lot of ethnic cleansing, with pieds-noirs moving into Oran and Algerians being driven out. But this would have required a lot of political will on the part of de Gaulle to hang on to the territory. The war might have continued awhile longer (and it was pretty nasty, with a lot of civilian deaths) before the FLN would accept the terms. There would probably also have to be no OAS around to complicate matters.

 

[Simon]

There was something along those lines considered in our timeline.

It has actually been envisionned by either proeminent Gaullists (namely Alain Peyrefitte) and OAS members, who even discussed it, AFAIK, with moderates from the provisional Algerian Government in mid-1962, before the Pied-Noir exodus.

The idea, born after the failure of the 1961 putsch, was to "Israelise" not all of Algeria, but the Oranais zone (Oran being a city with a European majority). The Pieds-Noirs and Algerian Jews (who were French citizens by law, unlike the Muslims), were to gather in the Oran-Tlemcen-Sidi-Bel-Abbès zone, esure they would have a demographic majority, and organise themselves as a European stronghold, either within France proper (it was Peyrefitte's idea) or, more probably after a solid majority in France favored Algerian independance, as an independant country.

Actually, Oran was a rather industrialized zone (less that Algiers, arguably) and one of the more prosperous agricultural area in Algeria and, economically, the idea was not totally stupid. I also suppose that the leaders of the Oranian solution would have been reinforced by rebel officers, either condemned or ousted from the French army after the Putsch, and some right-wing radicals from France (and maby a few French colonists from Subsaharian Africa). Oh, and Harkis, too.

This said, a White rump Algeria would probably survive only for a few years, and probably not after 1975.

The country is bound to maintain a large, standing army to protect itself from a probably very hostile Algeria, from Muslim dissent within the country (assuming, of course, The Oranais didn't expelled, or worse, non-loyaist Muslims). Relations with France will be horrible. I'm pretty sure that the Oranais would back every Anti-Gaullist terroist organisation in France proper, and France, shifting to the 1960's industrial and European policies, would do everthing to distance from people who would be as popular ad the radical Afrikaners in South Africa. The Oranais would have no support from the Socialist Bloc (duh), but, aside from ultra-conservative circles, I doubt the US would do anything favorable to a colonialist regime who would arguably be a troublesome element for Western strategy in the Middle East and the Mediterranean. The only help the Oranais could hope for would come from Francoist Spain, Portugal, South Africa and probably Israel (and maybe military dictaroships in Greece and latin America). Marocco, having very bad relations with algeria, might be a favourable neutral.

However, deprived from real economic perspectives, being a pariah state with, I suppose, few democratic features, under the permanent pressure of hostile neighbors and without any real, powerful ally to balance it (not to mention any legitimacy), especially after the Carnation Revolution in Portugal and Franco's death in Spain, I guess the country would collapse. You would have, either a transitional French mandate to set everything ready for retrocession to Algeria, or a violent collapse, the Oranais fleeing either to Isreal (for the Jewish population), Spain, maybe South Africa. I doubt many would reach France, given the hostiliy between the two countries.

 

[Reagent]

Here is a map showing the Demographic breakdown by Department in 1960:

With a post-WWII POD, the likelihood of a surviving French Algeria is very unlikely.

Essentially, a French Algeria is either going to be too large for the Algerians to accept, or too small to be viable. Thus, a Pied-Noir state is either a non-starter, or it will be abandoned later after more fighting.

Ethnic cleansing could theoretically act as a fait accompli to preserve a rump French Algeria, but the support simply didn't exist in France to go through with Ethnic Cleansing, much less in the French Government (proposals of partition made by the French Government were almost always bluffs to try to extract better terms from the FLN, and never a serious thought) who wanted to resolve the Algerian situation, not prolong a very unpopular war. The Pied-Noirs themselves don't really have the ability or will (most of them would rather be repatriated to France than live in a rouge state) than carve out a state for themselves separate from France.

The best France could realistically do with a post-WWII POD is to retain Saint André de Mers-el-Kébir as a navy base (Mers-el-Kébir is one of the best harbors in the Mediterranean, and is fairly isolated by steep hills from the remainder of Algeria). Mers-el-Kébir had a notable Pied-Noir population (primarily of Italian descent), that was possibly a majority at the time of Independence (Figures are scarce, but Mers-el-Kébir had a very strong European majority in 1930, so extrapolation would suggest a European majority, or something very close to that in 1962). It would be a point of contention for many Algerian nationalists, but the leadership of the FLN could probably afford to leave it with France to get some sort of peace deal (though likely it would be analogous to Guantanamo Bay, de facto French, de jure Algerian). However, given the French shift in focus towards their Nuclear Program, and away from their surface fleet, this idea could be a non-starter.

-----

However, with some earlier POD's, portions of Algeria could remain with France.

POD 1: Have France stop the conquest of Algeria at the ports they seized between 1830 and 1834. All of these ports (with the exception of Bougie and La Calle) had strong European majorities for most of their history (in 1911, Oran was 82% European, and Algiers was 74%. Oran stayed as a European Majority until a few years before Independence, and Algiers kept its European majority until a few years after World War II). The reason these port cities lost their European majority was the rural Arab/Berber exodus to the cities that begun in the 1930s, but really picked up in the 1950s. Since these cities will be detached from the rural areas supplying this exodus, significant European percentages will be maintained.

POD 2: Have France adopt a more open and incentivized immigration policy to Algeria after 1848. As this thread explains, hundreds of thousands of Poor Spaniards could make perfect colonists for Algeria, and push the total amount of Pied-Noirs up to 2 or even 3 million by the time of the Independence war. These Pied-Noirs will probably have a more distinct identity than OTL, and will have the numbers to make repatriation extremely difficult (OTL's repatriation had many difficulties, which will be magnified here). The end result is some sort of partition that leaves the Pied-Noirs, Shepardi Jews, and loyalists Muslims with a state composing of Oran, Algiers, and the littoral between (varying in depth, but probably reaching 100 miles in at some points to control water sources). This state will probably be a pariah on the level of Israel, and will likely need to acquire some sort of Nuclear deterrent at some point.

POD 3: Have Germany win World War I in 1917, and dictate extremely harsh terms. This will cause all kinds of internal problems within France, and make holding their colonies extremely difficult. A revolt could break out in Algeria, and push the French back to the still European ports (see POD 1)

 

[funnyhat]

Reagent - very interesting. Regarding ethnic cleansing, I wasn't suggesting that it would be a formal governmental policy, but more something that would just end up happening in the midst of the conflict.

One question: would the people of Metropolitan France definitely have rejected an Oranais enclave? We know they voted for the whole of Algeria to become independent, but if presented with a separate option to keep a portion while granting independence to the rest, can we safely say they'd have turned it down? I know it wasn't seriously considered by de Gaulle, but I'd curious if it had been.

 

[LSCatilina]

Not remotly possible with a post-1900 PoD. Algerian independence movement was very keen about independence for the whole of Algeria.

If such thing would have been tried, Oran would have become a mix between Gaza and North Ireland, a financial gap with quite an important exile flux (that began in the 50's to France) and eventually inhabited mostly by Army, Arabs and Pieds-Noirs of all Algeria that didn't went in France and overcrowd a small area that would rely essentially on metropolitain ravitail.

Strategically, economically, politically, it would be a nightmare.

POD 1: Have France stop the conquest of Algeria

Conquest of the hinterland was eventually a strategical necessity, would it be only to prevent raiding.
Furthermore, the Army at this point had a very important political role in French Algeria (more than colonists), and they were very motivated about continuing the conquest southwards

POD 2: Have France adopt a more open and incentivized immigration policy to Algeria after 1848

It was tried IOTL, but it failed. Mostly because it wasn't that interesting to settle in Algeria, and that Army wasn't really enthusiast about colonisation in first place (something along the lines of "WE conquered the land, so why these civilians and foreigners come there?"

One question: would the people of Metropolitan France definitely have rejected an Oranais enclave?

Eventually, yes. The whole thing would be a financial disaster, and a political dead end. Would it be only to remove this gap, you'd have a real incitative to get rid of this. As Pieds-Noirs weren't really well seen in metropolitain France to begin with (not really by anti-colonialism : violent anti-arabism was as much widespread, often with the same people), nobody would really mind.

 

[Viriato]

November 19, 1961 Alain Peyrefitte, a member of France's national assembly proposed to President Charles de Gaulle a partition plan. The plan involed the following.

The Pieds-Noirs and loyal Muslims were to given the territory between Algiers and Oran. The sparsely population Sahara territory would remain French. Another idea proposed was having everything from the Moroccan border to Algiers remain French.

Algiers would be partitioned in that the Casbah would remain part of the new Islamic state run by the FLN.

 

[Michele]

I could see some small area remaining under French control similar to how Spain still controls Ceuta and Melilla.

The point is that Ceuta and Melilla were thoroughly Spanish centuries ago.

 

[Redhand]

Keeping Oran is doable, provided you get the PiedNoirs there and have a military presence that keeps the FLN out. The Muslims there might be more loyal if given rights that were previously denied.

 

[miguelrj]

The point is that Ceuta and Melilla were thoroughly Spanish centuries ago.

Ceuta and Melilla have a long established European majority and a sizeable Muslim minority due to migration. I think the comparison is fair.

The historical right to the real estate is another question entirely.

 

[Blackfox5]

Thanks. This is excellent information, especially from Reagent and Simon (courtesy of Captain Poplar).

It seems if France wanted to retain any part of French Algeria, it would be a coastal territory around Oran including the port of Mers-el-Kebir but stretching to Algiers (and the plain of Mitijda) to include as much of the French settlers as possible to minimize population transfers of the pieds-noirs. However, because the two main centers of French population are apart (Oran and Algiers), it looks like one of them will need to be sacrificed, and Algiers is the one most likely to be abandoned.

Does anyone know the economic activites of Oran and the surrounding area? It seems like it would be mainly agricultural and light manufacturing. The major mining and petroleoum areas would be given to Algeria. I'm wondering if the economic activity and tax base would be large enough so that such a remnant state could pay for its own administration expenses, or if it would just be a sinkhole for French finances.

The strategic wisdom of holding onto such an area in the face of longstanding Algerian revanchism is doubtful, but political considerations can make states do "stupid" things. I think the real question as to its viability is whether its economic activity could pay for its administration. Economic sinkholes are eventually abandoned because they are not sustainable. If it can pay for itself, viability becomes a matter of political will.

 

[Alternate History Geek]

However, because the two main centers of French population are apart (Oran and Algiers), it looks like one of them will need to be sacrificed, and Algiers is the one most likely to be abandoned.

Why couldn't you just have two separate exclaves, one for Oran and one for Algiers?

 

[Reagent]

Does anyone know the economic activites of Oran and the surrounding area? It seems like it would be mainly agricultural and light manufacturing. The major mining and petroleoum areas would be given to Algeria. I'm wondering if the economic activity and tax base would be large enough so that such a remnant state could pay for its own administration expenses, or if it would just be a sinkhole for French finances.

Value of Industrial Activity measured in Millions of New Francs (by Department):

Value of Agricultural Activity measured in Millions of New Francs (by Department):

Algiers Department would probably be the most viable Department for France to hold, and possibly the only department France could hold for an extended period of time as a "Rump French Algeria". Geographically and Economically, the place would be more secure for France than Oran (despite the latter being 6% more European). Geographically, the Department of Algiers is bounded by the Blida Atlas Mountains which forms a natural barrier, and ensures plenty of rain water ends up on the French side of the border (which can be used to irrigate the Mitidja Plain and provide water for Algiers city). Economically (at least in the long-term, after any disruption from a more-or-less required population transfer isn't as apparent), Algiers department is far more industrialized than Oran (and has more heavy industry, as opposed to Oran's light industry that required more low-wage labor often filled by the Arabs), and it's agricultural output nearly matches that of Oran, despite its much smaller size. The Mitidja plain located within the Department currently produces 50% of Algeria's citrus (though this is after a switch encouraged by the Algerian Government away from the slightly more lucrative Wine industry) even after the expansion of the Algiers metropolitan area.

In order for Algiers Department to be remotely tenable as a French exclave, France would need to ethnically cleanse the place (good luck convincing a French government remotely similar to OTL of that) of nearly 800,000 to 1,100,000 Arabs (more than in Oran department, but about 100,000 fewer Pied-Noirs need to be moved) to eliminate a fifth column (the Harki could stay) that could make governing the territory untenable. However, once a population exchange goes through, Pied-Noirs and Harki from the rest of Algeria probably number enough to make up for this depopulation.

Politically, Algeria will Never accept this (it might take a few hundred years for an Oran exclave to be tolerated, if it ever is, let alone the nation's capital and namesake of the country). The almost necessary population exchange / ethnic cleansing would further inflame tensions. The situation in Gaza / Israel is a good parallel, except France can't blockade weapons from entering Algeria in nearly the same way Israel can prevent stuff from entering Gaza. French Algiers will be an extremely attractive target for terrorism, and France will need to invest a lot to keep its citizenry safe. Probably one of the largest issues for France would be the lack of a distinct Pied-Noir identity. There isn't the attachment to the land that the Israeli's have, and French Algeria would remain part of Metropolitan France, meaning Pied-Noirs could just move to mainland France to not have to deal with the terrorism. On top of this, your average Pied-Noir made 80% of what the average person in the mainland of France made, so there will always be a financial incentive to leave. If you could somehow invent a distinct Pied Noir identity (to significantly lessen the desire to immigrate to France), improve the economic situation in Algeria drastically, and change the government in France to make them want to fight long and hard for Algeria, then maybe a French Algiers (or Oran) enclave could exist to this day, but you are going to need a Pre-1900 POD to accomplish that.

Why couldn't you just have two separate exclaves, one for Oran and one for Algiers?

The main issue is that you'd have to remove the Fifth Column of Arabs sympathetic to the FLN to make the territory governable in anything beyond the short-term. If you do this, Oran or Algiers likely will be depopulated by 50% or higher. Thus, the logical solution would be to bring in the Pied-Noirs from elsewhere to replenish this lost population (though any partition is going to mean economic disaster in the short term and medium term, this will give the place some chance to recover economically). If you could manage to boost the Pied-Noir population another million or so (Pre-1900 POD required), while keeping the Arab population about the same, I guess it could be doable.

 

[Blackfox5]

Reagent, I agree that France holding onto Algiers itself is even more problematic than Oran because of the namesake issue. It's why I quickly discounted that area.

I wonder if any of the heavy industrial plant could be moved to Oran if that area was held. That could boost its economic viability.

The political viability is all dependent on the will of Paris versus the FLN (or whatever splinter group) to control Oran.

I think it might be possible for Paris to get the FLN to initially agree to a rump state given certain circumstances (which never happened IOTL). The Evian Accords envisioned religious freedom and transition period for the pro-French population. Those ended up being a farce, but if the French really wanted to ensure that the part of the population was truly protected, then some kind of framework might be possible. Perhaps an Oran department operated under the framework of a condominium between France and Algeria for the protection of pied-noirs and Harkis? Perhaps with the provision that the status would be periodically confirmed in consultation with the two governments and/or democratic referendum in order to ensure the protection of rights of its inhabitants? In the short term, something could be worked out given certain PODs and political imagination (even if plausibility is thrown out the window). The issue is a long term terrorism and hostility.

However, I think the FLN will have plenty of trouble after independence. There are the issues of one party rule versus multiparty democracy; Arab nationalism versus the Berber population; and that Algerians may have wanted the French out of Algeria, but did want to continue cooperation and trade. As internal politics becomes more important, waving the flag over Oran might not be as important as some other issues - especially if France can manipulate some of the divisions behind the scenes. That may cause Oran to become less of an issue over time, at least to the Falklands level and not as a West Bank or even a Hong Kong issue.

But I admit the viability is doubtful.

Some very good information, were do your maps come from?

 

[Reagent]

Reagent, I agree that France holding onto Algiers itself is even more problematic than Oran because of the namesake issue. It's why I quickly discounted that area.

Unless "Rump French Algeria" is something really small (area, population, and economic wise) like Mers-el-Kébir (and even that would be a tough pill to swallow for many Algerians, and will be the focus of hostility between Algeria and France for many decades), it is very unlikely the Algerians will tolerate it for a very long time (if at all).

Since France is going to experience massive hostility and terrorism from the Algerians for decades, probably centuries for keeping either Oran or Algiers, I think it makes the most sense to keep the one that won't be as bad of a money sink, and can actually be defended in a somewhat meaningful way (which is Algiers), rather than hope the Algerians eventually get over the loss of Oran and cease hostilities.

Some very good information, were do your maps come from?

The maps come from a declassified CIA Document regarding the potential impact of partitioning Algeria

 

[miguelrj]

Since France is going to experience massive hostility and terrorism from the Algerians for decades, probably centuries for keeping either Oran

Why? It's not that Spain faces Moroccan terrorism due to Ceuta and Melilla...

If you're just proposing a French Mers-el-Kébir there's no need for a meaningful population transfer thus no displaced people with grievences that would justify an aggression level higher than OTL Morocco vis-à-vis Spain. Even if it's Mers-el-Kébir and its contiguous Oran, do they really need to expel the Arabs? Couldn't they just offer this smaller group full citizenship rights?

The maps come from a declassified CIA Document regarding the potential impact of partitioning Algeria

This will be interesting to read, thanks for sharing.

 

[Niko Malaka]

Why? It's not that Spain faces Moroccan terrorism due to Ceuta and Melilla...

I agree with you, though I wouldn't discard the possibility of extreme tenssions and acts of violence in the years after the independence. The independence of Algeria was reached through a violent, destructive and mercyless war. There was a lot of bitterness and a lot of pain after the war, not to mention a strong nationalist élan that I wouldn't be sure was that powerful in Morocco (in part, perhaps, precissely by the lack of a conflict like the Algerian) Compared to this, the Ifni War was a skirmish. Also, Mohamed V and his son Mohamed VI had good personal relations with Franco (dog doesn't eat dog) and Mahmed VI had certainly very good relations with Juan Carlos I, treating each other as "brother" in their diplomatic and personal relations. And finally, Rabat had doubts about the loyalty of the Rifean amazigh population (not without a reason), so the idea of making the area a source of active conflict with a third party wouldn't be exactly attractive. Summarizing, there are some different circumstances to consider.

 

[Viriato]

I think the difference between Ceuta and Mellilla and Algeria was as mentioned before, Ceuta was Portuguese between 1415-1640 and stayed loyal to the Spanish Crown when the Portuguese revolted, so it has been under European rule longer than parts of Andalusia. Melilla too was conquered by Spain in 1492.

The Spanish ruled Oran and Mers el Kbir for a longer period than the French up until 1792, so Spanish culture was predominant in that area. Perhaps if Algeria had been Spanish this area could have been easily integrated into Spain. In many towns in Oran, people of Spanish descent outnumbered others 5 to 1. Have a pod to make Algeria French and at least this region could be part of Spain.

The lack of Frenchness, underlies one of the issues with French Algeria. There were few binding ties to Metropolitan France. By 1954, 79% of the Pieds-Noirs were born in Algeria and. During the depression there were already those pieds noirs who sought employment in Metropolitan France or elsewhere. Few French were willing to move there and indeed most of those from the Paris region were either convicts or administrators.

Net European Migration to Algeria
1921-1926 3,948
1926-1931 13,360
1931-1936 24,106
1936-1948 -104,100
1948-1954 2,000
1958-1961 -150,000
1962 -800,000 (June -328,434)
1963 -80,000
1964 -30,000

Total Non-Muslim Population
1876 311,439
1886 422,796
1896 530,137
1901 583,637
1906 615,618
1911 681,772
1921 717,186
1926 795,857
1931 881,584
1936 946,013
1948 922,272
1954 984,048
1959 1,025,000

Culturally speaking, the largest contingent of immigrants were from southern Spain, the last large numbers European immigrants to Algeria were Spaniards. The pieds noirs were a heterogeneous mix of Mediterranean peoples looked down upon by many French from Metropolitan France. The only thing that bound this group to the French state was their status as a privileged minority needing the protection of the French government.

Below is a breakdown of the ancestry of the non-Muslim population of Algeria.
40% Spanish (Alicante, Murcia, Valencia and Menorca)
25% mainland France (mostly Languedoc and Provence and to a lesser extent Paris)
20% Italian (mostly Naples and Sicliy), Corsican and Maltese
12% Naturalised Jews (Granted in 1870 by the Crémieux Decree)
3% German (German, Swiss, Alsatian)

The above could illustrate why few French would want to risk their lives for a territory they had few ties to. This especially became problematic once the terrorism spilled over to Metropolitan France.

 

[Reagent]

Why? It's not that Spain faces Moroccan terrorism due to Ceuta and Melilla...

If you're just proposing a French Mers-el-Kébir there's no need for a meaningful population transfer thus no displaced people with grievences that would justify an aggression level higher than OTL Morocco vis-à-vis Spain. Even if it's Mers-el-Kébir and its contiguous Oran, do they really need to expel the Arabs? Couldn't they just offer this smaller group full citizenship rights?

A French Mers-El-Kébir would probably not be significantly worse than Spanish Ceuta and Melilla are to Morocco (though it would remain a huge source of contention, given how adamant Algerian nationalists were about independence for all of Algeria). However, a surviving French Oran, or French Algiers (which would both have to expand beyond the immediate vicinity, of the city, lest they don't have water to drink, and would have to import all their food) would be orders of magnitude worse in terms of potential conflict.

Oran is the second city of Algeria, not some fairly small city that hasn't been under Algerian control for centuries. Algerian nationalists will absolutely not tolerate the place remaining with France. Algeria will do everything in its power to make life miserable for people living in the French exclave to compel France to leave the place.

With regards to Oran, France probably would have to expel the non-loyalist Arabs to eliminate a Fifth Column (as organized strikes, and terrorism would be endemic, as they had been for the past several years). Most Algerians didn't want French citizenship, they wanted Algerian citizenship in an independent Algeria. The Harki, and some Urban elites might take up the offer, but most wouldn't.