Fear, Loathing and Cheesesteaks on the Campaign Trail '96

*Notices Title* OwO What's this?
A timeline based on the 1996 United States presidential election inspired by a post I made on the Alternate Presidents and PMs board.

What happened to A Thousand Points of Light, your amazing timeline you should all totally check out *wink* *nudge*?
Don't worry, it's not on hiatus or anything. I'll try updating both as regularly as I can, but to be honest I feel a little sapped for energy on that particular project, so I decided to do something fun. Y'know, to get my creative juices flowing.

Don't you have better things to do?
You pose a great point, fictional reader I'm making up in my head: I do have exams literally this week, but screw it. I've studied enough. Plus it keeps me off the streets so... eh.

So, what's this about?
You'll find out soon enough.

Seriously?
Hate to be a tease but... nah.

Well, what are you waiting for? Get on with it!
My pleasure.
 
Chapter 1.0: It Begins
Anyone Left? The Search for a Clinton challenger in 1996

-The Progressive, May 1, 1995

“In the farm country of western Iowa, where disenchantment with Washington frequently builds into a political cyclone, Bill Clinton has stirred some mighty winds. “Among people in Iowa, there's a real frustration with Clinton,” says John Norris, a veteran farm activist who knows the political landscape in these parts as well as anyone. “You hear disappointment in people's voices. There's a sense that he hasn't handled the Presidency that well.”

The President's support for the North American Free Trade Agreement and the General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs, along with his stumbles on health care and a host of bread-and-butter issues, have lowered his stock with the family farmers, teachers, and factory workers who form the backbone of the Democratic Party in Iowa and other states.

In the past, Democratic Presidents carrying that sort of baggage into Iowa would have encountered serious rumblings about a challenge. But as Clinton and his aides sweep across the Hawkeye State this spring in preparation for next February's first-in-the-nation caucuses, they are not running into anything like the resistance that Lyndon Johnson or Jimmy Carter met with.

“It's pretty quiet out here,” says Norris, who ran Jesse Jackson's 1988 campaign in Iowa. “People just aren't energized the way they were in the past. The frustration with Clinton may be there, but I just don't hear a great clamoring for another candidate. I don't think people are up for that sort of fight.”

-

On the evening of the 6th of May, 1995, two men were having a conversation in one of the numerous examination rooms of the Moses Taylor Hospital in Scranton, Pennsylvania. One is Robert P. Casey, the former Governor of Pennsylvania. With him, his general practitioner, John Armitage, the doctor having just examined the Governor, the recipient of a lung and heart transplant just three years ago to combat his hereditary amyloidosis.

“I have some good news, and some bad news, Mr. Governor.”

Governor Casey sighed. “What’s the bad news,” he said, forlornly.

“My duty is not to conceal the truth from you,” said the surgeon. “The disease appears to have come back in remission. I’m sorry.”

The former Governor replied, under his breath: "Great. I’m done for."

"Now, Mr. Governor, you can’t say that you’re finished," Doctor Armitage quickly shot back. “The disease appears not to be as serious as we once thought. Rest assured, we have a whole range of possible treatments.”

“What kind of treatments?”

“All kinds.”

Later in the evening, after a debrief of the numerous treatment programs the Governor could/would take, Casey ads: “This matter is to be a secret. Between you and me, capiche?”

And, for a time, it was.
 
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Chapter 1.1: The Candidates Emerge, Part I
It was one day in the Spring of ‘95. I remember picking up the phone and Dad just kinda told me “I’m running for President.” I couldn’t believe it myself; but, then again, I don’t think anyone could imagine what would follow, back then.

-Former Governor Robert P. Casey’s son, Bob Casey, Jr., interviewed on MSNBC, 19 October, 2007

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“Ladies and gentlemen, I welcome you to this fine Thursday afternoon, outside the Independence Hall. I wish to begin my spiel today with a passage from the Constitution: “we the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union…”

Two hundred or so years ago, just outside this hall, a group of men gathered and, with these simple words, launched America's improbable experiment in democracy. Patriots who had traveled across the ocean to escape tyranny and persecution finally made their declaration of independence at a convention that lasted through the spring of 1787.

These men and women were people just like you and me. They were workers, teachers, soldiers, chaplains, doctors. However, my question to you all, is ‘would the people of America, the freedom fighters and rabble-rousers, be proud of what we have built?’ Sure, we may have a good economy and a popular president; but think about this: the average wage for a working man hasn’t risen in over thirty years. Millions of children are still sentenced to die every day, with little to no restriction. We’re sitting on top of what could be one of the world’s worst political disasters in Yugoslavia.

That’s why I can announce you that I’m running for President of the United States in 1996.

*cheering, applause*

This is not a perfect party. We are not a perfect nation. Yet, we are called to a perfect mission: to feed the hungry, house the homeless, to teach those who have not been taught, and to provide jobs for the jobless. However, it appears that our representative, as a party, in the White House has failed to follow up on these promises, preferring instead to support big business over the rights of the little man!

*applause*

I’ve been in politics for more than thirty years, and I have never seen such a level of incompetence in the Clinton administration or the current Democratic National Congress. *cheers, whistles* The American people are impatient with promises from Washington. They want performance. And they're right to be skeptical. Bill Clinton told us he would, quote, "end welfare as we know it." Well, he's been president now for almost a thousand days, three-quarters of it with heavy Democratic majorities in Congress. How far has he gotten? He spent $33 billion of the taxpayers’ money on welfare as we know it. During his presidency, nearly a million more people have enrolled in welfare as we know it. And today, 600,000 more children are living on welfare as we know it. But Bill Clinton hasn't changed one word of federal law to actually improve people’s lives as we know it. Not one. Not only that, but he has shown himself as an enemy to unions and workers’ rights. He supported measures that destroy the Second Amendment.

Why do the Dems keep losing elections? Why did they lose so horribly in ‘94? I’ll tell you why: because they refuse to deal with the real issues, the social ones, and because they have turned away from their faith and pride. *applause* The politicos in Washington always said that I’d never run on more than on a single issue, the pro-life one. But they’re wrong! *cheering* I’m gonna champion the rights of workers! I’m gonna champion the rights of gun owners! I’m running for President of the United States, and I know in my heart that I’m gonna win.”

-Former Governor Bob Casey (D-PA) at a rally in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 1st June, 1995

One of the longest of long shots in American political history unfolded in the form of the 1996 campaign of the former Governor of Pennsylvania, Robert P. Casey, for United States president.

At a time when the Democratic party was shifting to the center, Casey – who, if he was known at all outside of Pennsylvania apart from his seemingly militant opposition to abortion (as was seen in Planned Parenthood v. Casey (1992)) - came from the socially conservative wing of the Democratic party, the vast majority of which had been ousted in the Republican Revolution just two years ago. At first he seemed like an unlikely candidate for the Democratic nomination.

Although it was not unheard of for incumbent Presidents to face challenges in the primaries, Bill Clinton had overseen a superb economy, was strongly supported by the Democratic Party, and it appeared that the Democrats were afraid to do anything that might be seen as weakening national unity, lest they allow the Republicans to win.

Casey was, for the lack of a better term, a self-described “industrial populist,” a political type that could be successful in the urban rust belt he had come from, but which was regarded with more skepticism in the south and midwest, both areas which were very strongly supportive of right-to-work measures. Perot appeared to have given populism a bad name among the liberal elites during his 1992 campaign for the presidency. Unlike Perot, however, Casey was not a lunatic, nor a firebrand; rather he was a consensus builder, and that was to work to his advantage.

Casey knew the system would favor a candidate who started early and who could attract enough interest to gain momentum early on and gain name recognition, so that he might appear to be winning, or at least doing well, every time a primary was held. Casey strongly believed he had a shot in such a contest, and that he could position himself as a more likable, conservative antidote to the Clinton administration, expanding upon a base of blue-collar Democrats to include middle class Independents who felt disenfranchised by both the Republican Party’s sudden switch to the right. Casey believed that the Rockefeller Republican branch would react to a voice more moderate than, say, Phil Gramm or Pat Buchanan.

Similarly, around the same time, a second populist candidate emerged.”

-From Dark and White Horses: Lessons Learned from the 1996 Presidential Campaign by Jeffrey Toobin, 1999

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“Look with me into this harbor… to understand America is to see it through this lady's eyes. She promises freedom, not a free ride. She promises fairness, not favoritism. And she promises unlimited hope, not a guaranteed result. She welcomes us to this island of freedom between two great oceans not to wring our hands but to use our hands and our hearts and minds to fulfill the obligation that comes with the gift of liberty. I undertake that obligation today: to make America a more fair, just, and prosperous society offering the greatest measure of individual freedom and opportunity that the world has ever known. I will work to make our freedom grow, to shine hope's light into every corner, and to make room for every American's talents so that they will soar beyond limits! But above all else, And I will win and restore the pride of the American people!”

-Governor Pete Wilson (R-CA)’s announcement for his Presidential campaign, in front of the Statue of Liberty in New York City, New York, August 28, 1995
 

Zwinglian

Banned
This is gonna be tough for Casey, even if Juanita Broaddrick comes forward. Still hope he wins, he was a really good governor
 
Hmm, I’m interested. Will the Gumbo connections go beyond the title and basic premise? If so, I’ll have to steel myself for another 1,000 page odyssey that drives America directly into a spiky brick wall made of crocodiles.
 
Chapter 1.2: The Candidates Emerge, Part Deux
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“On November the 8th, in the most dramatic election since 1932, the American people said to their government: “stop the taxing!” “Stop the spending!” “Stop the regulating!” And with a Georgian, Newt Gingrich Speaker of the House, with a majority of both houses of Congress, they will be stopped.

But our work is not finished. We’re still one victory away from changing the course of American history. We’re still one victory away from getting our money back, and our freedom back, and our country back, and that one victory is defeating Bill Clinton in 1996.

With a love for America, and a resolve to make her right again, I announce myself as a candidate for the President of the United States.”

-Senator Phil Gramm (R-TX)’s announcement for his Presidential campaign, in College Station, Texas, February 24, 1995

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“I want to thank all of you, for coming out here, outside this Courthouse, to support me. I want to thank my mother, my Aunt, Mary Jane, the Governor, Congressman Duncan, my dear friend Howard Baker; to Bill Crisp and Skeeter Sheels and all of you from Maryville and Blount County, and to Amy and Jerry Wagner, who bought my parents’ home after my father died years ago, and who let us go back there last night for a television show. But most of all, I want to thank Honey and our children for supporting, and permitting me, to do this. To have a chance to be the President of the United States!”

-Former Secretary of Education Lamar Alexander (R-TN)’s announcement for his Presidential campaign in Maryville, Tennessee, February 28, 1995

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“Joining us from Dallas, Mr. Ross Perot. Two years into the president’s term, Mr Perot, how do you think Bill Clinton doing?
-I don't grade him I leave that up the American people, and he’s got a lot of work to do, so we’ll let the people decide how he’s doing.
If you could sit down with him in a one on one conversation. What would you tell him or what advice would you give him as an individual?
-Well, I made that question once, and I made a mistake of answering it. And the press beat up on me for ninety days. I think I'll skip that one too. If-if there were such a conversation, and it would be a private conversation and should be treated as such — the one thing I don’t want to do is get into, uh… just, you know, criticizing or making comments from the stands on what the American people are standing on.
In the Republican Party, the field is growing with Bob Dole about to announce, Lamar Alexander and Pat Buchanan announcing earlier in April and February. How do you how do you make of this field right now?
-Well, they’ve got a lot of candidates. The problem that I would think they're going to have is that it cost so much to run a primary. I’m told it cost forty million dollars, drawn in the Republican primary. That sort of situation seems to be corrected right there. There’s a finite amount of campaign money that's available for primaries. If you have too many people chasing it, you've got a tough situation. So it’s going to be tough for everybody to get enough money to run. Part of this is driven by the fact that there are large number of primaries, in a short period of time; you’ll have to buy a lot of television time. This will complicate the process. It won't be as simple is the best person winning, rather It’ll be driven by who has the money to win.

[...]

Do you think do you think Mr Perot that there will be a third party candidacy in ‘96?
-I don't know. Time will tell. It will be interesting to see how that works out, who the two candidates are. My dream is that we would have George Washington running on one party in time and whoever your other favorite president is, say Abraham Lincoln or Thomas Jefferson, or whoever you like, running as the other, and we could all just go down and say heads we win, tails we win.
What do your members tell you about what role they want you to play?
-Right now we are in a mode of really watching to see if the Republican Party will deliver on its promises. We feel the most responsible thing we can do is wait and give Congress a chance to deliver, not just the Republican Congress, but the White House too. A chance to deliver. All these things that President Clinton will be running on as his base campaign platform in ‘96. They could do, now, and the people want it now. But this goes the difference of talking about it, and doing it. You need a party delivers. We’ll just have to sit down and figure out what we do then. But, right now, we have no personal goals, the only goal we have or to do is what’s right, and what’s good for our country. And right now we feel best thing for our country is to let the newly elected group, Republicans and Democrats… Give them the chance to deliver on their campaign promises. They got elected by promising these things, now it’s time to deliver.

[...]

As you look back from… uh… the early ‘90s, you’re now a household name. What's your observations on the role that you’re playing in American politics right now?
-My role is to try to keep everybody focused on these issues that will determine how our children and grandchildren will live, and anything I can do to accomplish that. I am certainly willing to work night and day to get done.
Are you interested in running for president?
-I have never been interested in public life. It does not drive me to be elected and be in office. On the other hand, nobody has been luckier in this country than I have. And from the time I was born, I had most wonderful parents, I've had every opportunity anyone could have, and nobody owes this country more than I do, and the thing that would break my heart, is an elderly man, say for a jack number of years, I’m sitting around in a rocking chair, you know, I was nobody from nowhere and I was only limited by what I could do and how hard I was willing to work. And I have had a wonderful life in this great, unique country. And it would break my heart to turn out the lights, realizing that people like me no longer have that opportunity. That's what drives me—that’s it. I want the job done, and I’m thrilled for other people do it, but it has to be done.
And so if there is no one in the race that does what you say needs to be done, what would you do?
-Well I surely, surely, with all of their pollsters and image makers and make up artists, these folks are smart enough to figure out. I’ve had some private conversations that I’ve spoke to your audience. I won’t say who they were with but they can figure out, you know, all kinds people from both parties, and I’ve said to them: if I came to you before the Kentucky Derby, and said: ‘you know, I got this really great old meat at the house, I'd like to run just because it’s a member of the family, and I’d love to see him on the track,’ and they’d say: ‘Ross, you don’t put anything in the Kentucky Derby that can’t win. You got to get a thoroughbred that can win. Nobody would could consider putting a horse in the Kentucky Derby that they didn't think could win.’ It’s very important that we only put people in these races that will do the job that needs to be done. I don’t mean actors, I mean people who have strong convictions who will deliver for the American people and doing this won’t be pretty.
Before we let you go and I don't want to put words in your mouth but are you saying that you are not ruling out possible independent bid for the White House?
-We will work with our members. We will do what we have to do. We would like to see the two party system work. I have no personal goals. I’ve said again and again I will sweep the streets, if that will help solve these problems. Whatever it takes to get it done, we will do it. But I remember all the people who are active as independent voters will reach a consensus on that right now. We’re still, in every positive constructive way we can think of, urging the two party system to work.
And when do you think that could come? What kind of a timetable?
-I don’t know. I don’t know, and I'm not being cute with you. We’ve gotta get through that. I wouldn’t hold him to the hundred days. I hate the Hundred Days mindset, you remember when President Clinton said all he was going to do one hundred days? My advice was take your time and do it right, if it takes 150 days, then who cares? Let’s do it right. I think that applies to the issue here. The main thing is are you going to do it, or was I just campaign talk? Let's hope they get it done, and that it’s not watered down. You can have reforms with the right label on them that are not reforms. You’ve got a balanced budget amendment, you want one with alligator teeth in it that does the job. If you've got a line-item veto, you want a line-item veto that does the job. You’ve got campaign finance reform, that's a little monster that you're going to have to work very hard on, because everybody's going to hate it to say it. If you try to put in term limits, there's real term limits and then there's joke term limits. We want real term limits, so that being in Washington is a period of service, not a career. Those are things that we have to get done, don't hold them to a hundred days. It takes a little longer to find at some point, the American people will either have confidence that it's being done, or will lose confidence. Time will tell.”

-C-SPAN Interview with Entrepreneur Ross Perot (RE-TX), aired March 13, 1995

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“It is good to be back home again. As you know, Shelley and I spent ten wonderful weeks here in the winter of ‘92. And we will never forget your generosity and your support when we came up here to new Hampshire and you and I stood together to say to the national establishment of both parties, "Turn around. You're going the wrong way." We may have lost that nomination, my friends, but you and I have won the battle for the heart and soul of the Republican Party!

Four years ago, we came here to say no to tax hikes and no to quota bills, and now every Republican says no to tax hikes and no to quota bills and no to affirmative action. So, we want first to welcome the prodigal sons home to their father's house. But we shall remind them the Buchanan brigades are not leap year conservatives. We have borne the day's heat and we have labored in these vineyards from the very first hour. And we stand here today to resume command of the revolution that we began here three years ago, because we intend to lead that revolution to triumph and into the White House in 1996!”

-Former White House Director of Communications Pat Buchanan (R-PA)’s announcement for his Presidential campaign, in Manchester, New Hampshire, March 20, 1995

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“If we want to remain a free people, then we will have to become again. A people capable to respect the principles from which our freedom to derives. We will have to become again, a people capable of adopting the view of human nature that doesn’t say passion excuses everything, but says instead that God has given us the ability, and the wherewithal to govern our passions and to establish for ourselves a society in which freedom, because it is ordered and based on self-government is a blessing, and not a curse. And so I want to say that I am going to be in the course of the next months and, difficult as it may be, I’ll be raising that standard in the arena of Presidential politics, where I have decided to where I have decided to throw my hat in the ring.

And I formally declare here and now that I will be and I'm a candidate for the Republican nomination for president of the United States!”

-Former Assistant Secretary of State for International Organization Affairs Alan Keyes (R-MD)’s announcement for his Presidential campaign, in San Diego, California, March 26, 1995

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“My fellow Americans, today I offer my ideas, my experience and my energy to the American people to lead this great nation into the 21st century as the next president of the United States. I do so humbly in the presence of monuments of America's great presidents, especially Abraham Lincoln, the founder of the Republican Party, whose deep commitment to equality and opportunity I strongly share.

In 1994, Republican representatives won the House with a 10-point contract, the Contract with America. In 1996, I intend to win the other house off to our left, the White House — with 10 commitments to America: to balance the budget through spending reduction; to begin to pay off the national debt; to foster economic growth through enactment of a flat tax, to reduce violent crime; to improve education with innovations like privatization and charter schools; to reform health care through the free market; to provide strong leadership in international affairs; to contain weapons of mass destruction; to control terrorism; and to champion tolerance and freedom, especially a woman's right to choose.”

-Senator Arlen Specter (R-PA)’s announcement for his Presidential campaign in Washington D.C., March 30, 1995

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“When I went off to war, it was to defend a community of values unique in all the world. I came back sustained by the love and generosity of friends and neighbors who renewed my sense of life's possibilities. And over these years, they have given me the opportunity for service which I can never hope to repay. And because they restored my spirit in a time of trial, I have dedicated myself to restoring the spirit of America. (Cheers, applause.) And so today, tempered by adversity, seasoned by experience, mindful of the world as it is yet confident it can be made better, I have come home to Kansas with a grateful heart to declare that I am a candidate for the presidency of the United States!”

-Senator Bob Dole (R-KS)’s announcement for his Presidential campaign, in Topeka, Kansas, April 10, 1995

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“...I believe that America is poisoning itself, that we are destroying this God- blessed nation of ours, and I'm going to carry that message to as many states as I can, and make sure that my good friends, every one of them a noble competitor, all of the eight stand head and shoulders in character and integrity above the occupant of the White House, but I want my friends; Bob, our World War II hero; Phil Gramm, Pat and Allen; my governor in California; Lamar Alexander, excellent governor from Tennessee; Dick Lugar, who has like me a deep interest in foreign affairs, and Allen Specter — I mean — I said Alan Keyes, Arlen Specter, who like me wants a flat tax. It's new to him, I've been for it for 27 years.

All these men, I want them to focus in on the social issues. Yes we have an impending financial disaster. Six trillion dollars of debt is a moral issue, and it will reach $6 trillion, by anybody's fair analysis before we begin, through a painful discipline — 30 year process — to eliminate that debt.

The main focus of my announcement will be in New York, on my 40th wedding anniversary, Sally's birthday, Easter Sunday. We will be in that great state with the wonderful motto "Live Free or Die", New Hampshire, on income tax day, Saturday the 15th. I'll be there at two places to talk about moral decay at one and economic collapse at the other.

But today, Thomas Jefferson's birthday — Good Friday will be a travel day — I am humbled to announce my declaration for the Republican nomination for the presidency of the United States of America!”

-Representative Bob Dornan (R-CA-46)’s announcement for his Presidential campaign, at the National Law Enforcement Officers Memorial, in Washington D.C., April 13, 1995

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“A massive car bomb exploded outside of a large Federal Building in downtown Oklahoma City, shattering that building, killing children, killing federal employees, military men and civilians.

The chaos in downtown Oklahoma City did indeed resemble Beirut after what police believed to be a 1,200-pound car bomb ripped through the nine-story Federal Building, shortly after 9 O’Clock this morning. More than 500 people were already in their offices, and at least 50 children were in a daycare center on the second floor.”

-Peter Jennings, anchor of World News Tonight, April 19, 1995

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“My friends, before this celebration begins again, let us take a moment to think together as human beings, as people who are compassionate, about those in Oklahoma City who have suffered a terrible tragedy. We come today -- Mayor Goldsmith has addressed you, I address you as one who worked with law enforcement, people in health services, with the governor of our state, with the FBI as necessary. We wish them all the best as they move through this period of national tragedy visited upon Oklahoma City. May we take just a moment of silence to recognize their problems. I thank you.


Twenty-eight years ago I came to you, my friends and neighbors, to say that I would like to serve you as your mayor, to unite the real city of Indianapolis, to forge a new standard of excellence that would inspire a nation whose cities were in crisis. Today, surrounded by so many achievements of great Hoosiers who shared our vision and who built to fulfill those dreams, I come to you with a new vision for our country. I come declare that I am a candidate for president of the United States.”


-Senator Dick Lugar (R-IN)’s announcement for his Presidential campaign, in Indianapolis, Indiana, April 19, 1995

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“The bombing in Oklahoma City… was an attack on innocent children and defenseless citizens. It was an act of cowardice, and it was evil. The United States will not tolerate it, and I will not allow the people of this country to be intimidated.”

-Statement from President Bill Clinton (D-AR), April 20, 1995

“President Clinton said he would bring healthcare ‘back to Americans.’ Yet he couldn’t pass his broken healthcare system even with both Houses of Government controlled by Democrats. Bob Casey, on the other hand, knows first-hand the requirement of a healthcare system that works for Americans, and was able to pass landmark legislation, even in a Republican-controlled state congress. If you support a man who fights for the health of his own people, vote Bob Casey for President.”

-Pro-Bob Casey Ad aired nationwide on June 15, 1995

“Is Lamar Alexander too liberal? As Governor he raised taxes and fees fifty-eight times, and doubled state spending. He even signed a bill allowing violent criminals to be eligible for parole, after serving less than half of their prison sentence. He’s just too liberal.

We need a proven conservative leader. A balanced budget and tax cuts, conservative judges, no parole for violent criminals, workfare, not welfare.

Choose the conservative candidate — Bob Dole.”

-Anti-Lamar Alexander/Pro-Bob Dole Ad aired nationwide (apart from in Tennessee) on July 1, 1995

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ANNOUNCER: The indictment charges against Timothy McVeigh and Terry Nichols, former Army buddies with a grudge against the government, state that they planned the bombing, selected the Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City as their target, bought and stole materials for the bomb, and built it.

JOSEPH HARTZLER (Chief Prosecutor): ‘We have McVeigh specifically charged with delivered the bomb to the Murrah Federal Building in a truck he rented under a false name, and having detonated the bomb at the Murrah Building.’

PATRICK RYAN (US Attorney): ‘I intend to recommend to the Department of Justice and the Attorney General of the United States that the Death Penalty be sought against both McVeigh and Nichols.’”

-NBC Nightly News, August 10, 1995

AMES STRAW POLL RESULTS
1. (tie) Senator Phil Gramm (R-TX) - 2,582 (24.4%)
1. (tie) Senator Bob Dole (R-KS) - 2,582 (24.4%)
3. Columnist Pat Buchanan (R-VA) - 1,922 (18.1%)
4. Former Governor Lamar Alexander (R-TN) - 1,156 (10.9%)
5. Former Ambassador Alan Keyes (R-MD) - 804 (7.6%)
6. CEO Morry Taylor (R-MI) - 803 (7.6%)
7. Senator Richard Lugar (R-IN) - 466 (4.4%)
8. Governor Pete Wilson (R-CA) - 129 (1.2%)
9. Representative Bob Dornan (R-CA-46) - 87 (0.8%)
10. Senator Arlen Specter (R-PA) - 67 (0.6%)”

-The Washington Post, August 19, 1995

“Two million illegal aliens in California. 20,000 in our prisons. 400,000 crowd our schools. Every year they cost us $3 billion tax dollars. Bill Clinton has fought a war on Governor Wilson’s state, forcing us to support them. Clinton fought Proposition 187, cut border agents and gave citizenship for illegal aliens with criminal records. We pay the taxes. We are the victims. Our children get short-changed. And there’s only one man who can stop it.

Vote Pete Wilson for President, a man for Americans.”

-Pro-Pete Wilson ad aired nationally on September 1, 1995

“WILSON CAMPAIGN IN FINANCIAL TROUBLE; GOVERNOR FORCED TO MORTGAGE HOUSE”

-The San Diego Union-Tribune, September 6, 1995

“I assure every one of my supporters and detractors that my campaign is not dying. Even if I may have needed to mortgage my house, so what? I am not going to pull out of the race so soon. In fact, I literally just got back from a fundraiser dinner in San Diego. Do you know how much money I raised? Two-hundred thousand dollars!”

-Statement from Pete Wilson on CNN, September 7, 1995

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“Well, it’s no secret: today; I’m here to announce that I am running for President of the United States. To say the least, this is an unusual shot for the candidacy, and I expect there are some skeptics in the crowd here today. But I’m throwing my hat in the ring, in full confidence, that this campaign for President will succeed. In the last few decades, I’ve been working in one of the most entrepreneurial sectors of American life: magazine publishing. And as any entrepreneur will tell you, really big changes are made by those who take risks and challenge conventional wisdom. The people love something new and unexpected. I'm running because I believe the American people share the same desire for an end to politics as usual.”

-Steve Forbes (R-NY)’s announcement for his Presidential campaign, at the National Press Building in Washington D.C., September 22, 1995


OPINION POLLING FOR THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES, 1996

SEN. BOB DOLE (R-KS) - 20%
COLUMNIST PAT BUCHANAN (R-VA) - 14%
FMR. GOV. LAMAR ALEXANDER, SEN. ARLEN SPECTER (R-PA) - 11%
GOV. PETE WILSON (R-CA) - 10%
ENTREPRENEUR STEVE FORBES (R-NY), SEN. PHIL GRAMM (R-TX) - 6%
REP. BOB DORNAN (R-CA-46) - 5%
FMR. ECOSOC AMBASSADOR ALAN KEYES (R-MD) - 2%
BUSINESSMAN MORRY TAYLOR (R-MI) - LESS THAN 1%
UNSURE/NO OPINION- 15%

OPINION POLLING FOR THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES, 1996
PRESIDENT BILL CLINTON (D-AR) - 78%
FMR. GOVERNOR BOB CASEY (D-PA) - 11%
PERENNIAL CANDIDATE LYNDON LAROUCHE (D-VA), FMR. MAYOR JAMES D. GRIFFIN (D-NY) - LESS THAN 1%
UNSURE/NO OPINION - 20%”

-The New York Times, September 25, 1995
 
@Zwinglian Yeah, don't worry, I try to stick to my commitments as much as I can. I've had exams coming at me in the past few weeks, but luckily that means I now have plenty of free time to develop this TL and any other ideas I'm working on.

@Roberto El Rey Some ideas for this TL have been borrowed from @Drew's work, barring the title. Be prepared for a much more competitive '96 election.
 

Zwinglian

Banned
Specter vs Casey would be interesting. Two Pennsylvania politicians who both dissent from their party on social issues. Would see a lot of democrats voting republican and a lot of republicans voting democrat in that case
 
Chapter 1.3: Primary Colours, Part One
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

The majority of Governor Casey’s exploration committee staff were later transferred to his presidential campaign, including his son, Bob Casey Jr., chief aide Tony May and, most notably, fellow Pennsylvanian congressman John Murtha, who was also a pro-life Democrat, albeit one who ran more to the left on other issues, including foreign policy. One of the more notable figures was Casey’s campaign manager, Tad Devine, a manager for Michael Dukakis’ bid in 1988, as well as Bob Kerrey’s bid in 1992 who had, seemingly with the wisdom of “any experience is good experience” in his head, decided to hitch aboard Governor Casey’s campaign.

From mid-to-late 1995, Casey was able to raise sufficient money from various Pennsylvanian donors to begin campaigning. In particular he picked up a majority of his funding from various national pro-life organizations and, interestingly enough, Rust Belt car industries, including most notably Chrysler, with which he had close ties (the former CEO of Chrysler, Lee Iacocca, was a rumoured candidate for the Senate seat vacated by John Heinz).

His early campaigning in Iowa, New Hampshire and Louisiana in September and November 1995 were not taken seriously at all: few people there knew who he was and in many states, perennial candidates such as conspiracy theorist Lyndon LaRouche outperformed him. At the time, Governor Casey travelled around these states with his family, and one or two volunteer aides, addressing gatherings of Democrats in rural or suburban settings. Mostly he campaigned on a program of returning honesty to Washington, with socially conservative views that could be supported by Southern Democrats, and contrasting this with President Clinton’s more socially liberal views. He ran as an outsider trying to speak up for “the concerns of ordinary Americans like yourselves.” He was a “fresh face” offering a contrast to “the Washington elite.” Initially, Casey spoke before rural and working class audiences, the ones who had catapulted him into the governorship of Pennsylvania twice beforehand. His brand of populism began to catch on, in part because the governor sounded closer to them than many of the established politicians, or at least, that was what his supporters, the few he actually had at the beginning of the primary season, believed.

It was during the primary campaign that Casey first attracted attention with his “ambitious new plans,” which he believed “would be supported by every right-minded American, both at home and in congress.” Interestingly, the topic of abortion, of which Casey was predicted to have run as a single-issue candidate against, took a backseat, in favour of his support for a Balanced Budget amendment and his “Health USA” and “Keeping Jobs and Tax Dollars at Home” plans. His support for a balanced budget amendment widened many eyes, with many critics of his administration pointing out he had run the state deficit to record numbers, but was generally welcomed by many more conservative Democrats, and the stance helped to paint him even more so as an outsider candidate, whilst his “Health USA Bill,” drafted off of Bob Kerrey’s healthcare plan he formulated on his 1992 campaign, and was more or less a universal healthcare plan in all but name. Casey frequently criticized Clinton for his inability to pass his healthcare legislation, even under a Democratic-controlled Congress. The bill would cover the vast majority of healthcare, but, adhering to Casey’s strict Roman Catholicism, notably not universal access to abortion or contraceptives. He contrasted his plan, which he campaigned would “work for every American, blue-collar or grey,” with numerous accounts, some even first-hand, of labourers injured on the job and unable to pay medical bills. His strong support and appeal to unionists was expanded by Casey’s “Keeping Jobs and Tax Dollars at Home” plan, which was designed to target outsourcing by preventing state contracts from going offshore, through imposing preferences to companies that will perform business in the territorial boundaries of the United States, in order to provide incentives to keep jobs and state funds in the US. Many economists attacked this plan, noting that placing foreign companies at a disadvantage could lead to a backlash against American providers of services and goods abroad, and a decrease in foreign investment in the United States, further aggravating U.S. trade imbalances; but the message struck a chord with workers, who, although not living under the vacuum of employment Ross Perot predicted NAFTA would bring, were still not exactly pleased with the prospect of jobs disappearing either.

However, the main trouble of his campaign, him facing off against a popular incumbent was his main trouble; especially being seen by the general populace, if they knew who he even was, as an geriatric “zero-charisma.” His campaign, as aggressive as it may have been, still made him only well-known an unpopular and at times irrelevant candidate outside of certain crowds in the midwest and Rust Belt. The President, despite the Republican Revolution and other scandals and gaffes, was still the most popular candidate by a wide margin.

Clinton refused to debate Casey, which, although pointing out how much of a small-name candidate he was, managed to unintentionally grow support, with a famous photo op of him standing next to an empty podium with the caption “WHAT’S HE SCARED OF?”

By now, it was only weeks until the Iowa Caucus, and Clinton was leading by 90%. Casey’s campaign had somewhat stagnated since September-November 1995, and he was undoubtedly going to lose the state of Iowa by a wide margin, a harsh blow to his run, given his strong support from rural regions. He faced a critical decision with how to deal with it: either run negative attack ads against Clinton or run a positive campaign. Knowing with the economy in good shape, the public would be more interested in President Clinton’s job performance than in the numerous minor scandals that had emerged during his first term, Casey chose to run a positive campaign, including repeatedly campaigning on his policy ideas and the message of populism and a return to the ‘good ol’ days.’

But it hardly mattered. When the Iowa caucus came around on the 12th of February, Casey was crushed by Clinton, only achieving a measly 16%, barely over the threshold for delegates being allocated to him.

Iowa Caucus results
FWtfZTq.png

Clinton: 83.44% (1,667)
Casey
: 16.56% (332)
Others: >1% (2)

Still, it was a huge achievement to the tiny campaign, and an embarrassment to the popular incumbent. A small and almost entirely insignificant one, yes, but an embarrassment nonetheless. The New Hampshire primary was a complete landslide, although Casey counted the liberal New England state a lost cause, so it wasn’t a total failure.

New Hampshire Primary results
6rB5sKe.png

Clinton: 86.0% (132,989)
Casey
: 13.93% (21,541)
Others: >1% (108)

However, the Delaware primary on February 24th, a state in which Casey had heavily campaigned in, went to Clinton with a vast majority, being allocated only 3 delegates out of 14. It was a crushing blow to the campaign, worse than their loss in Iowa.

Delaware Primary results
BrkHMk0.png

Clinton: 75.4% (8,399)
Casey
: 24.5% (2,731)
LaRouche: 1.0% (111)
Others: >1% (0)

Finally, however, on the 27th February, as the primaries in Arizona and the Dakotas were being held, things began to look up for the campaign as Casey, through some sort of miracle, managed his first win of the campaign.

Arizona Primary results
p0PNRMk.png

Clinton: 74.3% (64,464)
Casey
: 24.2% (20,996)
Others: 1.5% (1,358)

North Dakota Primary results
4DHUiOD.png

Casey: 68.5% (12,916)
Reimers
: 14.4% (2,715)
LaRouche: 12.5% (2,357)
Others/Uncommitted: 41.6% (7,844)

South Dakota Primary results
9yizlwz.png

Clinton
: 63.5% (32,477)
Casey
: 36.1% (18,463)
Others: >1% (204)

Casey heavily campaigned on his victory in North Dakota, speaking in Bismarck about how “middle America” was “fighting back.” However, his win was primarily blamed on the fact that Clinton, the frontrunner and incumbent President supported by the North Dakota Democratic-Nonpartisan League Party, for some reason, had been left off the ballot, leaving Casey to win in a short landslide over the perennial candidates.

However, every other contest on that day Casey lost. In South Dakota, he at least managed a fair 34% of the vote, his highest share in a state he had not won yet, but in Arizona he lost in a landslide. Despite his success in the Midwest, it appeared, to an outsider at the time, it was the beginning for the populist protest campaign. “It looks like the end,” Casey was described as saying to his staff by the end of February.

Final Results as of February 28, 1996:
America-Dem-1996-1.png

Clinton, despite a few hiccups in the Midwest, appears to be the leading candidate for the race, helped by his position as a popular incumbent President.

Casey still continues his campaign, proud of his success in North Dakota and good results in South Dakota, despite being down in both contests won and delegate count.


REPUBLICAN PRIMARY


The 1996 Republican Presidential Primaries were a clown car. That was the best way to describe them: an overstuffed car which spills out a seemingly improbable number of red-nosed and bewigged jesters.

Governor Pete Wilson, who was a youthful candidate and moderate on social issues, but heavily campaigned on illegal immigration and welfare reform, and Senator Bob Dole, the new Senate Majority Leader, Richard Nixon’s hatchet man, Gerald Ford’s running mate in 1976, and a candidate in 1988, who was more conservative on social issues and generally liked more by the Republican base because of his insider status, frequently fought to attain “front-runner” status.

Wilson immediately ran into problems when he almost immediately had throat surgery that kept him from announcing – or even talking – for months. As a result, he fell behind in campaigning and his wife, Gayle, was forced to campaign for him many times. Wilson also ran into numerous monetary issues, finding himself unable to fund the campaign many times. Eventually, he found wealthy Californian donors and Political Action Committees willing to donate to his cause, but the economic problems, in addition to his health issues, severely hampered him. Nonetheless, he persisted.

Wilson found success tying Dole to the “Washington insiders” that the Republicans campaigned against just a few years ago. The attacks fit Wilson’s pseudo-populist campaign theme, and he managed to climb through the ranks, but, by the time the actual contests (i.e. the Iowa caucus) came about, the two seemed neck-and-neck.

Lamar Alexander was also touted as a possible frontrunner, who campaigned more on his background, growing up in rural Tennessee and playing himself as “the outsider candidate,” and, although drawing strong support from rural voters and poor whites, was more of a ‘proto-meme candidate’ than anything else, with his affinity for red-and-black plaid shirts and his striking “Lamar!” logo a constant source of parody on shows like Saturday Night Live. It didn’t help that he made his biography the main focus of his campaign, while failing to tie it to that of his rivals, and the vast majority of his campaign points were the exact same as Dole’s.

Phil Gramm, a former Democrat who was the first into the ring, was seen as a possible dark horse in the race, and campaigned mainly to the right of Dole and an ardent supporter of low government spending. However, Gramm, who did not have very good name recognition to begin with, floundered badly and was gradually overtaken by the more mainstream Dole and Wilson.

Specter was an odd choice: the only Republican in the race who was vocally pro-choice (even Wilson said he was “opposed to the practice,” while still “supporting it regardless.”). Despite his at times genuinely conservative positions on issues such as education and international politics, he was unable to shake the image of being more similar to the Democrats than Republicans, with Pat Buchanan in particular being among his harshest critics, labelling him a “pro-death candidate” and “Republican in-name-only.” Still, he garnered a lot of support from liberals in the Republican Party, which, at the time, still existed.

Speaking of Buchanan, his campaign was a mostly paleoconservative one: supporting lowering taxes, including slashing capital gains taxes and ending the inheritance tax, introducing a balanced budget amendment, as well as ending foreign aid, ending NAFTA and being rabidly against illegal immigration. He was a popular candidate, name recognition-wise: he was a popular panelist on The McLaughlin Group and made his name as a critic of both the neoconservative and moderate wings of the Republican Party, as well as the Democratic Party and the Clinton administration. However: name-recognition was not always good recognition; many times he was entirely written off as a candidate, deemed too far-right to win the primary, l His campaign, which relied more on grassroots support, crude rhetoric about how America should “return to the 50’s” and aggressive umbrage of progressive policies (best exemplified by his “the peasants are coming with pitchforks” speech in Nashua, New Hampshire, in the lead up to the New Hampshire primary, a line that quickly became a de facto slogan for the campaign) than actual policy, grew to be supported by far-right figures, including former Grand Wizard of the Ku Klux Klan David Duke, whose endorsement was too much even for Buchanan, who immediately refused his endorsement.

Dick Lugar was a policy wonk. That was the best description of his campaign: a moderate with a long and experienced career as Senator of Indiana, which granted him rural credibility, and an affinity for foreign politics (being former chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee). His campaign on domestic issues, more or less, took the Lamar Alexander route, or “rehash Bob Dole’s platform,” and, outside of many more rural locations outside of the South, he was a mostly irrelevant candidate. Still, many an old truck on Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Michigan country roads had the words “Lugar for President” adorned on their bumper, and he was much more charismatic and charming than the relatively banal Dole.

Steve Forbes was seen by the world as the main originator of the flat tax, which was in actuality wrong, considering Forbes was the last Republican to join the race and by that time literally every single candidate supported a flat tax of some sort. His unprofessional career (having never taken political office before in his life and only being known as the publisher of Forbes Magazine) shied away the majority of the traditional Republican base, and, encountering problems with funding, decided to run on his own money. His charisma, which was likened to that of a bumbling first-grader, didn’t help matters. All in all, his campaign was supported by wealthy businessmen, of which Forbes was one himself, but ignored by almost everyone else.

Finally, if you were looking for far-right fringe candidates: you were truly spoilt for choice. Apart from the aforementioned Buchanan, there were many others, including Alan Keyes, the former Reagan administration official who had entered the ring after two unsuccessful bids for Senate, whose platform was almost the exact same as Buchanan’s, on both foreign and social issues, only coming (literally) in a different colour. Morry Taylor, a businessman and tire entrepreneur whose abrasive nature had earned him the nickname “the Grizz,” was pretty much a non-candidate from the get-go, as exemplified by his book Kill All Lawyers — and other ways to fix the government. Finally, there was Bob Dornan, the Representative from California, who was almost entirely irrelevant on the campaign trail, only garnering attention for how undoubtedly insane he was. His campaign, which was to the right of Buchanan, was, much like Buchanan, frequently written off as someone with zero chance of winning: he acted so bizarrely at times (including saying Dole wasn’t a war hero because he didn’t “bleed for his country” (he did)), that many were honestly in shock he wasn’t already thrown into a psychiatric ward.

It was this clown-car race that led to the disaster that was the primaries, especially the early elections. The Alaska primary, essentially more of a straw poll of the candidates than an actual contest, was held on the 29th of January, was non-binding (no delegates were assigned) and had, much like the Democratic primary in North Dakota, the front-runner/s, with the exception of Buchanan, Forbes, Gramm, Alexander, Dole and Keyes.

Alaska Primary results
udt8reM.png

Buchanan: 34.3% (3,151)
Forbes
: 30.7% (2,820)
Keyes: 15.1% (1,387)
Dole: 10.8% (992)
Alexander: 5.9% (542)
Gramm: 3.0% (275)
Others: >1% (21)

Surprisingly, Buchanan won a close race between Steve Forbes, with Keyes incredibly attaining third-place, knocking the two perceived “front-runners” in the race, Gramm and Dole, out. The straw poll was non-binding, but still a shock to many in the Republican establishment, who had begun to rail behind Dole’s campaign.

The Louisiana caucus, held on February 6th, was even more sparse, with only Gramm, Buchanan and Keyes on the ballot. As a result of Buchanan and Keyes splitting the heavily Conservative vote, and due to simple geographical location (Gramm’s home state of Texas was right next to Louisiana) Gramm won, but barely.

Louisiana Caucus results
Gramm
: 44.34% (28,821)
Buchanan
: 42.5% (27,332)
Keyes: 9.59% (6,233)
Others: 4.03% (2,619)

It was this clown car attitude that led to the utter trainwreck that was the Iowa caucus on the 12th of February. Buchanan, Keyes and Gramm had been busy campaigning in Louisiana, and as a result were not expected to perform well. Dole, a Midwesterner, made Iowa a focal point of his campaigning. Wilson, who was still fresh from his throat surgery, usually had his wife, Gayle, campaign in the Hawkeye State for him.

The result was a mess.

Iowa Caucus results
cn3WG5y.png

Dole: 22.56% (20,580)
Wilson
: 21.32% (19,449)
Alexander: 19.03% (17,360)
Buchanan: 13.26% (12,096)
Lugar: 10.19% (9,295)
Specter: 5.01% (4,570)
Gramm: 4.98% (4,543)
Keyes: 2.0% (1,824)
Others: 1.65% (1,505)

Dole won the state, as he did in 1988, with Wilson coming a close second. Alexander and Lugar split the rural vote, not helpful given Iowa’s location, who in turn split the moderate vote with Arlen Specter. Not only did Buchanan perform well in northwest Iowa, not exactly a surprise given its ultraconservative voting record, but so did Alan Keyes. Gramm, who tirelessly worked towards a close victory in the Louisiana caucus, suffered the worst: gaining barely under 5%. Steve Forbes, unusually, decided to skip the Caucus, probably the best for his campaign, given his background (a billionaire magazine publisher from New Jersey, not a good candidate in the eyes of the predominantly working-class farmers that make up the Iowa Republican base) and awkward campaigning style. Bob Dornan dropped out after Morry Taylor, who also later dropped out, gained more votes than him. Both endorsed Buchanan.

Just over a week later, on the 20th of February, the New Hampshire primaries were held. The GOP Establishment were somewhat concerned, given that Buchanan’s fiery (if not outright fascistic at times) populism and anti-tax positions grew some discontent in the home of the “Live Free Or Die” slogan. Buchanan knew this, and gloated about this worry, stating in a speech “We shocked them in Alaska. Stunned them in Louisiana… They hear the shouts of the peasants from over the hill… All the peasants are coming with pitchforks. We're going to take this over the top.”

At that moment, however, Wilson was able to speak, making a full recovery from his surgery, and begun building up a positive campaign about himself and his biography, focusing on him overcoming adversity (including his throat problems). In mid-February, the Center for Public Integrity, a liberal think tank, issued a report claiming Buchanan’s presidential campaign co-chairman, Larry Pratt, appeared at two meetings organized by white supremacist and anti-government movement leaders. Pratt denied any tie to racism, calling the report “an orchestrated smear” before the primary, but it was enough for the voters to change their mind and hearts towards someone more moderate. Wilson was careful to not run a negative campaign, but his message of more moderate, yet still outsider and populist, conservatism resonated well with New Hampshire Republicans alienated by “Pitchfork Pete’s” brash attack-dog style and far-right slant, and Wilson managed to pull off a victory.

New Hampshire Primary results
eJ7roK8.png

Wilson: 24.28% (49,438)
Dole
: 19.89% (40,499)
Alexander: 15.19% (30,929)
Specter: 13.43% (27,346)
Buchanan: 12.21% (24,861)
Forbes: 10.19% (20,748)
Others: 4.81% (9,794)

Buchanan’s loss made him strongly reconsider his platform, and he begun switching his tune and campaign platform to one that was slightly more moderate, albeit still remaining the most conservative candidate in the race, and appealing more towards Southern voters. Interestingly, Specter came a close fourth, although considering his platform and biography appealed very well with liberal Republican interests that held strong within New England, this was not much of a shock.

On the 24th of February, the Delaware caucuses were held.

Delaware Primary results
dFMcYHH.png

Wilson: 30.42% (9,969)
Alexander
: 27.75% (9,094)
Forbes: 16.97% (5,561)
Dole: 13.33% (4,368)
Keyes: 5.10% (1,673)
Others: 6.43% (2,107)

Wilson worked tirelessly to campaign for lost time. He primarily focused on his win in New Hampshire, as well as his status as an outsider, a term Wilson and other candidates had labelled themselves quite a lot, recently, played well with voters. As a result, Wilson eked out a win, followed closely behind by Forbes and Alexander.

With another week since New Hampshire, February 27 brought the Arizona and Dakota primaries, and they were certainly a doozy.

Arizona Primary results
abgLvd6.png

Forbes
: 27.56% (95,766)
Wilson
: 24.91% (86,557)
Dole: 13.19% (45,832)
Buchanan: 10.03% (34,852)
Alexander: 8.45% (29,362)
Gramm: 5.73% (19,910)
Lugar: 5.13% (17,825)
Others: 5.0% (17,374)

North Dakota Primary results
40ke6Oe.png

Wilson: 24.82% (15,729)
Forbes
: 18.83% (11,933)
Dole: 18.72% (11,863)
Buchanan: 14.63% (9,271)
Alexander: 9.09% (5,760)
Lugar: 6.76% (4,284)
Specter: 5.91% (3,745)
Others: 4.25% (2,693)

South Dakota Primary results
NAqw4ZN.png

Dole: 36.34% (25,136)
Alexander
: 22.54% (15,591)
Buchanan: 19.96% (13,806)
Wilson: 12.03% (8,321)
Lugar: 6.45% (4,461)
Others: 5.1% (3,527)

The three primaries, if anything were meant to provide a way to shorten the group of candidates. And, to be fair, Keyes later dropped out after failing to impress from his unusually strong performance in the Alaska and Iowa contests, and endorsed Buchanan. However, the split wins: Wilson’s win in North Dakota, where Dole’s unusually weak performance (blamed on his excessive campaigning in South Dakota, where more useful, binding delegates would be ‘up for grabs,’ as opposed to North Dakota’s non-binding delegates), and Dole’s landslide win in the South (his campaign was looking more and more like his run in ‘88), whilst Forbes unexpectedly won the Grand Canyon State by carrying the populous Maricopa, Pinal and Yavapai Counties (along with decidedly less populous Gila County), whilst Wilson swept the state’s border counties with Mexico (Dole and Buchanan were relegated to the sparsely populated, rural desert counties).

Even with the primaries out of the way, and many of the candidates either dropping out or looking like they would in a matter of weeks, if not days, the Republican Party Primaries still looked to be a shitshow by the end of the month.

Final Results as of February 28, 1996:
America-GOP-1996-1.png

Wilson has carried 3 states, and narrowly trails Dole in the number of pledged delegates he has.

Dole has carried 2 states, both of whom he carried during his campaign in 1988, and maintains a slight delegate lead.

Forbes’ unexpected win in Arizona and good performance in Delaware has helped convince many of his supporters and possible donors that his campaign is successful, and has begun labelling himself “the comeback kid.”

Gramm has won the caucus in Louisiana, but has underperformed everywhere else. He is currently focusing on rallying support from the Deep South and his home state of Texas.

Buchanan is moderating his platform to one more accessible after his shock loss in New Hampshire, and, much like Gramm, is rallying support in the South.

Specter, Lugar and Alexander have not won a state yet, but still have had moderate successes in states, and, in the case of Alexander and Specter, gathered some delegates. The three are mainly focusing on campaigning in specific “springboard states,” with Specter in New England, Lugar in the Rust Belt and Alexander in the South.
 
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Chapter 1.4: The Fall of the House of Clinton, Part One
February 29, 1996 was a brisk and snowy day in the Potomac. The President had a special guest with him on the ride: Russian Premier Boris Yeltsin. Both men, leaders of post-Cold War superpowers, were facing election in their home countries, and it was decided beforehand that a state visit with each other in the United States would be a prime campaign opportunity for both campaigns. Yeltsin looked as if he might actually lose to the Communists as the “shock therapy” legislation he enacted had caused hyperinflation, and Yeltsin had gotten himself entangled in a highly unpopular war with the separatist region of Chechnya, and Clinton, although having stabilized the American economy and seemed to be bringing the nation into the 21st Century a prosperous and happy nation, was facing a primary challenge with self-proclaimed blue-collar populist Bob Casey.

The part-PR stunt, part-holiday began on the afternoon of the 27th, with Yeltsin, his wife Naina and trusted Presidential advisor Valentin Yumashev arriving at Andrews Air Force Base and greeted by President Clinton, the First Lady and Secretary of State Warren Christopher, as well as a flight line ceremony staffed by the Coast Guard Ceremonial Honor Guard. The visit began as normal, with a tour of Washington D.C. from the comfort of the President’s convoy, followed by the White House arrival and exchanging of gifts by both leaders. A walk along the Tidal Basin (closely guarded by Secret Service), followed by a state dinner and performance by country singers Andrew Gold and Linda Rondstadt. Yeltsin, his family and his staff present with him stayed overnight at Blair House.

The following morning, Yeltsin and his family were picked up by the President’s convoy. The visit continued as normal, with Yeltsin and Clinton visiting Mount Vernon and dedicating a plaque at the Russian Consulate in Washington. Interestingly, before the dinner, the President spent some time alone in the Oval Office for at least an hour and a half. Yeltsin was spotted during this time drinking at the Old Ebbitt Grill in Georgetown, with Secret Service protection.

The 29th of February began as any other day in the scheduled trip - ordinary. The men would visit a Russian language school in Falls River, Virginia, before heading north with their families to Camp David. All seemed fine arriving at the school, a large crowd of students, teachers and journalists greeting them at the front. The guided tour of the premises similarly began just as normal.

However, the events that followed were about as abnormal as one could possibly get.

Crucially, only a single bodyguard, Aldo E. Frascoia, had been sent to protect the two heads of state. At 11:24 a.m. Eastern Time, a figure emerged from the large crowd that had gathered in the corridors of the school, following the two leaders. Albert Digaev, a 19-year old who was from Orange County, California, walked up to the two men and pulled out a stolen Beretta 92FS pistol.

He fired three times.

Yeltsin slumped onto the floor, bleeding out from the three wounds sustained to his chest and abdomen. Clinton, standing just inches from the Russian President, was not injured, but covered in the Russian premier’s blood and stood almost entirely frozen in fear and shock. Digaev was tackled to the ground by Frascoia and the ordeal was caught on camera by WUSA-TV.

Boris Nikolayevich Yeltsin was pronounced dead at Fairfax Hospital in Falls Church, Virginia, at 11:28 a.m.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

At around 5:00 a.m. in Moscow, the new President of the Russian Federation Viktor Chernomyrdin, his wife Valentina, his children Andrey and Vitali were on the move. They, Minister Anatoly Kulikov and a handful of bodyguards were carried through an armoured convoy on the 4 minute drive from the White House Taganskaya metro station. The streets of Moscow in the early winter morning looked more like those out of Pripyat than the capital, Chernomyrdin thought to himself, glancing out of the bomb-proof windows that he and his family were carried in.

Nobody would notice.

The new President and his family were shepherded into a hidden entrance. The bitter cold of the early February morning lingered inside the dark stairwell that seemed to go down forever. By the time they entered the bunker, his ears felt like they were going to snap off his head.

It was primarily for safety reasons that the family had been brought into hiding. Even though most of the nation had yet to wake up, when they eventually did and turned on their televisions on, they would be in for a shock. “At best,” Defense Minister Grachev argued, “the Chechens and Ingush will party in the streets of Grozny. At worst, they will try to attempt a Tet Offensive.”

Then again, that miserable bastard was nowhere to be seen. He said he would stay above ground, to make sure the Duma, White House and the Kremlin were all operative.

Anatoly motioned for his bodyguard, Alexander Korzhakov.

“Alex, do you know why Grachev stayed? In the White House?”

The hulking figure with thinning hair and dressed in military fatigues turned to him.

“No, I do not.”

“Well, do you know where he is? Right now?”

“No.”

Viktor sat down on one of the benches that lined the bunker. The suit he had given his pre-taped address to the people in just a few minutes before leaving the White House offered him little warmth in the absolutely frigid bunker. That tape was now on its way to the headquarters of Russia-1, Channel One and NTV, where it would be broadcast exactly once at 7:00 a.m. before being destroyed. A boyish-looking member of the Presidential Guard, who had a babyface and only looked to be about 18 was desperately trying to get a faulty heater to turn on, but obviously without any luck. Viktor wished he had grabbed a book to read, the next few hours would be particularly painful: nothing to do but wait until the coast was clear again.

Viktor grabbed a transistor radio that was lying on the table next to him and turned it on. He flicked through the different channels, most of which were simply broadcasting dead air. Unsurprising, considering the time. He kept flicking until he came across a rock music station, or at least that was what it sounded like. Some old, probably Soviet-era song was being played.

Viktor laid down on the frozen wooden bench, setting the radio down beside him and listening to the music as he prepared to drift off to have a short rest and hoping his body heat would thaw the bench before his face would freeze to it.

/ Uvezu tebja ja v tundru, uvezu 'k sedym snegam /
/ Beloj shkuroju medvezh'ej, broshu ih ‘k tvoim nogam /
/ Po hrustjashhemu morozu, pospeshim na kraj zemli /
/ I sredi sugrobov dymnyh Zaterjaemsja vdali /​

Out of the corner of his tired eyes, Viktor noticed a military general, Rodionov, he thought his name was, answering the telephone in the other room, through the window. He seemed pissed off, but then again, the Afghanistan veteran always was. Viktor cursed his terrible lip reading skills as he tried to see what the conversation was about.

/ My poedem, my pomchimsja /
/ Na olenjah utrom rannim /
/ I otchajanno vorvemsja /
/ Prjamo 'v snezhnuju zarju! /​

Viktor watched as the general who was built like a tank and had the ferocity of one to boot suddenly perform a magic trick right in front of his eyes: his head changed colour, from a normal flesh tone to pale white to an angry red, and begin to smash the headset of the telephone in anger. He could hear the thumps the plastic piece of shit made as it hit something hard, probably a desk.

/ Ty uznaesh', chto naprasno /
/ Nazyvajut Cever Krajnim /
/ Ty uvidish' - on beskrajnij /
/ Ja tebe ego darju! /​


The exasperated and furious general stormed out of the communications room and into the common room. The vein protruding out of his forehead looked big enough to strangle him.

“Mister Chairman!”

Viktor did not address the General’s incorrect style of office; to be fair, he didn’t really care or notice that much. He was just as new to this Presidential title as everyone else was.

“What happened?”

The general, redder in the face than a lobster, caught his breath. He no longer looked angry or full of malice, but rather, his face wore an expression that Viktor could only read as an equal mixture of fear and shame.

“They-They… I don’t know how to tell you this, but they’ve… they’ve… they’ve taken the Kremlin!”

“Wait, what?! Who?!”

His question would go unanswered. The baby-faced guard standing beside the radiator raised his Stechkin up to President Viktor and fired a single shot into his head.

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“On the streets of Moscow, we see scenes reminiscent to those of the 1993 coup attempt or even an action movie, but no, this is happening right now. Military officers loyal to General Nikolai Kormiltsev entered the State Duma yesterday, declaring martial law in response to the sudden deaths of President Boris Yeltsin in Virginia yesterday and now, as we are lead to believe, former Prime Minister Nikolai Chernomyrdin.

In addition to the storming of the national parliament, military troops loyal to General Kormiltsev, who has declared a state of emergency, also have apparently taken control of the headquarters of national television and radio broadcasters.

General Kormiltsev has enforced military rule over the entire country in order to maintain security from terrorists, however this is not preventing attacks. Just a few hours ago, possibly as much as 100 people were killed when their Moscow apartment block was destroyed, possibly by Chechen terrorists. Riots currently run rampant throughout the nation but almost all of them have been put down early today, usually by violence or force. Military troops are now advising every person to ‘stay out of the streets,’ and have enforced a curfew.


The military coup, as it is being likened to, is a huge blow to President Clinton’s efforts to support and foster liberal democracy in the former Soviet Union. Presidential candidate Bob Casey has likened it to a ‘fiasco’ caused by ‘American negligence in our foreign policy, which is being run exclusively by corrupt swindlers who benefit from the Military-Industrial Complex at the expense of working Americans.’ Casey also said the assassination of Yeltsin: ‘although a tragedy, and I give my deepest condolences and prayers to [Yeltsin’s] family, proved President Clinton has severe error in his judgement as President.’ As the South Carolina primary comes up, cracks are beginning to show for President Clinton, who is by far seen as the favoured candidate, both against Casey and members of the Republican Party.

As seen in this shot, taken on a news helicopter, a plume of smoke rises from Red Square. We see the source, a massive hole fired in one of the world-famous domes of Saint Basil’s Cathedral, a UNESCO World Heritage site, after an artillery shell was fired at the building. It was believed rebel military units loyal to the former Yeltsin and Chernomyrdin governments were hiding in the cathedral. We could not go further, as the thousands of tanks and anti-aircraft guns stationed in the city threatened to shoot us down if our news crew approached further towards the Kremlin. However, even from here, the total devastation of the city is obvious.

Due to the assassination of Yeltsin and the ascension of General Kormiltsev to power, whether or not the upcoming elections that were meant to be held on the 16th of June will go ahead as planned is now uncertain.

However, it seems like the only option for the Russian people still left in Russia or with family and friends stuck in the unstable nation is to hope and pray. Garrick Utley, ABC News.”

-Excerpt from a news bulletin delivered on World News Tonight, broadcast 1 March, 1996
 
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