FDR doesn't get polio

Like it says on the tin, what if Franklin Roosevelt did not contract polio and lose all mobility in his legs during that fateful vacation to Campobello Island? It was said that this event greatly affected his own political outlook. Would he still become President? How would his policies be different from OTL?
 
It would've certainly affected his political outlook. The experience gave him a greater insight into the plight of the disadvantaged, made him a social liberal instead of the Wilsonian liberal he'd been previously. Being the political genius he was, FDR would've subtly changed with the times, I'm sure, but it wouldn't have been of the same magnitude. Policies and how his political career play out depend on events, and given butterflies it'll be a different world than OTL's.

Here's what TNF said a few years ago:

I don't think he does. Without being stricken with polio, Roosevelt probably doesn't take a break from politics, and thus, probably runs for the Senate or Governorship much earlier that OTL. If he goes for the Senate, that gives him a voting record to run against, and, that, combined with the fact that Senators very seldom get elected President, plays against him, in my mind.

If he does get elected Governor earlier, I think that makes him 'old news' politically a lot faster, and he probably gets the Democratic presidential nomination earlier than OTL as well. IIRC, his speech at the 1924 Democratic National Convention (in which he nominated Smith) was so good that the delegates, had he not been so afflicted with polio and still in the early stages of recovery, considered nominating Roosevelt right then and there instead.

If Roosevelt does manage to become President, he's not going to be the same Roosevelt that we know from OTL, either. Roosevelt's affliction with polio changed the way he viewed the world and took him from being a Wilsonian liberal to the social democrat that he governed as, galvanizing Roosevelt toward the concerns of the disadvantaged and the out of luck.
 
If FDR is nominated in '24 or '28, he has no chance of winning. The republicans and big business tycoons were perceived as a source of prosperity during the roaring '20s. He would then run a risk of becoming a perennial candidate, always running but never being nominated.
 
FDR without polio would probably affect America as a whole. Does this mean that either Huey Long, Henry Wallace or even Harry Truman may get elected as president in Roosevelt's place? Although this would probably butterfly the New Deal if the Great Depression still arrives on schedule.
 
FDR without polio would probably affect America as a whole. Does this mean that either Huey Long, Henry Wallace or even Harry Truman may get elected as president in Roosevelt's place? Although this would probably butterfly the New Deal if the Great Depression still arrives on schedule.

Given butterflies, quite possible that none of them rise to prominence. Heck if the warning signs are heeded and appropriate actions then OTL's Great Depression becomes a moderate-to-severe recession, or things go even worse and further economic collapse...
 
FDR without polio would probably affect America as a whole. Does this mean that either Huey Long, Henry Wallace or even Harry Truman may get elected as president in Roosevelt's place? Although this would probably butterfly the New Deal if the Great Depression still arrives on schedule.

Huey Long, for various reasons, was pretty much doomed outside of the state level of Louisianan politics from which he originated.

Roosevelt being out of the game probably does not change that overmuch.
 
FDR was involved in a minor scandal, about the time he got polio. His opponents assumed he was out of politics, and didnt kick him while he was down. If he doesnt get polio, theyll attack full force, and he mightbe forced out of politics, which would make it a lot harder to make a comeback.
 

Japhy

Banned
Like it says on the tin, what if Franklin Roosevelt did not contract polio and lose all mobility in his legs during that fateful vacation to Campobello Island? It was said that this event greatly affected his own political outlook. Would he still become President? How would his policies be different from OTL?

Frankly I'm not sure how important the Polio was to his political outlook, did it increase his Empathy to those suffering in the depression? Probably, did it turn him into some sort of pathfinder for Post-Progressive Liberalism? I don't think so.

The ideals that FDR operated on is really sort of a child between the New Nationalism and The New Freedom, that is, the ideals of FDR and TWW, other parentage coming from men like Al Smith and Britain's New Liberalism. That is to say, it wasn't all that radical a break with the past, I'd say that all other things the same except FDR's walking, you'd still see the New Deal. Of course his continuing health means that there's no way things are the same.

As a note, if it weren't for the Polio FDR would never have been the fellow to nominate Smith in the 1924 Convention, so his political rebound if it hasn't already started is definitely going to follow a different path.
 
FDR without polio would probably affect America as a whole. Does this mean that either Huey Long, Henry Wallace or even Harry Truman may get elected as president in Roosevelt's place? Although this would probably butterfly the New Deal if the Great Depression still arrives on schedule.
I'll disagree respectfully with HWG and say that I believe Long is the only one with a chance. Truman and Wallace could only run at the national level because of FDR's power. Wallace, booed at the convention in which his nomination was forced on the party, would certainly never be nominated as a Democrat. He wasn't a Democrat, really, until FDR grabbed him for Commerce. And if the GOP wants a businessman with no political experience, they can tap Willkie. Wallace was a nice guy and genius when it came to plants, but a shitty politician, a religious kook, and a soviet sympathizer. Truman, "The Senator from Pendergast", is probably doomed by allegations of political machine corruption. Plus I can't see him going for it outside some extraordinary circumstances.

Long, though. If FDR is removed by no polio, either losing in an earlier run or being weighed down by some scandal, it could be that there's no big government liberal running in 1932. Without the New Deal making progress, or at least appearing to (if you're a New Deal skeptic), there's going to be a lot of people looking for the kind of thing Long is offering.
 
I think the polio made him President. One for thing FDR having polio got Eleanor involved in politics.Plus it made him a lot tougher mentally. America with out FDR has President is so different I can't even imagine it.
 
What is Long offering anyways?
"Sharing Our Wealth"

No person would be allowed to accumulate a personal net worth of more than 300 times the average family fortune, which would limit personal assets to between $5 million and $8 million. A graduated capital levy tax would be assessed on all persons with a net worth exceeding $1 million.

Annual incomes would be limited to $1 million and inheritances would be capped at $5 million.

Every family was to be furnished with a homestead allowance of not less than one-third the average family wealth of the country. Every family was to be guaranteed an annual family income of at least $2,000 to $2,500, or not less than one-third of the average annual family income in the United States. Yearly income, however, cannot exceed more than 300 times the size of the average family income.

An old-age pension would be made available for all persons over 60.

To balance agricultural production, the government would preserve/store surplus goods, abolishing the practice of destroying surplus food and other necessities due to lack of purchasing power.

Veterans would be paid what they were owed (a pension and healthcare benefits).

Free education and training for all students to have equal opportunities in all schools, colleges, universities, and other institutions for training in the professions and vocations of life.

The raising of revenue and taxes for the support of this program was to come from the reduction of swollen fortunes from the top, as well as for the support of public works to give employment whenever there may be any slackening necessary in private enterprise.
 

Japhy

Banned
You'd be surprised what desperate people and flexible politicians can accomplish.

You redistribute everyone's money in the US at the time and no one's getting what Long is promising unless he goes the Wiemar route of Sound Money.
 
Math making sense isn't so much a barrier to election as to success after election. People will vote for politicians saying all kinds of crazy shit with no relation to reality. As to national popularity, a DNC poll for 1936 showed Long taking up to 11% as a third party candidate. In a no New Deal TL, his chances could look a lot better (FDR admittedly pushed certain programs just to steal Long's thunder). A third party run likely can't carry him to the White House, but if you believe some people his plan was to demonstrate the appeal of his ideology and then go after the democratic nomination the next time.
 
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