FDR doesn’t die and runs in 48

If the GOP still runs Dewey FDR could win depend on how good his health was

If this was the FDR of 1940, someone who could match a fraction of the energy of Truman's campaign while Dewey sit around convinced he was guranteed to win against incumbency fatigue then yeah he could definitely win

Dewey waged quite a vigorous, hard-hitting campaign in 1944. It wasn't enough, of course, in the middle of a war. In 1948, he underestimated Truman--a mistake I doubt he would make about FDR.
 
Again, the ONLY two figures that matter:

EC 432-99

States Won 36-12

The only states that would realistically be in play are MI and NJ. Also, as previously noted, FDR achieved that crushing victory in number of states and in the EC despite being virtually invisible during the run-up to the election and being more dead than alive thanks to, among other things, congestive heart failure.

There might be a more difficult candidate to run against than a healthy one who can, accurately, claim that he steered the ship of state victoriously through the Great Depression and a World War while being the only President many voters can ever recall being in office, but you'd need to travel a spell before you found one.
There was already polling done on this by Gallup, and the only reason why Roosevelt won the election was because many voters at the time did not want to a change of Administration in the midst of the War; when asked how they'd vote if the War were over, Roosevelt was losing by increasingly larger margins as the years passed whilst still remaining personally popular. If Franklin Roosevelt were able to maintain his faculties and be capable of and desired to contest the 1948 Presidential Election he would almost certainly have been Churchill'd.

@David T is on point on this.
 
FDR was quite explicit that he would not run for another term once peace was restored:

"I have already indicated to you why I accept the nomination that you have offered me — in spite of my desire to retire to the quiet of private life.

You in this Convention are aware of what I have sought to gain for the Nation, and you have asked me to continue.

It seems wholly likely that within the next four years our armed forces, and those of our allies, will have gained a complete victory over Germany and Japan, sooner or later, and that the world once more will be at peace — under a system, we hope that will prevent a new world war. In any event, whenever that time comes, new hands will then have full opportunity to realize the ideals which we seek." https://archive.org/stream/4926605.1944.001.umich.edu/4926605.1944.001.umich.edu_djvu.txt

Now, yes, of course sometimes politicians break promises not to run again. But to add a fifth term *in peacetime* after you promised not to do so is going to cost FDR some votes. How many I don't know, but it is going to have an effect. There are going to be *some* voters who gave FDR the benefit of the doubt in wartime but who will now say "Maybe the Republicans are right about his 'Caesarism.'"
 
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