Hello again, as the title says what would happen to Bulgaria, Germany, Austria-Hungary, and the Ottomans if the allies had won the Great War a year or two early?

For this TL I'm going to actually be using the one where Rossevelt wins the 1912 election and uses the Invasion of Belgium, Lusitania's sinking, and the desire to flex America's muscles to go to war. If this is a divergence point you can't agree with then I appologize, but just assume Britain and Co. claim victory for whatever realistic reason. Secondly, the complications of Rossevelt presidency and all of the internal and external affaris it will engage in will certainly be drasticly altered over the next two terms. Even more so once the man's out of office and the TL moves on into the coming decades.

Now for the fates of the actors, lets say the war ends around February or March 1917.
  1. Bulgaria, probably the same as IOTL.
  2. Russia, I assume has its first revolution but the requirments for the October revolution might not arise. Regardless, the Tsar is probbably still out of the picture. (I know Russia was an ally, but it is also drastically changed by this TL.)
  3. Austria-Hungary. Do they still collapse as dramatically as OTL? I imagine that the two main kingdoms will split, but I'm not sure if the smaller countries like Czechoslovokia?
  4. Germany, I'm sure they concede a lot of territory and colonies to the Entente, however the war guilt cause may not be placed, nor will the entire bill be dumped on them. Whether or not the Kaiser will be deposed is another question that I am not sure of. I do think that some sort of Polish buffer state could be created.
  5. The Ottoman Empire, this one's the trickiest IMO, I'm not sure whether Britain and France go ahead with carving them up, or if the Hejaz Arabs go on to conquer greater Arabia, or if they manage to hold on to most of their empire.
 
I actually think Germany fares better in an early entente victory, because a weak Germany was no match for Napoleon one hundred years prior, and it will further be in the interest of Russia to hold the Poles down, something which a Germany with Polish-populated lands helps to do.
 
Why would Bulgaria join the Central Powers? If there is greater initial Entente success in the War (and there would have to be for the War to end earlier), wouldn't they just decide to wait it out and see what territory they could get from the Ottomans and try to get the allies to force Serbia and Greece for concessions? Sure, they couldn't expect to get what the CP offered them in OTL, but in this timeline joining a doomed cause would be all the more obvious. From the perspective of an onlooker in TTL the CP are even more disadvantaged than in OTL. There isn't a point picking the losing side. Better to get something than nothing.
 
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Entente probably still carve Ottoman Empire. Not necessarility such way as in OTL and probably not plan trying divide Anatolia. Ottoman dynasty might survive but are reduced as sultans of Turkey which might be bit bigger than in OTL.
 
Russia, I assume has its first revolution but the requirments for the October revolution might not arise. Regardless, the Tsar is probbably still out of the picture. (I know Russia was an ally, but it is also drastically changed by this TL.)

Without a war, the October Revolution probably does not happen, but the Kerensky government is still politically unstable. It's literally a coin toss in regards to what happens in Russia. Anything could happen. The Kerensky government oculd stabilize itself, there oculd be a military coup, etc.

  • Austria-Hungary. Do they still collapse as dramatically as OTL? I imagine that the two main kingdoms will split, but I'm not sure if the smaller countries like Czechoslovokia?

This really depends on the state of the Empire at the time of the war's conclusion. In 1918, it effectively collapsed because it's soldiers had thrown up their hands and gone home and as a result, the Italians, French and the Americans pushed deeper into A-H territory. If the war ends with the Empire intact and with it's soldiers' morale in good enough shape, I think the Empire could hold on. But, it would lose territory to Italy, without a doubt. It also helps that in this timeline, Woodrow Wilson's Fourteen Points do not exist, so there is no one on the Allied side calling for a dismantlement of the Empire


  • Germany, I'm sure they concede a lot of territory and colonies to the Entente, however the war guilt cause may not be placed, nor will the entire bill be dumped on them. Whether or not the Kaiser will be deposed is another question that I am not sure of. I do think that some sort of Polish buffer state could be created.

Oh, dear, here we go. It would lose Alsace-Lorraine and it's colonial territories, without a doubt. I think we could see a version of the War Guilt Clause still slapped on Germany. But here's the biggest problem here. In our timeline, Article 227 of the Treaty of Versailles called for the Kaiser to be put on trial for... "a supreme offence against international morality and the sanctity of treaties". I wouldn't be surprised if something like this wasn't called for in this timeline. The Kaiser could always flee to the Netherlands like he did in our timeline, but in order to do that, he would have to abdicate and flee, which would be seen as a act of cowardice by the German people. If he was tried and executed, then there would be widespread national anger.

The situation of Poland is a tricky one. In our timeline, Russia was willing to create a 'Kingdom of Poland' consisting of the eastern area of Poznan region, southern Silesia and Western Galicia, but I am curious as to whether or not this will go ahead, since giving up Russian territory which Russian soldiers died to defend, would be seen as a act of treachery by the Russian people. Like I said, it's a coin toss as to whether this will happen.

I do see the Poles getting some kind of national home within the remains of Upper Silesia, Pomerania and Danzig, but this would be a tiny country, which would not be able to sustain a large Polish population.



  • The Ottoman Empire, this one's the trickiest IMO, I'm not sure whether Britain and France go ahead with carving them up, or if the Hejaz Arabs go on to conquer greater Arabia, or if they manage to hold on to most of their empire.

The Sykes Picot Agreeement in our timeline was signed in April 1916, so I'm sure it would be put into action in this timeline. So, Russia would recieve the Armenian regions of Anatolia and Constantinople. This could lead to a early Turkish War of independence, but it would be different since in thistimeline, Greece owuldn't get anything since in our timeline, it joined the Enente in June 1917, so this TWI is going to be a war between Turkey, France and Russia.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
The situation of Poland is a tricky one. In our timeline, Russia was willing to create a 'Kingdom of Poland' consisting of the eastern area of Poznan region, southern Silesia and Western Galicia, but I am curious as to whether or not this will go ahead, since giving up Russian territory which Russian soldiers died to defend, would be seen as a act of treachery by the Russian people. Like I said, it's a coin toss as to whether this will happen.

I do see the Poles getting some kind of national home within the remains of Upper Silesia, Pomerania and Danzig, but this would be a tiny country, which would not be able to sustain a large Polish population.
It was supposed to include Congress Poland, and would be no more independent than Finland was before the war.
The Sykes Picot Agreeement in our timeline was signed in April 1916, so I'm sure it would be put into action in this timeline. So, Russia would recieve the Armenian regions of Anatolia and Constantinople. This could lead to a early Turkish War of independence, but it would be different since in thistimeline, Greece owuldn't get anything since in our timeline, it joined the Enente in June 1917, so this TWI is going to be a war between Turkey, France and Russia.
Greece would join earlier if the Entente was doing better.
 
It was supposed to include Congress Poland, and would be no more independent than Finland was before the war.

So the Russian ruble would've been used alongside the zloty, Russian language would've been omnipresent in areas of administration and education and whatever legislative body Russia allows Poland to possess would've been a toothless advisory body?

I don't see this backfiring at all.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
So the Russian ruble would've been used alongside the zloty, Russian language would've been omnipresent in areas of administration and education and whatever legislative body Russia allows Poland to possess would've been a toothless advisory body?

I don't see this backfiring at all.
Finland's legislature had a lot more power in Finland than the Russian Duma did in Russia before it was disbanded. I correct my statement - both Finland and Poland would presumably be (re-)granted the same amount of autonomy Finland had before 1899 if Kerensky wanted internal peace and could push it through.
 
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Finland's legislature had a lot more power in Finland than the Russian Duma did in Russia. Nicholas II's attempts to strip away its power failed.

I watched The Great War channel's special on Finland and it said that Tsar Nicholas implemented a policy of Russification which effectively stripped away Finland's autonomy. Before the program, Finland had it's own army, postal service, currency and police. That's a lot of autonomy to give to what can only be called a client state, if not a autonomous province of Russia.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
I watched The Great War channel's special on Finland and it said that Tsar Nicholas implemented a policy of Russification which effectively stripped away Finland's autonomy. Before the program, Finland had it's own army, postal service, currency and police. That's a lot of autonomy to give to what can only be called a client state, if not a autonomous province of Russia.
Yeah, I had a research failure. I tried editing my post to suggest that Kerensky might restore the pre-Russification era policy (assuming February Revolution still occurs) but I guess I edited it too late.
 
Yeah, I had a research failure. I tried editing my post to suggest that Kerensky might restore the pre-Russification era policy (assuming February Revolution still occurs) but I guess I edited it too late.

That's fine. All good.

If Poland was given the same autonomy as Finland had before 1899, I think the Poles would've been more or less accepting of their situation (better than being strangers in their own ancestral lands), but there'd be people asking if Poland is a nation in union with Russia, a vassal state of Russia or a mere province of Russia, just like what was going on in Finland in our timeline, a interesting situation to say the least.
 
Germany loses Alsace-Lorraine, easily enough.

Depending on when the Entente wins, if it's after Italy joins them in 1915, I can see Austria-Hungary giving up Trentino but not South Tyrol; they're also far likelier to be intact, given that it took four years of war on two fronts among other factors for its collapse.

The Middle East gets divvied up among the victorious powers, with Russia getting Trebizond and possibly Wilsonian Armenia, and the Fertile Crescent divided into British and French zones. A rump Turkey with or without the Ottoman Sultan remains.

A shorter WWI might save the Central Powers' monarchies as well.
 
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