Fates of Louis II of Hungary and Ferdinand of Austria swapped

krieger

Banned
Let's say Ferdinand of Austria is born prematurely and ends up as a mentally unstable retard, who isn't actually capable of doing anything meaningful. Meanwhile, Louis II of Hungary is born at the right time and ends up as a ruthless and skilled politician, caring about a power of his family (some people would say ITTL that alt-Louis II resembles in personality his uncle @Jan Olbracht) and his marriage to Mary of Austria is very happy and productive and results in birth of following children:
Elizabeth (1525-1545)
Vladislaus (1527-1576)
Anna (1528-1590)
Louis (1529-1595)
Maria (1531-1581)
Magdalena (1532-1590)
Catherine (1533-1572)
Sophia (1534-1594)
Hedwig (1536-1567)
John (1538-1539)
Barbara (1539-1572)
Casimir (1540-1590)
Ursula (1541-1543)
Helena (1543-1573)
Joanna (1547-1578)
How will the situation develop? If Ferdinand is a complete retard, and Louis survives Mohacs and even manages to succesfully push back the Turks (if he is ruthless politician, Hungary will look better than IOTL, alt-Louis won't neglect state affairs and could even betroth Elizabeth to John Zapolya) and is regarded as a defender of Christendom, than he stands a very good chance of being elected Emperor after Charles's V death (in addition I intended alt-Louis to be not caring about religion of his subjects as long as they are obeying him and only HIM) against foreign Spanish king. And Sigismund II Augustus ITTL certainly doesn't suffer from lack of heirs, if he isn't going to produce heir on his own, than he has ITTL 3 possible heirs growing up south of Carpathians.
 
If Ferdinand is retard, Charles V would certainly not make him his hand in Germany, he could still be married to Anna in hope, that he'd at least have healthly kids, who could later claim Hungarian and Bohemian thrones. Otherwise he's useless. Habsburgs could lost Imperial Throne after Charles V, if he still has just one son and Ferdinand had nonr, but in such case some German Dynasty (most likely Wittelsbachs) is going to replace them as HREmperors.
 
If Ferdinand is retard, Charles V would certainly not make him his hand in Germany, he could still be married to Anna in hope, that he'd at least have healthly kids, who could later claim Hungarian and Bohemian thrones. Otherwise he's useless. Habsburgs could lost Imperial Throne after Charles V, if he still has just one son and Ferdinand had nonr, but in such case some German Dynasty (most likely Wittelsbachs) is going to replace them as HREmperors.

Odds are Charles V may get more sons if he understands the situation of his brother.
 
Let's say Ferdinand of Austria is born prematurely and ends up as a mentally unstable retard, who isn't actually capable of doing anything meaningful. Meanwhile, Louis II of Hungary is born at the right time and ends up as a ruthless and skilled politician, caring about a power of his family (some people would say ITTL that alt-Louis II resembles in personality his uncle @Jan Olbracht) and his marriage to Mary of Austria is very happy and productive and results in birth of following children:
Elizabeth (1525-1545)
Vladislaus (1527-1576)
Anna (1528-1590)
Louis (1529-1595)
Maria (1531-1581)
Magdalena (1532-1590)
Catherine (1533-1572)
Sophia (1534-1594)
Hedwig (1536-1567)
John (1538-1539)
Barbara (1539-1572)
Casimir (1540-1590)
Ursula (1541-1543)
Helena (1543-1573)
Joanna (1547-1578)
How will the situation develop? If Ferdinand is a complete retard, and Louis survives Mohacs and even manages to succesfully push back the Turks (if he is ruthless politician, Hungary will look better than IOTL, alt-Louis won't neglect state affairs and could even betroth Elizabeth to John Zapolya) and is regarded as a defender of Christendom, than he stands a very good chance of being elected Emperor after Charles's V death (in addition I intended alt-Louis to be not caring about religion of his subjects as long as they are obeying him and only HIM) against foreign Spanish king. And Sigismund II Augustus ITTL certainly doesn't suffer from lack of heirs, if he isn't going to produce heir on his own, than he has ITTL 3 possible heirs growing up south of Carpathians.

A smart move would be never to fight the Ottomans. That alone is enough for Hungary to survive as long as the Dynasty continues.
 
I was told the problem of Mary is that she is sterile, perhaps you can swap Mary and make Catherine as the bride of Louis of Hungary, while Eleanor of Austria marries in Portugal.
 

krieger

Banned
If Ferdinand is retard, Charles V would certainly not make him his hand in Germany, he could still be married to Anna in hope, that he'd at least have healthly kids, who could later claim Hungarian and Bohemian thrones. Otherwise he's useless. Habsburgs could lost Imperial Throne after Charles V, if he still has just one son and Ferdinand had nonr, but in such case some German Dynasty (most likely Wittelsbachs) is going to replace them as HREmperors.

In my scenario Ferdinand is also infertile (as Louis II supposedly was IOTL), so he isn't going to have a chance to have a kid. Of course, this is impossible to be known in the times of Congress of Vienna, so his marriage to Anna still happens. I can't see what would lead to Charles having more than one son. Philip is still alive (and has heirs on his own, to counterbalance Ferdinand's bad luck Maria Manuela of Portugal ITTL survives the birth of Don Carlos and gives birth to healthy sons called Philip and Maximilian), so no need for Charles to remarry in order to save a dynasty. I'd say that election would be a contest between Jagiellons and Wittelsbachs.
 
Can Louis afford to be "ruthless"? Hungary has seen a large increase in nobiliar power since the death of Matthias (which Louis' father greatly exacerbated) and many of Louis' problems in OTL came from there, not even touching Bohemia where royal authority wasn't a thing until late into Ferdinand's reign (and wasn't really enforced until the Bohemian Revolt), this TTL Louis/Lájos needs to be cautious and compromising, going full Matthias will only result in him being deposed. And there is the Ottoman threat sucking Hungarian resources, Hungary by 1500 is in no good shape to fend off Suleiman, the 20 years of divergences can make the conflict less damaging, but the prospects aren't really good.
 
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