Fate of the Netherlands if it joins the Central Powers and loses

BigBlueBox

Banned
For whatever reason, the Dutch choose to join the Central Powers in World War I. The Entente still wins, with the help of a more anti-German and jingoistic United States that joined the war earlier than OTL. What sort of reparations and territorial cessions would the Entente seek? Woodrow Wilson is NOT the President in this timeline, so the concern for national self-determination is significantly lessened, and America is interested in territorial gains.

Would the United States want the Dutch Caribbean? If so, would any other Entente members object? Would Brazil want Suriname, and would the other Entente members accept that? Belgium had some territorial desires on the Netherlands. The Entente would probably be fine with Belgium annexing Baarle-Nassau, which would make the border between the two countries much neater. But would it also accept Belgian claims on southern Limburg? Also, what would become of the Dutch East Indies in this scenario? I assume that the British would integrate Borneo into British Malaya, and the island of New Guinea would be unified under British/Australian rule. But what about the rest? Would Portugal want the western half of Timor, bringing the whole island under Portuguese control? Would a more expansionist America want any of it, either as a new territory of an expansion of the Phillipines? Would Japan be granted a piece of the Indonesian pie? Would any parts of the Dutch East Indies be granted independence, or remain with the Netherlands?

Finally, would the Netherlands get off much more easily if it made a separate peace after it was already clear that the Entente would win, or would they be treated the same as if they had fought to the end along with Germany?

Bonus question: What would happen to Luxembourg if the Netherlands still had a personal union with it?
 

BlondieBC

Banned
I tend to think without Wilson IOTL, the USA gets additional territories. ITTL, we have both this factor (expansionist president) and USA probably has to enter war at least year earlier to offset big advantage of Dutch joining. Adding Dutch forces plus more logistical routes to OTL opening act in Belgium helps Germans a lot.

Dutch will lose all colonies. IMO, USA will object strongly to anyone but USA getting colonies in Western Hemisphere and Dutch Colonies are not really that great, so all these colonies go to USA. Probably still a part of USA. Belgians will probably get what they want. I would tend to think the UK gets almost all of Dutch East Indies, and France will be compensated by additional African lands. Cameroon fits real nice in French Empire. German East Africa is not bad fit. Also, don't rule out some swaps like British get German East Africa but French get say Northern Nigeria.

Also, one big caveat. If Japanese get there first, Japanese keep it. Real lack of UK forces in Pacific at start of war, and Japan has a lack of forces.
 
Hard to imagine the Dutch wanting any part in this war because it seems no matter which side they choose, they'll end up losing. Side with the Germans, and the British simply extend their blockade to the Netherlands, denying them access to both the English Channel and the North Sea, and resulting in food shortages and destabilizing her colonial possessions, if not outright losing them to British colonial forces from India, Burma, and Australia. And of course, side with the allies, and Germany promptly invades, commandeers the Dutch fleet if they can, and the Dutch still loses her colonial possessions after the war for being on the losing side. I
know there was still a level of Dutch enmity towards the British going into the war, but they ultimately made a prudent decision to remain neutral.

However, the Dutch had maintained a policy of neutrality from 1830 on, shortly after the Belgian Revolution. Let's say the Netherlands still maintains claims on Belgium, which remains under the protection of France, and as a result, finds itself falling under the sway of Prussia and allies itself with the North German Confederation, kind of like an observer as opposed to join it outright. Their ultimate goals are to regain Belgium and finds an opportunity to do so during the Franco-Prussian War. With Napoleon III having alienated so many in Europe, and with Prussia having more and more support, and with the British being busy with other affairs (though realistically, any thing going on in the Low Countries is always going to be of critical importance to British interests), the Netherlands uses the war as to invade Belgium and regain her lost territory. With the formation of the new German Empire, the new Kingdom of the Netherlands ties itself firmly to Germany by way of a new Dutch-German alliance of mutual friendship and assistance, perhaps even partitioning the Belgian Congo with Germany. Then again, the Great War could start even sooner.

Barring this unlikely rash of Dutch aggression, the next likely POD that could induce them into joining the Central Powers could be the Boers somehow finding a way to win the 2nd Boer War, as the Boers were tacitly supported by Germany. If this can happen, and the Boers successfully maintain their independence in South Africa, this could indicate to the Dutch that Germany is able to successfully project it's influence abroad and be able to defeat the British in the colonies, even if it was more or less a proxy victory. Something like this could cause Italy to remain a part of the Central Powers and the Dutch to really believe that Germany could defeat the Allies, possibly with German promises to recover at least the Dutch-speaking parts of Belgium. They could allow the Germans to open and build U-Boat docks throughout her territory and also use her own fleet to hamstring the Royal Navy wherever they can.

But ultimately, I think at the very least the Dutch have to not decide on a policy of neutrality from 1830 on.
 
If you have an expansionist America at the table, then the Entente is in for a mess at the table. In OTL, with the Americans opting out, there were plenty of territories to go around But if America wants a piece of the pie, she's likely to want a very big piece of the pie

ITTL the Americans are going to want the Western Hemisphere but they'll also want the Dutch East Indies. This is an America that just conquered the Phillipines so interest in the Far East would be great. There are also the German colonies and the Ottoman terrirtories

At the table, there are five naval powers- the US, Japan, France, Italy and Britain. I wouldn't be surprised if this leads to another round as the victors amuse themselves fighting over the spoils. Maybe a US/France/Italy vs Britain/Japan
 
I could see Republican restoration in Netherlands, along with losing the suriname and indonesia. Perhaps independent or japanese mandate.
 
Not sure how plausible CP Netherlands is altough there was much of pro-German politicians so it is possible with good POD.

If CPs still lost the war, definitely NL lost all of its colonies. Americans would take American colonies and UK would take Dutch East Indies. Portugal might get Western Timor.

In metropolitan Netherlands would be stronger republican movement. We might see end of the monarchy. Netherlands probably would lost some land areas to Belgium and has pay some reparations.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
I could see Republican restoration in Netherlands, along with losing the suriname and indonesia. Perhaps independent or japanese mandate.
I don’t think anyone in the Entente would be okay with Japan taking all of Indonesia, but America and France wouldn’t want Britain to have all of it either. A three-way partition between Britain, USA, and Japan is likely. Portugal might get the rest of Timor too.
 
ITTL the Americans are going to want the Western Hemisphere but they'll also want the Dutch East Indies. This is an America that just conquered the Phillipines so interest in the Far East would be great. There are also the German colonies and the Ottoman terrirtories

It's also a US that immediately regretted doing so - the US actively looking to integrate more territories overseas seems rather implausible, generally. So you're not going to see big victors gaining the whole East Indies.

Probably have a rump Dutch territory centered on Java that would be left so no one else could claim it. UK or France would get Sumatra - that would be a big contention, as with Sumatra the UK gains control of the Straits of Malacca, which might be unwanted... France receiving some of the neighboring islands to the east of Java. Perhaps Sulawesi as well? Hard to say.

Probably a division of the territories would be seen. Sarawak might be expanded into Borneo. All of Papua likely to go to Britain, or rather, to Australia - the Australian forces involved there would likely continue onward to the West. The islands would be easily isolated and probably conquered earlier.

If anything, the US might try to get North Borneo to fold into the Philippines, but I don't see a trade happening easily. Only thing I could see, potentially, is the Moluccas in general - low population, decent economy, and potential bases. I'd far more see the US trading for Western Samoa or, even, for British/French New World territories. So long as its chain of bases are secured, the Philippines are secured, access to China is available, I really don't see a US need to invest themselves in further overseas colonial ventures.

As mentioned before, the Philippines was already a headache for the US government, and they really wouldn't want another one. So factor that into any consideration for the US.
 
Honestly, I think the OP has way too many assumptions and points of divergence.

OTL, the Netherlands was a Central Powers leaning neutral and the German leadership (political and military) wanted to keep it that way because they thought they could still import-export via the friendly neutral Netherlands under the pre-1914 international blockade rules. Some versions of the German early war plans had German forces traversing parts of Dutch territory to get around the Liege fortress complex, they may have expected the Dutch would let them do this, but what they wound up doing was bring up Skoda works manufactured siege artillery to reduce the Liege forts. The British just blockaded the Netherlands along with Germany so no "windpipe."

The two simplest options to get the Netherlands into the Central Powers are to have them either make an alliance with Germany pre-war, or for the British to declare war on the Netherlands. Why would the British declare war on the Netherlands when they were at war with lots of other countries? Well, they actually did declare war on the Netherlands in a somewhat similar situation in 1780 (active wars going on at the same time with the United States, France, Spain, and Mysore), and pretty much did everything possible to get a war started with Turkey in 1914. They could become very legalistic and decide they need to be actually at war with the country to blockade it (OTL they had no problem blockading neutral countries), maybe the Dutch allow German cruiser raids to base in the Dutch East Indies, maybe they give transit rights to the German 1st Army after all, maybe its just a colony grab or some combination of these things.

I think the biggest change is that when Wilhelm II decides to get out of Dodge in November 1918, he doesn't have an obvious place to go and has to try to make it to Switzerland. He probably does wind up in Switzerland. The blockade goes per OTL. The Dutch Army is needed to guard against possible amphibious landings and is not deployed on the Western Front. There is no British amphibious invasion of the Netherlands because Gallipoli demonstrates that amphibious doctrine needs a lot of working out before its tried again. There will be some diversion of British, Australian, and Indian forces to take over Dutch colonies. These have to come elsewhere, so there is a either a major impact on a minor campaign or a minor impact on a major campaign. Most likely the Mesopotamian campaign doesn't happen.

In terms of postwar butterflies, Turkey could wind up with more Kurdish territory if my suspicion is correct and the forces required to reduce the Dutch colonies are taken from the Mesopotamian campaign. I don't think there is an effect on domestic Dutch politics. Maybe they are more nationalistic and hate the British. League of Nations mandates for the Dutch colonies, but obviously Indonesia goes to Britain and the Caribbean colonies go to France. Australia probably gets all of New Guinea as a mandate and Portugal, which was an Allied power will get the rest of Timor and maybe some other islands. None of this affects the 1942 campaigns at all. There would be some effects on post-World War 2 Indonesian history, mainly in the direction of making it a more peaceful country.
 
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