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Assuming Barbarossa is a success, and the UK grudgingly acknowledges German hegemony over the continent, what happens to the Jewish populations of Hitler's allies? The Jews in the Reich and in territory occupied by the Reich would certainly be annihilated, but what about the Jews of Italy, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Vichy France?

Italy

OTL, Italian Jews were assimilated, and antisemitism played no role in the Fascist movement. Early on there were even Jews involved in the Fascist movement. Under German pressure, Mussolini placed restrictions on the Jews after 1938, but until Italy switched sides in 1943, Mussolini resisted handed Jews over to the Nazis. The Italians even protected Greek and Yugoslav Jews under their occupation. This is not to say Mussolini was not brutal. Hundreds of thousands were massacred by the Italians in Libya, Ethiopia and in the Balkans, but Jews were left alone. Would Mussolini be able to maintain this policy indefinitely? If possible, I could see the Italians support emigration - that would eliminate the Jewish population, and the Italians would not need to slaughter fellow citizens.

Hungary

Unlike in Italy, antisemitism was widespread in Hungary. Tens of thousands of Polish Jews were handed over to the Nazis, to be massacred by the SS at Kamenets-Podoski, and hundreds or thousands of Yugoslav Jews were massacred by Hungarian forces during the Hungarian occupation of part of that country. After 1938, Hungarian Jews were stripped of their citizenship, and many Jewish men were forced into Labor Battalions, in which the perished in the thousands. Despite this, Horthy was reluctant to hand over Hungarian to be gassed. In a Nazi victory scenario, Horthy might not have much choice, and might give in if the alternative is a German invasion of the country. In this timeline, there will be no secret negotiations with the Allies, and there would be no chance of any help from Allied quarters, so the Hungarians might just give in. Jewish groups might try to negotiate with the Germans and Hungarians like was done in OTL, but they don't really have anything to offer, and the UK (and US) government would hardly care. So the Hungarian Jews probably perish.

Romania

Like in Hungary, antisemitism was widespread in Romania. Hundreds of thousands of Jews were massacred in Bessarabia and in the parts of the Ukraine occupied by Romania. These Jews perished of disease or malnutrition in ghettos, they died on death marches, and they were killed in mass executions, several ordered personally by Romanian military dictator Ion Antonescu. Despite this, Jews living in the parts of Romania that were not occupied by the USSR in 1940 were not killed, and Antonescu refused to hand these Jews over. Romania would have the same issue Hungary would have in a Nazi victory scenario, namely it would not be strong enough to resist German demands. Like with Hungary, there won't be any help from the Allies, and Jewish groups would be ineffective. Romania's Jews also will perish.

Bulgaria

Like Hungary and Romania, Bulgaria handed over foreign Jews to be killed. The Bulgarians allowed the Nazis to destroy the ancient Jewish community in Salonika, in occupied Greece. Despite this, the Bulgarian government resisted handing over Bulgarian Jews. Would Bulgaria be able to continue this policy after a Nazi victory? Bulgaria's Jewish community was much smaller than the Romanian and Hungarian ones. Depending on the attitude of Turkey, could some Jewish refugees cross into Turkish Thrace? But Bulgaria was a small, militarily weak country. If Germany pressed, Sofia would have no real choice but to hand over the Jews.

Finland

OTL Finland's small Jewish community was left alone during the war. Could Finland quietly encourage Sweden to accept Finland's Jews (like how most Danish Jews fled to Sweden)? Finland is a small country, and certainly could not resist German demands, but would the Germans go to the trouble of occupying Finland to destroy the country's small Jewish population.

France

France, like Hungary and Romania, tried to resist handing French Jews over the Nazis, and instead tried to send foreign Jews. Since France is a defeated power, all they could really do is delay the inevitable, so France's Jews will probably perish. OTL Switzerland closed its doors to refugees, and accepted very few Jews. I don't think Spain would accept any, but Italy might accept a few. Antisemitism existed in the French far right (though Petain himself was not far right, nor do I think was he an antisemite) so there might not be much resistance from the Vichy authorities anyway.

So I would guess that other than in Italy (and maybe Finland) the Jews of Axis Europe would be killed.
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