Fate of the Bahamas and Bermuda if the US Takes Them in the ARW

I can't speak for Bermuda, but no way, absolutely not, do the Bahamas want to go to the US. They might get signed away in a treaty, but the population is going to want to stay British. I know. I am Bahamian.
Where you a Bahamian in the mid to late 18th century perhaps? The attitudes of modern Bahamians, separated by 250 years or so and the influx of loyalists and later those freed from slavers by the Royal Navy, aren't really reflective of the political situation then.

I think this whole discussion hinges on whether they become a state. If they are territories they are simply given away at the end of the War o '12, but if they are a state, they are integral US territory, and even in the Nappoleanic era the world is not a game of risk. The US isn't going to sign a treaty giving away part of it's core metropolitan area, occupied or not.

To put it in modern terms this wouldn't be like signing over Guam, it would be like giving up Arizona. Any treaty that does it unacceptable to Congress, which in turn probably leads to longer War of 1812 if the British give enough of a damn to keep fighting over them with a much harsher peace imposed.
 
I'm not sure how the Bahammas or Bermuda are more "core metropolitan area" than areas given up by treaty in this period in Europe by European powers.
 
Bahamians at that time had no desire to go from being British subjects to being part ot the US. Now, if it had happened by treaty, and the locals had no say in the matter, I don't know if they would have eventually morphed into proud Americans or not. But I know enough of the history of my country to be quite certain of their sentiments in the late 18th century.
Where you a Bahamian in the mid to late 18th century perhaps? The attitudes of modern Bahamians, separated by 250 years or so and the influx of loyalists and later those freed from slavers by the Royal Navy, aren't really reflective of the political situation then.

I think this whole discussion hinges on whether they become a state. If they are territories they are simply given away at the end of the War o '12, but if they are a state, they are integral US territory, and even in the Nappoleanic era the world is not a game of risk. The US isn't going to sign a treaty giving away part of it's core metropolitan area, occupied or not.

To put it in modern terms this wouldn't be like signing over Guam, it would be like giving up Arizona. Any treaty that does it unacceptable to Congress, which in turn probably leads to longer War of 1812 if the British give enough of a damn to keep fighting over them with a much harsher peace imposed.
 
If the Americans are able to capture and secure both the islands in Spring of 1776 and the islands throw in with the Second Continental Congress and declare independence.

No doubt, the British take the islands back in 1776, but does this curtail any other British movements? That is, if the British are determined to retake the islands can they also perform operations against the Patriots in Canada and plan for the invasion of New York.

The British were dead set on New York. I would also say that the British would put ships to retake Bermuda and the Bahamas. The reinforcements to Quebec might not be as much.

In the Spring of 1776, the Patriots had already planned to retreat from Quebec City. The arrival of the Royal Navy with reinforcements hastened their retreat. This prompted a defeat at Trois Riviers in June 1776.

Now if the islands are taken and the British siphen off some naval and troops to retake, perhaps they are not victorious at Trois Rivers. That is, the Americans are able to retreat and make defensive positions such that they are able to defend Trois Rivers and the Richiliu River to Champlain. Carleton and Burgoyne are not stopped at Valcour Island but are stopped at Trois Rivers in the summer of 1776.

In 1777, Burgoyne defeats the rebels as Schuyler and Arnold retreat down the Richiliu River to Champlain. where they are able to siphon off and weaken Burgoyn's army eventually encircling and forcing its retreat.

The British retake Montreal and secure Quebec for a time. With Arnold not disgraced by Gates and upheld by Schuyler, perhaps the Patriots are able to retake ground given up in 1778 and 1779.

At the peace table the British have to decide to give up either the islands or more territory in Canada. They give up more land in Canada as they see it harder to defend in the future against the Americans.
 
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