Fate of the Azeris

So, in a TL I'm planning, two of the biggest changes in western Persia is that
1. The Soviet Union survives the 90's, but in a much smaller and greatly reformed way, and 2. The Azeris living in Iran IOTL are under an independent government which different from the Azerbaijan SSR.
For the purposes of this post, the Azeris living under the Soviet Union will be called A1, while those living currently in Iran will be called A2.

So, several things could happen by the 90's:
1. A1 and A2 both become independent and unite to become a greater Azerbaijan
1a. Both are independent, but remain divided.
2. A1 remains part of the USSR, A2 remains independent
2a. Both join the USSR

Or the most unlikely, imo, scenarios

3. A2 rejoins Iran, A1 remains in USSR
3a. Both join Iran
3b. A2 joins Iran, A1 is independent (essentially OTL)

To add some context, for most of the Cold War ITTL A2 have existed under a puppet government, loyal to the Soviets.

Which one of the abovementioned scenarios is most realistic?
 
Maybe 1 could happen as a result of Soviet reforms. Granting them greater independence from Moscow, but working to keep the unified government friendly and in their sphere.
 
How and why is A2 independent from Iran? The Azeris have been dominated by the Persians more often than not historically, and basically continuously for the past 500 years or so. For their part, Persian-oriented states have usually been pretty okay to the Azeri, who are very much considered a "brother nation" of sorts.

If anything, it's much more likely that Russian Azerbaijan, peeled away from Persia by force in the 19th century, would want to rejoin Persia (though as in OTL, bureaucratic inertia will likely see it remain independent, though possibly with some sort of customs union and close ties). In fact, I'd argue that the main reason the Azerbaijan didn't do something is because of the Islamic Republic. If Iran had had a reasonable government in 1992, I can see formerly Soviet Azerbaijan becoming very close to Tehran.
 
So, in a TL I'm planning, two of the biggest changes in western Persia is that
1. The Soviet Union survives the 90's, but in a much smaller and greatly reformed way, and 2. The Azeris living in Iran IOTL are under an independent government which different from the Azerbaijan SSR.
For the purposes of this post, the Azeris living under the Soviet Union will be called A1, while those living currently in Iran will be called A2.

So, several things could happen by the 90's:
1. A1 and A2 both become independent and unite to become a greater Azerbaijan
1a. Both are independent, but remain divided.
2. A1 remains part of the USSR, A2 remains independent
2a. Both join the USSR

Or the most unlikely, imo, scenarios

3. A2 rejoins Iran, A1 remains in USSR
3a. Both join Iran
3b. A2 joins Iran, A1 is independent (essentially OTL)

To add some context, for most of the Cold War ITTL A2 have existed under a puppet government, loyal to the Soviets.

Which one of the abovementioned scenarios is most realistic?

This basically happened in my TL Stars & Sickles. At this point (it's nowhere near finished), Azerbaijan proper is part of the USSR whilst Iranian Azerbaijan is an independent Soviet satellite called the Azerbaijani People's Republic. Whether it will be absorbed into the USSR remains to be seen, but one drag on it would be how it would be perceived as a precedent by the international community: if Azerbaijan can be annexed, what about Mongolia? Or Poland? Or Romania? So it probably harms the USSR more than necessary to absorb it. Better from their perspective for it to remain in limbo.
 
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