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Let's say that the Kuomitang somehow gets completely obliterated during WWII. I don't know how this could happen since my knownledge of the war in Chine pretty limited, but let's just say it happens.

What's the fate of Taiwan in this scenario. It's obvious that this is mostly up to the United States to decide, so what choice would they make? I can think of several possible scenarios:

  1. The Americans immediately hand over the island to the PRC. Even though the PRC would certainly gain international recognition way sooner ITTL, since there would be no competing government to claim the name of China, I still find it doubtful that the Americans would willingly give territory to the communists at this point in history.
  2. They build up a new "republican chinese" regime in the island from scratch. Perhaps the most hubristic of all options. I'm not sure how the Taiwanese would react to such a regime. There would probably be pushes towars "taiwanization" but, unless they succeed very soon, before the PRC becomes powerful, I think this would mostly end like OTL modern Taiwan several decades anticipated.
  3. They give it back to Japan. I think the Taiwanese would probably be OK with this for the most part, and no one would really offer much of a complaint appart from the PRC and perhaps the Soviet Union. I guess the US wouldn't mind pissing off the commies just a little bit ;).
  4. They keep a prolonged American ocupation of the island, much like they did with Okinawa. Of course that Taiwan in much larger than Okinawa, so the Americans would have to give them a civilian government pretty soon. I think most Taiwanese would eventually want an independent Republic of Taiwan in this scenario, but I'm unsure of how feasable this would be. Again, unless it's done pretty soon, the PRC would be a big problem. For most of the world, Taiwan in this scenario would be seen like an American verion of Hong Kong and Macau, and the PRC would probably push towards unification under one-country-two-systems. However, I don't see the Taiwanese going so easily as Macanese or the Hong Kongers, nor do I see the Americans not putting up more of a fight than British or the Portuguese. I think Taiwan ITTL would most probably end as an asian Puerto Rico analog.
Well, these are my thought on this. What do you guys think?

Edit: Added a poll.
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