Fate of Siberia with balkanized Russia?

In the early 17th century, Russia suffered a great degree of political instability which IOTL saw the Romanovs seize power. However, what if this delicate time resulted in a stalemate between political powers with no-one able to reclaim the power once held by Ivan the Terrible? A seceded Novgorod Republic, Godonuv Moscow, Romanov Tver, and other city-states vie with each other but are unable to re-unite Russia.

What happens to Siberia? At this point the Khanate of Sibir had already been conquered, and Russians were brutally exploiting the Siberians through the practice of extracting tributes for the lucrative fur trade. Would Siberian natives be able to push away the invaders without a Russian state to back them? Would the colonists establish a European-style feudal state east of the Urals? Or would the desire to trade furs for European goods drive them to submit to one of the Russian statelets west of the Urals, or even a non-Russian power such as Sweden, which could conceivably enter Siberia from the north?
 
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Well, with the breakdown of Russia you probably see the pressure being put on the locals by the state-backed Cossack migrations lessened. Do the Cossack hosts continue to push even without the motivations of Moscow, or would they stay in their regions of origin and return to pillaging the now-weaker Russian states? My money is on the later (The Tartars are also going to have a field day... as is P-L), in which case I'd say the central Asian Khanates would fill the power vacuum, interspersed with a smattering of transplanted Cossack hosts carving out their own cowboy-esque warlord states.
 
Sibir Khanate will have chances to develop or at least leave a more lasting cultural legacy beyond their name. Like some sense of shared siberian indentity among siberian tribe or something like Tatar-Siberian identity.
 
China probably doesn't move in - there isn't much up there worth conquering - but if Russia doesn't reassemble, you probably end up with most of those steppe/Siberian cultures now knowing what a Cossack is and probably even what a gun is. By the time the Bear returns, you have nomads with muskets. They become much harder to conquer.

You probably end up at first with a series of small and loosely-governed khanates strung out across the north - Sibir of course, but also groups like the Buryats and Yakuts. The eastern ones probably end up heavily influenced by China, or potentially by a strong enough Manchu group. After that, butterfies will take their course.
 
he eastern ones probably end up heavily influenced by China, or potentially by a strong enough Manchu group
Wouldn't they be one and the same (assuming the Manchu conquest of China goes as per OTL instead of the Shun Dynasty (or an ATL equivalent) lasting longer or the Ming pulling things together)/
 
Would reunite sooner or later

... assuming they aren't subdued/beaten to a gooey pulp by the Swedes, Poles, Ottomans-Tartars...

Could later Japan colonize parts of it?

Doubtful, considering the only really profitable/settleable to any real extent areas are under the control of the Chinese. Japan would have to be colonizing from a coastal base carved out of the icey northern shore for the sake of... what exactly?
 
Wouldn't they be one and the same (assuming the Manchu conquest of China goes as per OTL instead of the Shun Dynasty (or an ATL equivalent) lasting longer or the Ming pulling things together)/
Probably, but I hedged to account for the unlikely event of the Manchus doing something else. Which... I'm not sure what it would be. But.
 
Japan might colonize Kamchatka but there still isn't much up there to justify any substantial expansion. I could almost picture the shogun exiling any opposition there but not much sustained settlement.

Otherwise I think there are two possibilities: If a new khanate, be it Sibir or someone else forms within ~20 years it's possible that they can counteract the Manchu and the Ming or a native Chinese dynasty can play the two off one another. Otherwise, I think it most likely that the khans end up as loose tributaries of the Qing.
 
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