Fate of Lithuania without the Partitions: a Polish Ireland?

[Augenis]

This is just a possible scenario that I thought of, not sure if it is accurate or very likely, but bear with me and give your thoughts.

So, despite being in a closer or more distant union with Poland for 400 years, Lithuania managed to retain a fierce separate identity that even the Polonization of the nobility and large scale Polish influence was unable to chip away, even before the Lithuanian National Revival. Much like the Lithuanians were trying to break the personal union after the death of Vytautas, they tried to prevent the signing of the Union of Lublin, and exerted influence to stop the unification of Poland and Lithuania with the May 3rd Constitution, events going from the 15th to the 18th centuries. So that is a historical fact.

Now, let's imagine a scenario where the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth never collapsed or is partitioned, let's say that the Commonwealth is strong enough to survive past it's OTL death date. It begins to modernize, industrialize, serfdom is abolished, etc.

What I propose is that in this scenario, Lithuania would eventually break away and become the equivalent of what Ireland was to the United Kingdom. That is, a country which speaks the language of their former overlord (Polish/English), but nevertheless retains a fierce national identity and committing to attempts to revitalize their dying original language (Lithuanian/Irish). Perhaps Poland would still retain the title of "Rzeczpospolita", like the UK is still the UK despite the loss of Ireland, or most of it.

Any thoughts?

 

[B-29_Bomber]

Nope. Lithuania would be more like Scotland than anything.

If you want a Polish Ireland look at Ruthenia.

 

[Augenis]

Nope. Lithuania would be more like Scotland than anything.

If you want a Polish Ireland look at Ruthenia.

Why so?

 

[JackLumber]

Nope. Lithuania would be more like Scotland than anything.

If you want a Polish Ireland look at Ruthenia.

Ruthenia is a much bigger headache than the Irish, the Irish didn't have the luxury of asking the Russian bear for help.

 

[B-29_Bomber]

Ruthenia is a much bigger headache than the Irish, the Irish didn't have the luxury of asking the Russian bear for help.

Yes, but they'd be the closest example the PLC is going to get.

You'll never get a one for one comparison. The situations between the UK and the PLC are just too different.

Why so?

Well, I'm not PLC expert, but basically Ruthenia basically has no real stake in the PLC (ergo, it's called the PLC, not the PLRC). Plus I think Ruthenia is basically conquered territory, conquered under the crown of Lithuania and then integrated into the PLC during the union.

 

[Augenis]

Yes, but they'd be the closest example the PLC is going to get.

You'll never get a one for one comparison. The situations between the UK and the PLC are just too different.

Why wouldn't Lithuania be the closest example to Ireland?

 

[PhilippeO]

becauee Lithuanian share religion (Catholicism) with Poland ?

better comparison probably with Ulster Protestant, considering Vilna had rather large Belarussian people preWW.

 

[Augenis]

becauee Lithuanian share religion (Catholicism) with Poland ?

better comparison probably with Ulster Protestant, considering Vilna had rather large Belarussian people preWW.

I meant in the "breakaway nation which still uses the language of it's former overlord, but trying to rejuvenate it's original language" way.

 

[Mackus]

Lithuanian and Ruthenian nobles, be them catholic, protestant, or orthodox, were seamlessly integrated into Commonwealth.
It was the Cossacks who wanted Commonwealth of tree nations, because they wanted special privilege to Cossacks. Ruthenian uprisings against Commonwealth were mostly classist, not religious or ethnic in nature.

You could have, at best, vaguely similar thing in Lithuania. Anti-aristocrat independence movement based in Kaunas.
But I just cannot imagine that anywhere outside territory of modern Lithuania (and even ppl of Vilnus would be doubtful) there would be significant majority that'd want to break away from Commonwealth.

 

[PhilippeO]

would Lithuanian language survive if they have another hundred years in PLC ? they might end up like Kashubians or other Polish dialect. incentive to be closer to Poland while distancing themselves from Orthodox Serfs might push to Lithuanian language extinction.

 

[Augenis]

would Lithuanian language survive if they have another hundred years in PLC ? they might end up like Kashubians or other Polish dialect. incentive to be closer to Poland while distancing themselves from Orthodox Serfs might push to Lithuanian language extinction.

Uh, that is quite literally what I was proposing in the OP.

 

[Mackus]

would Lithuanian language survive if they have another hundred years in PLC ? they might end up like Kashubians or other Polish dialect. incentive to be closer to Poland while distancing themselves from Orthodox Serfs might push to Lithuanian language extinction.

They survived hundred+ years of tsarist Russia, so they'd survive that time under far more tolerant Commonwealth.
Polish-speaking people around Vilnus were self-identifying as Lithuanians who wanted to continue Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. This changed when Lithuanian National Revival took aggressively anti-Polish form, this pushed Polish-speaking Lithuanians into self-identifying as Poles. For example, in 1939 when Soviets temporarily handed over Vilnus to Lithuania, Poles were relieved that Soviet terror was over now that they were with their Lithuanian brothers, until Lithuanians started doing crazy shit like renaming all streets from Polish to Lithuanian which almost nobody in the city spoke (most spoke Jewish and Ruthenian, with Polish being very close.)
To get "Irish" Lithuania, you'd need to reverse the trend. Instead of Lithuanians holding idiot ball and pushing Polish-speakers into becoming Poles, you'd need Polish government trying to really aggressively force standardized Polish on local people. But they'd need to ridiculously brutal, since almost all countries effectively standardized their languages without causing massive separatist movements among formerly loyal peoples.

 

[B-29_Bomber]

They survived hundred+ years of tsarist Russia, so they'd survive that time under far more tolerant Commonwealth.

Perhaps that's because of a siege mentality under the Russians where resistance to authority meant embracing their Lithuanian culture and language.

Whereas under a Polish led tolerant Commonwealth might have led to the Lithuanians accepting Polish language and culture much more than they did Russian in OTL.

It probably wouldn't lead to an extinction of the Lithuanian language by OTL 2017. If Welsh can survive in some form as a language, then certainly Lithuanian could quite easily.

But do remember that embracing the Commonwealth as an identity more or less meant accepting the Polish language.

 

[Augenis]

Perhaps that's because of a siege mentality under the Russians where resistance to authority meant embracing their Lithuanian culture and language.

Whereas under a Polish led tolerant Commonwealth might have led to the Lithuanians accepting Polish language and culture much more than they did Russian in OTL.

On the other hand, the Polonization of the Lithuanians was largely limited to the nobility (while the leaders of the Lithuanian National Revival arose from the peasantry), whereas Russification was shoved down everyone's throats.

 

[PhilippeO]

under Russian Empire, Lithuania ruled by Orthodox Russian-speakers and surrounded by Orthodox Belarussian-serf; so Lithuanian language was preserved to retain their distinctive culture of Lithuanian Catholic nobles.

under Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, Lithuanian nobility have co-ruling noble Catholic classes in Poland, while surrounded by Orthodox Belarussian serf. any Catholic Lithuanian would have inentive to follow their noble to be Catholic and Polish speaking to differentiate themselves from surrounding serf and to join ruling class of PLC which is majority Poles.

-

in Russian Empire, Lithuanian couldn't be join or marry ruling class unless they convert to Orthodoxy and become Russian speakers; while in Commonwealth, Lituanian could easily join or marry ruling class by simply learning language without need to change their religion or culture.

in Russian Empire, the ruler culture (Russian language and Orthodox religion) have similarity with surrounding serf culture (Belarussian language and Orthodox religion), so Lithuanian-speaking Catholic had no incentive to change their language; while in Commonwealth, Polish language and Catholicism is marked difference from surrounding Belarussian serf, so there are incentive to be more similar to Poles while more different from Belarussian.

 

[marcinL]

On the other hand, the Polonization of the Lithuanians was largely limited to the nobility (while the leaders of the Lithuanian National Revival arose from the peasantry), whereas Russification was shoved down everyone's throats.

Poland surviving into 19 c. would mean beginning of elementary education for masses likely conducted in, you guessed it, Polish (and maybe Lithuanian in Samogitia - Belarusians and Ukrainians/Ruthenians would have to fight for education in their language like in otl Poles did, and mostly failed to achieve it), and migration to cities where immigrants would have to use the dominant majority's language

 

[Jan Olbracht]

England-Scotland is way better analogy to PLC than England-Ireland. Polish-Lithuanian Union started with Lithuanian dynasty taking Polish throne, not with conquest. Lithuanians were not turned to peasants ruled by Polish nobles settled on their land, they had their own nobility. Also Lithuanian separatism during the time of Commonwealth was insignificant, except during Deluge, when PLC was seemingly falling. Nothing comparable to Cossac uprisings. Even Charles XII of Sweden just replaced Augustus II with Leszczyński instead of creating independent Grand Duchy of Lithuania again-by the time of Great Northern War it was no support for separation

 

[Augenis]

Also Lithuanian separatism during the time of Commonwealth was insignificant, except during Deluge, when PLC was seemingly falling. Nothing comparable to Cossac uprisings. Even Charles XII of Sweden just replaced Augustus II with Leszczyński instead of creating independent Grand Duchy of Lithuania again-by the time of Great Northern War it was no support for separation

Now that is just false. Throughout the history of the PLC, the Lithuanian nobility for numerous times upheld their ideals of an independent GDL and caused numerous problems for the Poles.

In many elections, the Lithuanians threatened with electing a different King (they especially tangled with the idea of electing a Russian tsar) and thus separating from Poland, and numerous Kings of the PLC, like Stephen Bathory, had to make compromises with the Lithuanians to keep the Union intact.

The reason for why Charles XII did not try to create an independent Lithuania was not because the Lithuanians did not want to separate, it was because the Lithuanian nobility had slaughtered each other in a noble civil war right before the beginning of the Great Northern War. House Sapieha, the primary defenders of Lithuanian autonomy at the time, were defeated in the Battle of Valkininkai in 1700. Half a century before that, the Lithuanians invited Sweden to invade the Commonwealth during the Deluge.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Hieronim Radziejowski, Polish noble, encouraged Charles X to invade PLC few years before Deluge. But there was no need to invite Swedes-Charles Gustav had large army of mercenaries and no money to pay them, war was only solution to solve that problem.
In fact Lithuanians were not that much more troublesome for Commonwealth than...Poles.
Voivodes of Poznań and Kalisz surrendered Greater Poland to Charles X just like Radziwiłł did in Lithuania (and it is often stated that Radziwiłł's move was realpolitik -most of GDL was in Russian hands at the moment, Radziwiłł hoped for Swedish aid to drive Russians out of the Duchy, Union of Keidanai was intended as anti-Russian pact). Nobles of both Crown and Grand Duchy collaborated with Swedes and rebelled against Swedes. Janusz Radziwiłł died in his castle besiged by Lithuanian nobles loyal to John Casimir, under leadership of future hetman Sapieha.
Also it was Polish magnate Jerzy Lubomirski who led rebellion against John Casimir and his forces defeated royal army (which included Lithuanian forces under hetman Pac) at the battle of Mątwy in 1666 and massacred 4000 royal soldiers, and it happend when Commonwealth fought war against Russia!

Back to opening question-19th century would bring rise of Ruthenian nationalism-Ruthenian peasants, Orthodox or Eastern rite Catholics in both Crown and Grand Duchy would see Roman Catholic Polish and Lithuanian nobles as their enemies and oppressors. So yes-GDL would resemble Ireland to some degree-with Ruthenians as Irish Catholics and Lithuanian nobles as Protestants!

 

[Jan Olbracht]

It is likely that Lithuanian nobles would initially support rise of separate Ruthenian national identity to counterbalance Russian influence, like Poles in Galizia did with Ukrainians IOTL (and what Poles would propably also do in eastern voivodships ITTL) which will quickly turns bad, as Ruthenians were always the biggest ethnic group in GDL.
And about language-Lithuanian nobility was predominatly Polish speaking at the time of Partitions, but not entirely-lesser nobility of Samogitia remained Lithuanian speaking up to 20th century (it is open question if they would remain Lithuanian speaking with PLC surviving).