Fate of Korea after Operation Downfall

Silent Cal

Silent Cal

Let's say, for whatever reason, the Trinity test gets delayed and the Bomb can't be made ready on time, Operation Downfall (a.k.a. the invasion of the Home Islands) isn't scrapped.

I'm assuming the Soviets, having recently just declared war on the Japanese are going to chip in, but my question is what will happen to Korea post-war? Since the Americans will be focused on conquering the Home Islands, will the Soviets instead make a drive to the peninsula via Manchuria?
 

ComradeTovarich

Yes, the Soviets had plans to take the entire Korean peninsula. With all American attention on Downfall, the Soviets should have a very easy time painting Korea red. Kim Il Sung would be installed as head of the government in Korea. From there, the Soviets could either create an independent Korean state with a government puppetted by Moscow or amalgamate it into the USSR as another SSR. The latter is unlikely given that the Koreans generally resisted foreign Japanese rule but it is a possibility if Kim could convince the people that it would be beneficial.
 

The Red

I'll second that. Korea, Hokkaido and possibly northern Honshu will fall to the Red Army. However the Japanese may surrender the moment the Soviets jump in, this was after all a nightmare scenario for the Japanese and may have prompted them to surrender as much as the Atomic Bombs in OTL.
 

Don Lardo

Calcion said:
Let's say, for whatever reason, the Trinity test gets delayed and the Bomb can't be made ready on time, Operation Downfall (a.k.a. the invasion of the Home Islands) isn't scrapped.
Click to expand...


"Downfall" was scrapped before the Trinity test took place. In the June meeting on the subject, the Joint Chiefs and theater commanders, with the exception of MacArthur, were either totally against "Downfall" or wholly ambivalent towards it. As a result, Truman only signed off on continued planning and preparations holding off on authorizing the actual invasions until later.

With Japan still in the war, the US will not be able to occupy the southern half of the peninsular as prearranged and the Soviets will occupy it all, most likely after a brief pause for resupply.

The Soviet Union might, however, withdraw from the southern half of Korea and turn it over to US occupiers as previously agreed. Similar withdrawals were made in Europe, an area of far more consequence, so it's entirely plausible that the Soviets would do the same in Korea, a region, which then, was of seemingly little consequence.
 
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