Fate of Italy if Belisarius doesn't invade

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Deleted member 1487

If the Byzantinians don't turn West and try to reconquer Italy, what happens to the Ostrogothic kingdom there? Do the Lombards move in and try to take over, or do the Italians just absorb the Ostrogoths? Perhaps a later move by a more stable and powerful Byzantium conquers and holds it?
 
If Justinian didn't try to conquer Ostrogothic Italy, I think we would see a stronger Lombard Kingdom in there.
The reason why Lombards invade Italy was, AFAIK, the Avars.
Ostrogothic Kingdom was in a steady decline since the death of Theodoric the Great, so I think they wouldn't be able to resist the Lombards.
Although it looks like Italy would still be devastated by Frankish-Lombard War...
 
Italy

The Ostrogoths may have given up Arianism and adopted Orthodox Christianity had their kingdom lasted longer. It is also possible that southern Italy including Sicily would have fallen to the Arabs after the rise of Islam.
 
Italy is much, much more prosperous. I'm currently writing a fairly in depth TL exploring a very different sixth century, in which one of the elements is a surviving Ostrogothic Italy. In this TL, I'm considering having the Ostrogoths fight wars with the Romans, but not be actually reconquered by them. The end result is an Italy in which the Emperor in Constantinople theoretically reigns supreme, and appoints the Pope and various Chalcedonian bishops while the Ostrogothic King wields Imperial power in practice.

Ultimately, I can see the Ostrogoths abandoning Arianism and converting to Chalcedonian Orthodoxy.
 
Hmm, to what extent does the plague effect them in a non-Gothic War scenario? When I asked this question about non-invasion before I got a lot of responses that the plague would still screw lots of things up.
 

Deleted member 1487

Hmm, to what extent does the plague effect them in a non-Gothic War scenario? When I asked this question about non-invasion before I got a lot of responses that the plague would still screw lots of things up.

Which plague? The Great Plague in the Eastern Roman Empire in 542?


Italy is much, much more prosperous. I'm currently writing a fairly in depth TL exploring a very different sixth century, in which one of the elements is a surviving Ostrogothic Italy. In this TL, I'm considering having the Ostrogoths fight wars with the Romans, but not be actually reconquered by them. The end result is an Italy in which the Emperor in Constantinople theoretically reigns supreme, and appoints the Pope and various Chalcedonian bishops while the Ostrogothic King wields Imperial power in practice.

Ultimately, I can see the Ostrogoths abandoning Arianism and converting to Chalcedonian Orthodoxy.

Could you post the link to that TL?


If Justinian didn't try to conquer Ostrogothic Italy, I think we would see a stronger Lombard Kingdom in there.
The reason why Lombards invade Italy was, AFAIK, the Avars.
Ostrogothic Kingdom was in a steady decline since the death of Theodoric the Great, so I think they wouldn't be able to resist the Lombards.
Although it looks like Italy would still be devastated by Frankish-Lombard War...

Were the Lombards strong enough to take on the Ostrogoths? Might they not just have been pushed into France instead, if Italy is too strong to break into? The Lombards just lost to the Avars and the Ostrogoths are the strongest of the Eastern Germanic tribes. The decline was not so great as to keep the Goths from putting up major resistance to the Byzantines.

Another question though, if the Eastern Roman Empire doesn't go after Italy, they probably won't go after the Vandals, so what happens to them? Do they just wait around to be overrun by the Arabs, do they get absorbed before then, or do they strengthen over time, especially as they will continue to have trade and piracy in the Medditerranean to fund their empire.
 
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Things would turn out a lot differently.

Africa and Sicily would still likely be conquered by Belisarius.

Then, Justinian would most certainly divert all remaining imperial resources to a massive eastern war with Persia, which was inevitable.

A definitive early conclusion to Persian aggression during or just after Justinian's reign would change history a great deal.

The empire wouldn't be overtaxed in having to defend Italy and the East, and could likely maintain itself against Persian incursions in a way that it was unable to do IRL.
 

Deleted member 1487

Things would turn out a lot differently.

Africa and Sicily would still likely be conquered by Belisarius.

Then, Justinian would most certainly divert all remaining imperial resources to a massive eastern war with Persia, which was inevitable.

A definitive early conclusion to Persian aggression during or just after Justinian's reign would change history a great deal.

The empire wouldn't be overtaxed in having to defend Italy and the East, and could likely maintain itself against Persian incursions in a way that it was unable to do IRL.

Then aren't the Byzantines locked in a holding pattern for the rest of the empire's life? They have to remain on the defensive against all threats from the east forever.

Italy is left in peace to a degree, but is still very reliant on African grain, right? So they have to cut a deal with Constantinople.
 
Given how many years and how much resources were needed to take Italy the Byzantines might be much better off if the invasion had not been tried but with the impression that it would be easy...:(

The Byzantines were able to grab a third of modern Spain with astounding ease so if they have a portion of the resources in Italy available might they be able to take all of Iberia instead? Undoubtedly they still take Sicily and the lower part of Italy at some point.
 
Even if the Ostrogoth Kingdom eventually falls in one century or two, the effects on Italy would be huge. "Italian" as an identity is something than appeared in the nineteen century -or even in the twentieth; the effects of centuries as a conjunct of independent kingdoms and city-states.

But a longer Ortrogoth kingdom would give a pararell with Spain: Visigoth Hispania dissapeared, to be replaced with half a dozen nations -but those natios remembered Hispania and spent generations of wars and dinastic marriages in an attempt to rebuild it.
 
Yes, Italy will remain dependent upon African grain, which will likely mean Constantinople is able to grab Ostrogothic kings by the balls and squeeze when they get uppity. I also agree that at some stage, the largely Greek speaking areas of Italy will probably pass directly into the Byzantine sphere of influence, if nothing else, so Constantinople is able to maintain sea routes with Africa.

The TL I'm writing is yet to be published here. The POD is Justinian and Theodora being overthrown and exiled following the Nika Riots, and being succeeded by one Hypatius, the pleasant, mildly homosexual bachelor nephew of the Emperor Anastasius. ITTL, the conquest of Africa goes ahead as planned, but Hypatius dies of natural causes in 535, shortly after Belisarius returns to Constantinople. Belisarius is then proclaimed Emperor against his will, and rules for forty one years. ITTL, there are Gothic Wars, but they are nothing like as extensive or damaging as OTL, and end up with the Romans retaking parts of Southern Italy, but the North remaining an independent, Ostrogothic allied state.

A map I've done for the TL, in the year 576, can be seen below.

576AD Nika!.png
 
Then aren't the Byzantines locked in a holding pattern for the rest of the empire's life? They have to remain on the defensive against all threats from the east forever.

Not necessarily. The provinces conquered by Belisarius needed a period of time to recover, to reintegrate into the empire. Without the chronic insecurity and manpower shortages that were partially the result of the Italian expeditions, the empire could focus piecemeal on the security of Africa and Sicily.

My point is that Italy was not necessarily permanently lost, but trying to reconquer Sicily, Italy and Africa all at once put the empire in a very bad position, which essentially guaranteed the near collapse of the empire in the east after Justinian.
 
Horgus, and Spain? As it was the Byzantines were able to take a nice slice for minimal cost by simply intervening during a internal squabble. If they have Belasarius in charge and no Italian campaign...
 
Spain was a flight of fancy.

The peninsula should be kept divided and under mutually warring yet friendly client kingdoms.

Send bishops, maintain economic and social contacts but leave the peninsula to its own designs.

Any money or troops sent to Spain are a waste.
 
I Agree with Horgus that Spain is probably too much of a stretch, Grimm- it's like Italy all over again, only without the ease of access. Furthermore, an Emperor Belisarius doesn't neccesarily help the Empire too much, or make the situation any better than it was under Justinian. Belisarius was an incredibly gifted general, but he could be weak willed and vacillating- he certainly lacked Justinian's genius for picking loyal and dependable subordinates. He'd be a decent Emperor, but having him on the throne doesn't magically handwave away all of the problems that became increasingly apparent from about 560 onwards.
 

Deleted member 1487

So a surviving Ostrogothic Italy (or something more Germanic...) is a possibility? I mean, Italy stays united under the Goths and becomes a player in the future of Europe, countering Frankish expansion. Does it become a vassal of the Byzantines?
 
The Byzantines have potential allies in the Suevi and the Franks while the Visigoths were sufficiently weak that OTL a very modest Byzantine force simply walked in and took a third of Iberia for minimal effort. Given that and how long this territory was kept a larger effort might well have taken it all.
 
Which plague? The Great Plague in the Eastern Roman Empire in 542?




Could you post the link to that TL?




Were the Lombards strong enough to take on the Ostrogoths? Might they not just have been pushed into France instead, if Italy is too strong to break into? The Lombards just lost to the Avars and the Ostrogoths are the strongest of the Eastern Germanic tribes. The decline was not so great as to keep the Goths from putting up major resistance to the Byzantines.

Another question though, if the Eastern Roman Empire doesn't go after Italy, they probably won't go after the Vandals, so what happens to them? Do they just wait around to be overrun by the Arabs, do they get absorbed before then, or do they strengthen over time, especially as they will continue to have trade and piracy in the Medditerranean to fund their empire.

Justinian attacked the Vandals first and because of the deceptively easy victory (in reality it was a close run thing) decided that Italy too would be a cheap and glorious victory.

North Africa in Imperial hands but a POD to stop the invasion of Italy is needed.

A continuing Ostrogothic Italy would probably result in a more prosperous peninsula and an absorbtion of the Goths into the Roman population including the adoption of the catholic version of christianity just like their cousins eventually did in Spain.
 
The continued existence of the Ostrogoth Kingdom would leave Italy to be a bit prosperous than it was. The Gothic Wars did sort of screw the peninsula and once you think about it, a lot of the historic monuments from the Roman Empire and Republic were destroyed or heavily damaged during this time-period.
 
Were the Lombards strong enough to take on the Ostrogoths? Might they not just have been pushed into France instead, if Italy is too strong to break into?

Or come to Italy, but as refugees, not under a king of their own?

As I understand it, these Barbarian "nations" were basically confederacies of many smaller tribes, who rallied behind a single king. So it was relatively easy for tribes from one group to switch allegiance to another. Thus it is entirely possible that some of the "Ostrogoths" expelled from the Peninsula in the 550s came back as "Lombards" a decade later. This could easily have happened the other way round, and the Goths could have used the reinforcements. They probably get some Gepids as well.
 
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