Fate of Hong Kong and timing of its retrocession to a noncommunist China?

[raharris1973]

In OTL Hong Kong was taken by the British by force, but eventually returned by a peacefully negotiated timetable.

If twentieth century Chinese history had unfolded differently yielding not a Communist government by the last half and last quarter of the twentieth century, but a government tracing its lineage to the imperial regime, the Beiyang Republic, the Kuomintang, or a Japanese puppet Republic instead, would the handover of Hong Kong back to China likely have been as smooth and peaceful as OTL, or more violently contested and messy?

 

[Remitonov]

That really depends on what the state of China and the UK are, and it can vary widely. A unified government, whether a surviving Qing dynasty, victorious Kuomintang after the Civil War or whatever, can get a peaceful return of Hong Kong just as the CCP did in real life, provided the UK's naval power declines dramatically as per OTL. On the other hand, a divided China or a China that has joined one of Britain's enemies in a war could seize Hong Kong violently. We just need more information on what the scenario is.

 

[CASSICTOR2]

That really depends on what the state of China and the UK are, and it can vary widely. A unified government, whether a surviving Qing dynasty, victorious Kuomintang after the Civil War or whatever, can get a peaceful return of Hong Kong just as the CCP did in real life, provided the UK's naval power declines dramatically as per OTL. On the other hand, a divided China or a China that has joined one of Britain's enemies in a war could seize Hong Kong violently. We just need more information on what the scenario is.

Honestly even if Qing or the Kuomintang were in power of China, I think it doesn't change the fact that they want Hong Kong back for justice of their territory to be legitimated

 

[focus9912]

In OTL Hong Kong was taken by the British by force, but eventually returned by a peacefully negotiated timetable.

Well the lease on the New Territories does need to end on 1997, which in a way set a time limit for British control of Hong Kong.

There is a timeline on Nationalist China that does touch on this topic.

 

[Hugh Third of Five]

If the KMT is in charge, I think there would be more American pressure to give it back.