Fate of German South-West Africa in a CP victory world?

In OTL, German South-West Africa was occupied by South Africa for the duration of the war.

Assume that the Central Powers attain victory, through whatever means (no US entry, for example). Would South-West Africa remain under South African control during the peace negotiations, or would it be possible to have it revert to German control?
 

cpip

Gone Fishin'
It really depends on when and how the CP victory happens. If it's the "miracle on the Marne" victory in the West, then the Germans might just emerge victorious before the South Africans can even finish consolidating their gains, which probably can guarantee the Germans can negotiate its retention.
 
Unless the war is over in a year or Britain feels highly threatened to the point of a White Peace within 2-3 years, Germany is going to loose its colonies win or lose.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
The Dominion of South Africa will not want to give it up. So unless Germany wins quickly (first 6 months) or does better in Africa like my TL, it has to be negotiate back. If a betting man, I would go with the favorite to least likely.

1) Germany loses SWA but gets substantial colonial gains elsewhere out of France or Belgium colonies. While not a clear colonial swap, the Germans can claim it is a swap.

2) Germany gets nothing back in Africa that it does not hold at end of war.

3) Germany gets back SWA. We get major UK versus South Africa issues here.
 
Unless the war is over in a year or Britain feels highly threatened to the point of a White Peace within 2-3 years, Germany is going to loose its colonies win or lose.

If Germany wins in Europe., everything is negotiable elsewhere. Britain won't give a damn about SouthWest if German divisions stay on the channel coast and Germany is turning Belgium into a puppet.

Without such a clear victory, my guess is that Britain and Germany would negotiate a white peace and France gives what is needed be these two.
 
If Germany wins in Europe., everything is negotiable elsewhere. Britain won't give a damn about SouthWest if German divisions stay on the channel coast and Germany is turning Belgium into a puppet.

Without such a clear victory, my guess is that Britain and Germany would negotiate a white peace and France gives what is needed be these two.

Of all the colonies, the only ones that I would consider negotiable in a Germany wins scenario are SW Afrika, Tsingtao and Samoa/New Guinea. IMHO they get everything else back regardless. These, the occupying powers will not want to give up and it will depend on the political-military condition of the dominions in defeat as to whether they get to negotiate in a strong position or not.

If South Africa emerges strong enough, then Germany might agree a split, or might even agree to cede it in return for South African acceptance of German gains in Katanga.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Degrees of Victory

Most last war CP victories that I regard as plausible end up with negotiated settlements where Britain and France recognize the BLT and Germany gets to annex Luxembourg, Briey and maybe a slice of Belgium. In that sort of a limited win it's hard seeing Germany getting SW Afrika back. Indeed I can see some in high places advocating a Seduce South Africa strategy going forward which would start with accepting the loss of SWA.
 
Most last war CP victories that I regard as plausible end up with negotiated settlements where Britain and France recognize the BLT and Germany gets to annex Luxembourg, Briey and maybe a slice of Belgium. In that sort of a limited win it's hard seeing Germany getting SW Afrika back. Indeed I can see some in high places advocating a Seduce South Africa strategy going forward which would start with accepting the loss of SWA.


If they were smart (a very big if) they would seek a deal by which SWA became a fifth province of South Africa, with its inhabitants granted full right of vote etc, and representation in Parliament. Thereafter, try and cosy up to SA in the hope that it will get a pro-German government before too long.
 
Top