Fate of Brest-Litovsk lands

Assuming any ‘US does not intervene in WW1 & Germany squeezes out a victory or at least a negotiated peace’- scenario what would be the fate of the vast Eastern territories that Germany occupied from Russia?

Is it conceivable that the Bolsheviks still muster enough strength to regain these lands or a part of them sth. like OTL? Or is a reignited war between Russia and Germany an ASB?

In case a number of puppet-states- Poland, Ukraine, Bielorussia, Baltic states- are established, will the Soviet Union be able to attract these into its sphere of influence or will they remain firmly in German hands?

I cannot asses accurately the post-war relative strengths of these states and statal-formations.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Assuming any ‘US does not intervene in WW1 & Germany squeezes out a victory or at least a negotiated peace’- scenario what would be the fate of the vast Eastern territories that Germany occupied from Russia?

Is it conceivable that the Bolsheviks still muster enough strength to regain these lands or a part of them sth. like OTL? Or is a reignited war between Russia and Germany an ASB?

In case a number of puppet-states- Poland, Ukraine, Bielorussia, Baltic states- are established, will the Soviet Union be able to attract these into its sphere of influence or will they remain firmly in German hands?

I cannot asses accurately the post-war relative strengths of these states and statal-formations.

You ask a complicated question, a lot depends on the exact POD.

Lenin ending up in power was a low probability event. So if the USA does not enter the war, he may not even be let out of Switzerland.

In a German win without the USA in, the ToBL will be different. Signed by different Russians on a different date. But google "Polish Border Strip" and "Kingdom of Poland" to get the broad plans.

Once Russia leaves the war, I can't really see Russia (White, Red, Other) restarting the war against Germany. If it could not win with Germany blockade, how is it going to win with Germany not blockaded? It would be a really dumb move, and the Russians would lose.

Once Russia recovers, the story of Eastern Europe will be a fight for influence in the client states, and the details are too complex to predict.
 
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