Fate of Belarus, Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, the Caucasus, etc after CP victory?

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Some thoughts:

Latvia+ Estonia= Baltic German dominated state
Lithuania= German Puppet with a German Prince as Head of State
Poland= a clusterfuck, where Germany blocks every attempt at establishing a permanent government.
Finland= independent, pro-German nation with a German king.
Belarus= A German experiment. A state built up from the ground. (no big Belarussian identity yet)
Ukraine= The hetmanate exist as a German puppet
Armenia= Ottomans annex the rest of Armenia
Azerbaijan= A Ottoman friendly state
Georgia= a buffer state between the Ottomans and Azerbaijan and Soviet Russia
 
Poland= a clusterfuck, where Germany blocks every attempt at establishing a permanent government.

I agree with most of what you said, but disagree here. Pilsudski was more than willing to work with the Germans and the Regency Kingdom of Poland until he saw that the Central Powers were likely to be defeated. At that time, he became much more intransigent and demanded Poland be treated as a sovereign state.

In either scenario where the CP is obviously headed to victory, or that the CP pulls out a victory at the end, Pilsudski and other Polish nationalists will take a half loaf of bread rather than none.

There will be a German king of Poland, and the Polish economy will be dominated by German interests, and it will be a satellite state like the rest of the eastern Europe. However, it will be something Polish nationalists can use to build a real state and advance the goals of Polish nationalism.

There will be flash points of conflict in the years to come, but Pilsudski and others are likely to judge the initial balance of power well and be accommodating for the first decade or so.
 
Was there ever a German plan to install a new branch of the Hohenzollerns in Romania? Ferdinand refused to recognize the treaty of Bucharest and with it Germany's right to control Romanian oil production.
 
Was there ever a German plan to install a new branch of the Hohenzollerns in Romania? Ferdinand refused to recognize the treaty of Bucharest and with it Germany's right to control Romanian oil production.

I'm not sure, but I think an Iron Guard Romania emerging is possible (but I'm not sure if the Germans would tolerate it like in Kaiserreich). I think they would have wanted to install a new branch.
 
It's also likely that Belarus is partitioned between Lithuania and Ukraine, given that there was little resembling a Belorussian identity at this point.
 
It's also likely that Belarus is partitioned between Lithuania and Ukraine, given that there was little resembling a Belorussian identity at this point.

many would consider themselves polish or lithuanian north of the pripyat .. south of that line is more ukrainain ... to the east you would get many thinking themselves russian ..
 
many would consider themselves polish or lithuanian north of the pripyat .. south of that line is more ukrainain ... to the east you would get many thinking themselves russian ..

Well given that Russia is out for the count and that Germany won't give up what they have then they'd probably get given to Ukraine.
 
I'm not sure, but I think an Iron Guard Romania emerging is possible (but I'm not sure if the Germans would tolerate it like in Kaiserreich). I think they would have wanted to install a new branch.

I think Germany would be hostile to anything in Eastern Europe (besides allies like Bulgaria) that isn't a conservative, pro-Berlin kingdom with a German on the throne. Fascists would get further by being pro-German and adopting a Fascist Italy type relationship with the monarchy. Even then, Germany may be concerned, since Romania is so strategically important.

A fascist coup is going to bring in a German intervention.
 
There was a Belarusian state. It was weak, but it existed.

The identity was apparently enough of a thing that the Soviets made it an SSR within the Soviet Union.

yes there was a state and identity .. but it was complicated and vague .. a mix of many heritages and groups all blended into area.

many considering themselves the real Lithuanians or greater Lithuanian. honestly it is very complicated as everyone has had a chance to screw over Belarus over the years that they perpetual state of grim whats next about them..

The Russian Empire did its best to russify the area and the Soviets continued the trend when they moved west.

recently i see a real belarusian identity materialized. where people say no i am not russian .. i am Belarusian ( byela-roosiean )

back to topic ..

what would the germans have done?

as stated .. you would see german princes take the thrones of Poland, the baltics, belarus ( if it was not merged with or combined and split upon ethnic lines between Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine.)

Ukraine would be the interesting piece, i could see some Crimean government, but they would want some form of ruthenian Kyiv based government as well, so you would more than likely get a split of the two spheres. I also believe at the time that Ukraine had a large German population in minority as well.

next and most important question will be how long will these princes tote the line from berlin. there populations while maybe at first in favor of new independence might tire if they trade one devil for the next.

also AH had its eyes on parts of Galacia
 
Last edited:
I think Germany would be hostile to anything in Eastern Europe (besides allies like Bulgaria) that isn't a conservative, pro-Berlin kingdom with a German on the throne. Fascists would get further by being pro-German and adopting a Fascist Italy type relationship with the monarchy. Even then, Germany may be concerned, since Romania is so strategically important.

A fascist coup is going to bring in a German intervention.

So maybe what OTL Romania was like.

yes there was a state and identity .. but it was complicated and vague .. a mix of many heritages and groups all blended into area.

many considering themselves the real Lithuanians or greater Lithuanian. honestly it is very complicated as everyone has had a chance to screw over Belarus over the years that they perpetual state of grim whats next about them..

The Russian Empire did its best to russify the area and the Soviets continued the trend when they moved west.

recently i see a real belarusian identity materialized. where people say no i am not russian .. i am Belarusian ( byela-roosiean )

back to topic ..

what would the germans have done?

as stated .. you would see german princes take the thrones of Poland, the baltics, belarus ( if it was not merged with or combined and split upon ethnic lines between Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine.)

Ukraine would be the interesting piece, i could see some Crimean government, but they would want some form of ruthenian Kyiv based government as well, so you would more than likely get a split of the two spheres. I also believe at the time that Ukraine had a large German population in minority as well.

next and most important question will be how long will these princes tote the line from berlin. there populations while maybe at first in favor of new independence might tire if they trade one devil for the next.

also AH had its eyes on parts of Galacia

I think Germany has a vested interest in preventing its puppets from being too powerful so splitting Belarus seems unlikely to me.

In Ukraine the Germans supported The Hetmanat https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_State
 
In response to the Armenians' fate:
Was Germany aware of the Armenian genocide at this time? I know the Ottomans and Germans were allied, but Germany was a Christian nation and I can't see the Germans being very happy about fellow Christians being massacred by the millions.
First, Germany was too Ottoman friendly at the period, especially after these two allies became the 'great victors' of WW1. Secondly, the Germany might succumb to Ottoman and local propaganda about the Armenians being Entente puppets. Thirdly, Germany could claim Orthodox or Armenian branches of Christianity weren't compatitable with Calvinism, Lutheranism and Catholicism practiced by the local people [and same with most, if not all forms of Orthodoxy and English forms of Protestantism].

progress.gif

Realpolitik supersedes humanitarianism for the state.

Russia did not care about Armenian refugees, and Russia was an Orthodox state and a longstanding rival and now enemy of the Ottomans.

Protection of fellow Christians was only ever a pretext for intervention with the true aims of expanding the state's influence in a certain region. When it was not useful, it was not invoked. Germany will not care about Ottoman abuses, and it will be considered anti-German to suggest the Ottoman Empire is doing anything wrong.

 
Would it be possible for Germany to annex Estonia + Courland and integrate it into Germany's federal structure as Ghz. Livland? (Grand Duchy of Livonia)
 
Top