Fate of Belarus in a Polandwank scenario

BigBlueBox

Banned
Let's say that the Bolsheviks do much, much worse in the Polish-Soviet War. Maybe this is due to Bolshevik infighting (maybe Lenin dies earlier), some equivalent of the Kronstadt or Tambov rebellion occurring during the war, better performance by the Russian Whites, or something else. Whatever the cause, the war ends with Petliura's republic surviving and having borders roughly equivalent to the interbellum Ukrainian SSR, although the Russian Whites are still defeated eventually. It also ends with Poland occupying Belarus proper, Smolensk, and Bryansk. What would happen to Belarus? Is the Belarusian People's Republic allowed to return on the condition it recognizes Poland's eastern borders (same as OTL)? Are the Russian Whites given control of Belarus after a deal with Poland? Does Poland try directly annexing Belarus or forcing it into an Intermarium?
 
Wow, all of the interbellum Ukraine for Petliura's republic? That'd be some achievement. I think it could be doable with an early PoD (in 1918 say), but it's not really possible with only the Soviets doing worse in the Polish-Soviet war, since however that turns out, the Poles will be pretty darn tired at the end of whupping the Soviets.

As for Belarus, I am inclined to think that the NDs would push for at least a federal situation (even though they hated federalism) because they'd want to avoid giving non-Poles much say in how the Polish heartland was run. However, I can easily see them convincing themselves that Belarus could be Polonized, and annexing it directly. In both cases, I think Pilsudski's allies would do whatever the NDs allowed them to, so it really depends on which Dmowski decides is the lesser of two evils.

My bet is that a formally independent Belarusian satellite state is unlikely. With Polish blood staining the land and Pilsudski's allies and the old-style rightists eager to get back as much of the Commonwealth as they can, I think all factions would be strongly inclined to one of the above two results.

fasquardon
 
Could they?

Polonize Belarus? Depends on how hard they try I think.

If they try to Polonize it, IMO they'll provoke a backlash. If they don't actively try to Polonize it, then economic links going west into Poland proper, the growth of literacy and the introduction of television down the line (if Poland still has Belarus by the time it's relevant) could well lead to substantial Polonization.

In OTL, the Poles did fairly well at getting on with and integrating the Belarusians in Poland (insofar as they could given the level of development of the border lands - given another generation of development from a 1939 where WW2 doesn't happen, things could have gone either way), but very poorly with the Ukrainians. A big part of that, as I see it, it because they tried harder with the Ukrainians. Though there are many other factors from bad prior history, the decisions of some rather unpleasant actors on the Ukrainian nationalist side and from external support from Czechoslovakia and the Soviet Union that fuelled the poor situation between Poland and its Ukrainian minority.

One can certainly imagine a situation where the Poles work hard to make the Belarusians into Poles, alienate them, enabling unpleasant nationalists to gain power, who draw on support from Lithuania and the Soviet Union, all in the same timeline as the Poles didn't push Polonization of their Ukrainian minority, denying opportunities to their unpleasant nationalists, meaning Soviet and Czechoslovak efforts to destabilize Poland fall on infertile ground in Polish Ukraine... It's hard to know what would really happen, but one can argue that a straw/camel's back dynamic existed.

This is all just my opinion. Much depends on how you interpret the why of how interbellum Poland had better relations with its Belarusian minority and worse relations with its Ukrainian minority.

fasquardon
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
Wow, all of the interbellum Ukraine for Petliura's republic? That'd be some achievement. I think it could be doable with an early PoD (in 1918 say), but it's not really possible with only the Soviets doing worse in the Polish-Soviet war, since however that turns out, the Poles will be pretty darn tired at the end of whupping the Soviets.

As for Belarus, I am inclined to think that the NDs would push for at least a federal situation (even though they hated federalism) because they'd want to avoid giving non-Poles much say in how the Polish heartland was run. However, I can easily see them convincing themselves that Belarus could be Polonized, and annexing it directly. In both cases, I think Pilsudski's allies would do whatever the NDs allowed them to, so it really depends on which Dmowski decides is the lesser of two evils.

My bet is that a formally independent Belarusian satellite state is unlikely. With Polish blood staining the land and Pilsudski's allies and the old-style rightists eager to get back as much of the Commonwealth as they can, I think all factions would be strongly inclined to one of the above two results.

fasquardon
I put in the part about Ukraine being under Petliura because a Soviet Ukraine would make Belarus geographically undefendable. But would Poland really want to annex all of Belarus, including Smolensk and Bryansk? That’s several million more non-Poles to govern. Then again, nationalists could always impose some kind of Polish literacy test for voting if they thought adding minorities would ruin their electoral strength.
 
I would see them stopping at the vilno south to minsk then down the dniper valley going east over to gomel. anything else is very russified.
one has to realize that much of Belarus was actually Lithuania proper, other portions were polish, but the majority was Lithuanian. ( when I say Lithuanian I don't mean Baltic Lithuanian, I mean Belarus is for the most part LITHUANIAN. ( if you understand what I am saying ) ) https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/79/Lithuanian_state_in_13-15th_centuries.png

into ukrain proper? lviv.. possible other border areas. biggest issue is that Ukraine is well ukrainain. Cthey actually have a distinct culture unto themselves. so trying to go to the black see is probably a no go

By 1918 population transfers and movement had created a very russified environment in the Belarusian and Lithuanian heartland.

So what would Poland do. they would do their best to polanize, there is no doubt of this. however suppressing traditional Belarusian culture would be offensive so you would need to see some degree of autonomy for this to work in the long term.
 
If you by Polandwank mean Piłsudski's intermarium plan then Belarus wouldn't really be a Belarus but more like Grand Duchy of Lithuania - it's western border was meant to be a bit more at west than OTL Riga Treaty borders. It was meant to consist of three ethnic cantons - Lithuanian (Samogitia area, more or less OTL Lithuania), Polish (Grodno-Wilno "Polish belt") and Belarussian. Piłsudski knew that eastern ethinicites wouldn't agree to be in one state dominated by Poles, so he didn't propose federation but more of confederation/close alliance against Russia.

In my opinion at least until Piłsudski is in power in Poland he Belarussians would probrably live in peace but shit can easily hit the fan when more nationalist takes power in Poland.
 
I put in the part about Ukraine being under Petliura because a Soviet Ukraine would make Belarus geographically undefendable. But would Poland really want to annex all of Belarus, including Smolensk and Bryansk? That’s several million more non-Poles to govern. Then again, nationalists could always impose some kind of Polish literacy test for voting if they thought adding minorities would ruin their electoral strength.

Personally, I think it would be very hard indeed for a Polish Ukraine or a non-Socialist Ukraine to gain the Donbas. The agrarian regions of Ukraine are easier to tear off from the Soviet Union.

I doubt Poland would end up with Smolensk or Bryansk.

As to whether the Poles would annex Belarus, as I said before, I think it hinges entirely on what Dmowski decided was the lesser of two evils.

I'm not sure if Poland could impose literacy tests, the Entente powers imposed a strict treaty on Poland for how it should treat its minorities.

It was meant to consist of three ethnic cantons - Lithuanian (Samogitia area, more or less OTL Lithuania), Polish (Grodno-Wilno "Polish belt") and Belarussian.

Hmm. Now that would be interesting.

fasquardon
 
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