Fate of Africa and The Congo In World With Partitioned Belgium?

[AltoRegnant]

If we assume that Britain got very drunk or somehow was otherwise convinced to accept the Flahaut Plan, thus dividing Belgium up into pieces, what could we reasonably expect to befall Africa, if there's no Berlin Conference due to King Leopold deciding to own the single biggest region in Africa? Would another incident get the other powers to want a conference anyway? Who's in position to grab all the "free" land in the region?

I would assume Portugal could gradually build up the pink map and take the south of the colony, but would struggle against the other kingdoms of the congo basin, whom they have had numerous wars with and who would never stop resiesting, and would know the portuguese tricks. but who else could get in on it? would someone else wind up deciding to back the Congo in a bid to mess with portugal?

 

[p0lish_runn3r]

Pretty sure france is the biggest winner but portugal, germany, and britian will take chunks on their borders. Britian also most likely gets the katanga region which is very resource rich, so overall not bad for them.

 

[Flashman]

Pretty sure france is the biggest winner but portugal, germany, and britian will take chunks on their borders. Britian also most likely gets the katanga region which is very resource rich, so overall not bad for them.View attachment 689104

Probably a lot better for all parties involved in the long run

 

[Slime_blob]

Liechtenstein Congo seems interesting where after failing to buy Alaska they opted to get Congo

 

[OxSpace]

Why are we implying that the Scramble even happens in the first place? Especially with an 1830 POD. One of the most industrial areas in Europe just got partitioned and the rest of history is just railroaded? There'll still be colonization on the coast, but nothing remotely resembling the piercing of the interior like otl.

 

[pompejus]

Why are we implying that the Scramble even happens in the first place? Especially with an 1830 POD. One of the most industrial areas in Europe just got partitioned and the rest of history is just railroaded? There'll still be colonization on the coast, but nothing remotely resembling the piercing of the interior like otl.

Even though I think that the colonisation of the interior of Africa is not unavoidable, I doubt that the absense of Belgium would completely butterfly away European imperialism and the wish for prestige colonies. Even without Belgium, France would want to regain the prestige it lost by losing a large part of its colonies in the 18th century and Germany/Prussia and other new nations would want colonies for themselves to show they are great powers too, just like Great Britain and France. And Africa will be the easiest place to gain those colonies.

 

[OxSpace]

Even though I think that the colonisation of the interior of Africa is not unavoidable, I doubt that the absense of Belgium would completely butterfly away European imperialism and the wish for prestige colonies. Even without Belgium, France would want to regain the prestige it lost by losing a large part of its colonies in the 18th century and Germany/Prussia and other new nations would want colonies for themselves to show they are great powers too, just like Great Britain and France. And Africa will be the easiest place to gain those colonies.

The absence of Belgium has nothing to do with the Scramble not happening; nor does France having any lingering humiliation from the 7 years war. Again, "the rest of history is just railroaded?" There are several ways Germany could've united and the Franco-Prussian war was hardly destined to happen to trigger zealous French generals going crazy in West Africa that'd domino into the rest of Europe pouncing on Africa. Germany also didn't even want colonies to begin with and Italian ambitions were quite limited.

 

[pompejus]

The absence of Belgium has nothing to do with the Scramble not happening; nor does France having any lingering humiliation from the 7 years war. Again, "the rest of history is just railroaded?" There are several ways Germany could've united and the Franco-Prussian war was hardly destined to happen to trigger zealous French generals going crazy in West Africa that'd domino into the rest of Europe pouncing on Africa. Germany also didn't even want colonies to begin with and Italian ambitions were quite limited.

It is not impossible to avoid, but I believe it is significantly more likely to happen with a POD in 1830. That is only 50 years away from the scramble of Africa after all.

 

[OxSpace]

It is not impossible to avoid, but I believe it is significantly more likely to happen with a POD in 1830. That is only 50 years away from the scramble of Africa after all.

You're greatly underestimating how extremely unique the scramble was for otl. African colonialism was on the whole uneconomical and also preceded by some very specific socio-economic conditions. The amount of events that lined up perfectly and the sheer luck to some degree that propelled the Scramble is beyond unlikely to happen.

 

[DTF955Baseballfan]

Liechtenstein Congo seems interesting where after failing to buy Alaska they opted to get Congo

And where Liechtenstein does get Alaska in this collaborative TL, which still awaits people to fill in some gaps (we've got Van Gogh getting there in 1885/early 1886, Lenin being killed there in 1891, and gold discovered by a family fromt he Austro-Hungarian Empire in 1895 or so, plus a TR who is radicalized to support civil rights), we have Sweden getting the Congo and sort of letting it alone, except for the British and Portuguese each getting railways so they can connect their holdings, a neutral allowing others to work toward goals without exploiting it much itself due to lower population and not as much interest.

So, lots of thigns could happen.