Fastest Allied victory with a POD AFTER December 7, 1941

Very speculative. Any cross-Channel invasion is at least two years off, and the strategic situation may be radically different.
A lot of the defences only started being put up after Rommel's appointment in 1944. If Rommel isn't alive to be appointed, the defences are going to be far more lacklustre.

The Niihau incident was AFAIK irrelevant to the internment of Japanese-Americans in California five months later. The 10,000 or so Japanese who were actual security risks were all interned by the end of December. The later mass internment was the work of demagogic California politicians - some of whom at least were looking to steal the real estate and other property of the internees.
Hm, okay, some sources suggest it had an effect, some didn't. I retract that assertion. Regardless, an only lightly damaged Zero will tell a lot more about the aircraft's capabilities than studying a wreck.
 
I've seen an argument that Rommel changed the defensive philosophy from an "outpost line" at the water's edge to the "main line of resistance", and so moved the deployment within the infantry divisions closer to the coast. This changed the emphasis from disrupting the attackers after they landed to before they landed, hence all the anti-landing craft obstacles.

This is distinct from the argument about the correct deployment of the armoured corps.

Thats correct, there were two parts to this, Rommel instigated the change to a robust beach defense, but got a weak compromise for the armored reserve. But, others had been proposing the same thing. As resources became available to the port garrison commanders had been extending their defenses & installing strong beach defenses adjacent. The port defense of early 1943 were much more robust and extended than in early 1942 & even more so than in June 1941. Ultimately the decision to build a robust beach defense was Hitlers. That Rommel was still a favorite of his at the end of 1943 may have tipped the decision towards his proposal. Which leads to the question of how Ops NEPTUNE and OVERLORD play out if the beach defenses are still at 1943 levels & the old strategy of a interior battle still in place.
 
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MattII said:
So if Rommel isn't there, the defences in and around Normandy are considerably worse.

Very speculative. Any cross-Channel invasion is at least two years off, and the strategic situation may be radically different. ...

Rommel was commander of the Army Group in Northern Italy until October 1943, He did not become active in NW France until late November, starting his tour of the coast defense and writing recommendations after a few weeks rest back home. Most of the work Rommel instigated occurred from December 1943. The Atlantic wall the Allies defeated on the Normandy beaches was largely built in the previous six months. There had been local commanders attempting the same thing previously, bit it was Hitlers decision that opened the floodgate of Todt Organization labor, concrete, steel, weapons, and soldiers.

Its a credit to Allied intelligence that as early as January they caught the oncoming change. While not all the decisions of the Allied commanders for dealing with the new defenses under construction were correct, they were fairly well informed and were very active in looking for solutions. Up until Feb/March 1944 the beaches in Normandy were not much different in defense from those in Africa, Sicilly, or Italy. Defended by a outpost line backed by mobile counter attack forces. At some points, usually a town or port, there would be a strongly defended position, flanked by kilometers of light screening forces at the waters edge. By the end of March the new construction was congealing into a entirely different tactical problem. Many of the standard amphibious assault practices had to be discarded and alternative tactics adopted. ie: Assaulting at high tide was the preferred practice. In this case the dense beach obstacles on the Calvados beaches made that impractical & the commanders from 21 AG down to the rifle company had to think in terms of a low tide assault, where experience was less.
 

McPherson

Banned
The Niihau incident was AFAIK irrelevant to the internment of Japanese-Americans in California five months later. The 10,000 or so Japanese who were actual security risks were all interned by the end of December. The later mass internment was the work of demagogic California politicians - some of whom at least were looking to steal the real estate and other property of the internees.

And at which they succeeded.

(They also pushed for similar mass internment of Italian-Americans, because Italian-American fishermen held valuable docking rights in Pacific ports.This particular scam got blown up when it was noted that one of the internees was Joe DiMaggio's father.)

More likely the democrats needed the votes. Pacific coast politics in 1940s America (and in the American south. Well... Murphy... 'anywhere' you actually looked..) was "despicably racist" and the politicians were chicanes about it.

Thats correct, there were two parts to this, Rommel instigated the change to a robust beach defense, but got one a weak compromise for the armored reserve. But, others had been proposing the same thing. As resources became available to the port garrison commanders they had been extending their defenses & instilling strong beach defenses adjacent. The port defense of early 1943 were much more robust and extended than in early 1942 & even more so than in June 1941. Ultimately the decision to build a robust beach defense was Hitlers. That Rommel was still a favorite of his at the end of 1943 may have tipped the decision towards his proposal. Which leads to the question of how Ops NEPTUNE and OVERLORD play out if the beach defenses are still at 1943 levels & the old strategy of a interior battle still in place.

Split the baby, spill the bathwater. I don't think Rommel really changes the general trends all that much since the confusion is actually a split between OKH and OKW.
 
...
The Niihau incident was AFAIK irrelevant to the internment of Japanese-Americans in California five months later. The 10,000 or so Japanese who were actual security risks were all interned by the end of December. The later mass internment was the work of demagogic California politicians - some of whom at least were looking to steal the real estate and other property of the internees. ...

Which at least in the short run they were successful at. A down side to the internment was the loss of a noticeable portion of agricultural production in California. The Japanese who operated farms were skilled management and labor that were not replaced. Klein notes in his examination of US industrial mobilization 'Freedoms Forge', how the farms of the internees were under used as late as 1944 for lack of sufficient management and experienced labor. The farmers who took over management were spread to thin to cope.

This was connected to the underuse of Latin American & Afo-American labor in US industry & in the military. How many weeks would have been clipped off the war had that particular inefficiency been wrung out of the system by 1942.
 
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McPherson

Banned
Its a credit to Allied intelligence that as early as January they caught the oncoming change. While not all the decisions of the Allied commanders for dealing with the new defenses under construction were correct, they were fairly well informed and were very active in looking for solutions. Up until Feb/March 1944 the beaches in Normandy were not much different in defense from those in Africa, Sicilly, or Italy. Defended by a outpost line backed by mobile counter attack forces. At some points, usually a town or port, there would be a strongly defended position, flanked by kilometers of light screening forces at the waters edge. By the end of March the new construction was congealing into a entirely different tactical problem. Many of the standard amphibious assault practices had to be discarded and alternative tactics adopted. ie: Assaulting at high tide was the preferred practice. In this case the dense beach obstacles on the Calvados beaches made that impractical & the commanders from 21 AG down to the rifle company had to think in terms of a low tide assault, where experience was less.

That 300-800 or so additional meters of low flotation essentially wet sand was COSTLY in time. We've discussed equipment bogging, insufficient sappers to clear obstacles and open killing zones (That's 3-5 minutes running across open ground covered by MGs and mortars. The unintended effects of pile up of men and supplies at the waters edge and the subsequent decision to link the landing sites up, taking 3 days to accomplish, instead of exploiting to key terrain beyond the red line immediately may have given German forces behind the defenses the time to set up and defend in their own front, behind that "hard crust" of defense. Anzio redux IOW.

Place your bets and make your choice. Who knows if pushing through forward faster or landing at high tide would have been initially costlier, but subsequently quicker and more fruitful? So many Wally things went wrong on D-Day that if they had gone as planned might make the questions moot.
 
...
Place your bets and make your choice. Who knows if pushing through forward faster or landing at high tide would have been initially costlier, but subsequently quicker and more fruitful? So many Wally things went wrong on D-Day that if they had gone as planned might make the questions moot.

The track record for the previous assaults on less defended beaches & a high tide assault was a lot less costly, in all respects.
 
Many of the standard amphibious assault practices had to be discarded and alternative tactics adopted. ie: Assaulting at high tide was the preferred practice.

Given the Mediterranean is effectively tideless, I'm not sure about a preferred practice. A bigger difference was the switch to daylight landings to use heavy bombers and naval bombardment.
 
Naval bombardment was about equally effective at night. Generally with preparation fires you are attacking suspected targets the intel people think are good. Once you get a good navigation fix accuracy is similar. Theres a difference between day and night with spotting teams ashore, but the accuracy is the same once the team identifies a target. Daylight or bright moonlight make it easier, but once you get a navigation fix on a landmark the rest is gunnery. For air support its a different story. Radar bombing was not well enough understood, & they screwed it up in a major way on OMAHA beach. In hindsight they'd had less risk using the heavy bombers suppressing artillery and assembly areas or supply depots inland.
 
Pro-Allied changes immediately after Pearl Harbor:

  • Pacific: USN lookout on an escort destroyer spots IJN submarine I-6 crash-diving; TF 14 alters course, so I-6 does not torpedo USS Saratoga (1/11/42). The US has an additional carrier during the next five months. This leads to decisive US victories at Coral Sea and (as OTL) at Midway. Later battles "snowball" in the USN's favor; by the end of 1942, the IJN has lost eight carriers (two more than OTL), while the US has lost three (one fewer then OTL).
OR USA loses Saratoga at Coral Sea or Midway with Japanese losing the same amount of ships
 
More likely the democrats needed the votes.
California politics at this time was dominated by Republicans (including former Progressives like Senator Hiram Johnson). Then-Governor Culbert Olson was the only Democrat from 1898 to 1958. Republican State Attorney General (and future Governor) Earl Warren was a notoriuos advocate on internment (and confiscation of Japanese-Americans' property). It was a bipartisan scam.
 
Have the US Navy find and fix its torpedo problems in 1940. A live fire test intended to impress VIPs in an attempt to obtain more funding would have been very embarrassing but it would have brought an attention to the problem.
That would have sped up the Japanese home Islands shortage of everything and Porsche the Imperial Japanese Navy into performing hopeless offensive actions out of sheer desperation. That would have led to the destruction of the Japanese Fleet earlier and sped up the conquest of the Pacific by Allied Forces
 
IMHO - to make a meaningful difference in terms of Germany's defeat, you need a '43 invasion.
What needs to happen to make that possible:
- Battle of Atlantic needs to be won earlier - earlier Escort Carriers and/or LRMPA,
- earlier success in the Desert, with also earlier Torch (brings France back in - otherwise French Forces in NWA sit out the war),
- earlier, better British tanks - though having said that Comet/Black Prince feasible summer '44, but '43 would be very hard going!!
- quicker US decision making over what next after North Africa secure,
- if any landings on the Italian mainland unless little resistance Foggia airfields main target, and security zone.
- aim for near simultaneous landings on Normandy and South of France - anytime between June & August 1943.
- other problems - will the Allies have good enough 'Air Superiority'? Or is Air Supremacy' possible?
 
This was done with ALL the recovered enemy wreckage from Pearl Harbor, including a dud Japanese torpedo fired presumably from one of their mini-subs. It is one of the greatest WW II technological mysteries of the war why the technical intelligence gleaned failed to make it to the tactical forces who needed that information.
Someone in charge clearly never understood the Intelligence Cycle. The whole process is irrelevant without Dissemination. However. No matter how good the Intelligence folk may be, it relies upon the users taking notice of the briefings. One of the less obvious roles of Intelligence is to make the tactical people lift their noses off their local maps and look around to see the wider picture and notice what the enemy are doing not just themselves. To be fair it can be hard enough to keep a grip on your own folk never mind the hirsute bottomed enemy as well. I recall in my early days being told that all you can do is tell it as it is. It is up to the commanders to make the decisions. All you can do is cry into your tea over the consequences. An Intelligence briefing, no matter how formulaic, has an element of a sales pitch. Poor commanders manoeuvre their own troops. Good commanders manoeuvre the enemy troops.
 
This was done with ALL the recovered enemy wreckage from Pearl Harbor, including a dud Japanese torpedo fired presumably from one of their mini-subs. It is one of the greatest WW II technological mysteries of the war why the technical intelligence gleaned failed to make it to the tactical forces who needed that information.

Not really, especially in this case.

https://www.realcleardefense.com/ar...e_torpedo_scandal_of_world_war_ii_113037.html

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/b...-war-ii-weapon-mark-14-torpedo-44747?page=0,1
 
.... Poor commanders manoeuvre their own troops. Good commanders manoeuvre the enemy troops.

The connection with the Battle of the Atlantic has been the subject of the bulk of the historical writing about the Engima decrypts and the ULTRA system. I suspect the most profound effect was the use of ULTRA decrypts by the Deception Committee, the group that ran the bulk of the Brit/US deception ops. Specifically they examined decrypts of the material between the senior German commands for clues about the effects of their efforts. A feedback loop was created allowing the commanders or managers of the assorted deception ops, particualry the Double Cross system than so ensnared Hitlers attention. Combined with evaluations and advice from psychologists he deception ops were continually refined to manipulate Hitler and his senior commanders into dispersing the defense of western Europe.
 
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McPherson

Banned
Unpack the moving van.

The track record for the previous assaults on less defended beaches & a high tide assault was a lot less costly, in all respects.

This was a combination of defender inexperience and uncertainty in the Mediterranean. Also weather effects. The similarity between Salerno and Omaha has been commented on frequently, so it may also depend on defender quality at the chosen landing site as well as weather.

Given the Mediterranean is effectively tideless, I'm not sure about a preferred practice. A bigger difference was the switch to daylight landings to use heavy bombers and naval bombardment.

Given the expected chaos of huge multi-beach landings, troops need to see. (UTAH they missed by 1400 meters.) so daylight is a late war necessity.

Naval bombardment was about equally effective at night. Generally with preparation fires you are attacking suspected targets the intel people think are good. Once you get a good navigation fix accuracy is similar. Theres a difference between day and night with spotting teams ashore, but the accuracy is the same once the team identifies a target. Daylight or bright moonlight make it easier, but once you get a navigation fix on a landmark the rest is gunnery. For air support its a different story. Radar bombing was not well enough understood, & they screwed it up in a major way on OMAHA beach. In hindsight they'd had less risk using the heavy bombers suppressing artillery and assembly areas or supply depots inland.

Depends on the platform characteristics and THE COMPUTER. US gunnery will be more accurately computed than UK, but inherent shell drift and dispersion from naval US gun salvoes was a huge problem the RN had much less to correct. This obviated USN advantages out. Slight edge RN, unless it was really close and almost direct fire. Then you were a dead defender.

California politics at this time was dominated by Republicans (including former Progressives like Senator Hiram Johnson). Then-Governor Culbert Olson was the only Democrat from 1898 to 1958. Republican State Attorney General (and future Governor) Earl Warren was a notoriuos advocate on internment (and confiscation of Japanese-Americans' property). It was a bipartisan scam.

For 1941...



House seats by party holding plurality in state
80+% to 100% Democratic dark blue
80+% to 100% Republican dark red
60+% to 80% Democratic medium blue
60+% to 80% Republican medium red
Up to 60% Democratic light blue
Up to 60% Republican light red

Blue (light or dark) is democrat, Red (light or dark) is republican, striped is 50/50. Source is data on 76th US Congress. Found here.

IMHO - to make a meaningful difference in terms of Germany's defeat, you need a '43 invasion.
What needs to happen to make that possible:
- Battle of Atlantic needs to be won earlier - earlier Escort Carriers and/or LRMPA,
- earlier success in the Desert, with also earlier Torch (brings France back in - otherwise French Forces in NWA sit out the war),
- earlier, better British tanks - though having said that Comet/Black Prince feasible summer '44, but '43 would be very hard going!!
- quicker US decision making over what next after North Africa secure,
- if any landings on the Italian mainland unless little resistance Foggia airfields main target, and security zone.
- aim for near simultaneous landings on Normandy and South of France - anytime between June & August 1943.
- other problems - will the Allies have good enough 'Air Superiority'? Or is Air Supremacy' possible?

a. That depends on a pre-war RN that knows what it is doing. Otherwise you are stuck with the RTL mid 1943 outcome.
b. Never going to happen with Churchill.
c. Possible, but IGS needs to be reshuffled in 1938. And DTOE or whatever its British equivalent is needs to be restructured from COL on up. Or else the Americans in 1934 get Christie to quit farting around and adopt the M1932 and turn it into the American version BT-5 complete with 6 pounder or US equivalent.
d. Get rid of Churchill and go for Sicily immediately.
e. Naples and Sardinia. Fire Montgomery if he screws up like he did during Haystack, to chastise him and then bring him back when he gets "the message". Fire Clark IMMEDIATELY and put in Hodges.
f. Not enough sealift. More emphasis on topology, combat engineers, and "Funnies", better CAS and FIRE BRADLEY. Replace with Devers.

Someone in charge clearly never understood the Intelligence Cycle. The whole process is irrelevant without Dissemination. However. No matter how good the Intelligence folk may be, it relies upon the users taking notice of the briefings. One of the less obvious roles of Intelligence is to make the tactical people lift their noses off their local maps and look around to see the wider picture and notice what the enemy are doing not just themselves. To be fair it can be hard enough to keep a grip on your own folk never mind the hirsute bottomed enemy as well. I recall in my early days being told that all you can do is tell it as it is. It is up to the commanders to make the decisions. All you can do is cry into your tea over the consequences. An Intelligence briefing, no matter how formulaic, has an element of a sales pitch. Poor commanders manoeuvre their own troops. Good commanders manoeuvre the enemy troops.

Sun Tzu.


For one thing, by now, I am something of a Mark XIV (I know it is Mark 14 in the modern literature, but in the 1930s, it was Mark XIV) EXPERT, so your citations are interesting examples of how "known facts" are wrong.

1. The Mark Mark 6 influence feature of the Mark V exploder had a settable rheostat in the prototype that would have allowed setting sensitivity to local conditions. THIS was tested in the shakedown cruise of the USS Indianapolis and it was found to be "somewhat effective" for the KNOWN longitude variances in the Earth's magnetic field. the feature was deleted as unnecessary and complex over LTCDR Ralph Chrisitie's objections to save money "because test results indicated an additional failure path that would not justify the added expense and complexity in the exploder".
2. The reason that Japanese propellers (not engines---PROPELLERS (duralumin alloy unknown to the Americans, Japanese invented and not duplicated until mid 1943) were chopped up and milled in Pearl Harbor machine shops, was because the lightweight pins so milled were not as heavy and were STIFFER that the STEEL pins used in the torpedo firing mechanism which was set SIDEWAYS to the direction of Mark XIV torpedo travel instead of inline like German, and Italian percussion triggers.
3. Torpedo warhead weight was properly calibrated to the new filler weights. What caused the depth error, was the placing of the hydrostatic valve flow sensor IN THE WRONG LOCATION (aft power unit) as in the previous Mark X rather than midbody as it should have been. There was a Bernoulli effect pressure drop that caused the torpedo to sine wave as its pendulum steer control oscillated back and forth rocking the torpedo. This was discovered in the MARK X late 1942 and it was Bu-Ord realized belatedly that the MARK XIV and her sisters had the same problem. That took a half year to fix.
4. Tail control was bang-bang and this produced circle runs. Never properly fixed as it would have made the torpedo too long to fit the tube.
5. Same for Einstein impact bumper. Make the torpedo too long.
6. Quick fix was an inertia hammer arm electrical detonator circuit added to the exploder. It did NOT work.
7. Final fault? (Also never properly fixed.) the inspection ports in the power unit leaked into the depth control and the gyro direction modules.
8. Postwar a whole new guidance (artificial horizon) power unit and warhead front end had to be designed and built for the surviving stocks of Mark 14s.

Anyway Zeros be damned the real prize was Armin Faber getting his North from his South mixed up over Devon/ Cornwall and mistaking the Severn for the Channel and landing his fully intact FW190 in Wales https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armin_Faber That has a massive impact in the design of allied planes.

The Kurt Tank power egg. First out of the box. Grumman. HELLCAT. Analog altimeter based fuel mix settings.

The connection with the Battle of the Atlantic has been the subject of the bulk of the historical writing about the Engima decrypts and the ULTRA system. I suspect the most profound effect was the use of ULTRA decrypts by the Deception Committee, the group that ran the bulk of the Brit/US deception ops. Specifically they examined decrypts of the material between the senior German commands for clues about the effects of their efforts. A feedback loop was created allowing the commanders or managers of the assorted deception ops, particualry the Double Cross system than so ensnared Hitlers attention. Combined with evaluations and advice from psychologists he deception ops were continually refined to manipulate Hitler and his senior commanders into dispersing the defense of western Europe.

Fortitude has already been mentioned, but long before Monty began relying on Ultra for some of his best work, there was this English magician who was hired to perform such legerdemain as hiding Alexandria from Italian and later German bombing raids. EW misdirects based on light shows, and other "tactical" gimmicks that predate El Alamein, such that one wonders WHY the Germans who must have learned something from these earlier British tricks; kept falling for such obvious deceptions as 1st USAG, the man who never was, and so forth.
 
Unpack the moving van.

For 1941...



Modern politics being a topic for other forums, the political mix and voting patterns of the US were very different in the 1940s. California was quite paranoid about the possibility of an invasion and took the opportunity to incarcerate/intern Japanese-Americans while confiscating their businesses. The recorded acts of collaboration across the entire spectrum could probably be counted on one hand, only one actually comes to my mind. Not our finest hour. But this makes the efforts of units like the 442nd all the more memorable.

For one thing, by now, I am something of a Mark XIV (I know it is Mark 14 in the modern literature, but in the 1930s, it was Mark XIV) EXPERT, so your citations are interesting examples of how "known facts" are wrong.

Protip: Self-appointment as an expert, especially without other evidence of such, might lead people to believe the contrary. Given your attention to detail, which I appreciate, let's keep going regardless.

1. The Mark Mark 6 influence feature of the Mark V exploder had a settable rheostat in the prototype that would have allowed setting sensitivity to local conditions. THIS was tested in the shakedown cruise of the USS Indianapolis and it was found to be "somewhat effective" for the KNOWN longitude variances in the Earth's magnetic field. the feature was deleted as unnecessary and complex over LTCDR Ralph Chrisitie's objections to save money "because test results indicated an additional failure path that would not justify the added expense and complexity in the exploder".

They out-cheaped themselves in initial testing. Granted, funding was not to be had in many cases, but as soon as wartime reports came in that the torpedoes were malfunctioning they should have been stripped, tested, retested, and investigated. Albert Einstein was asked to look at this very torpedo *and BuOrd ignored his findings*. There is ZERO reason these torpedoes should have been so problematic by the time of Midway, much less a year later.

2. The reason that Japanese propellers (not engines---PROPELLERS (duralumin alloy unknown to the Americans, Japanese invented and not duplicated until mid 1943) were chopped up and milled in Pearl Harbor machine shops, was because the lightweight pins so milled were not as heavy and were STIFFER that the STEEL pins used in the torpedo firing mechanism which was set SIDEWAYS to the direction of Mark XIV torpedo travel instead of inline like German, and Italian percussion triggers.

Actually you're thinking of 7075 aluminum alloy which was developed in secret in 1935, used in IJN aircraft production starting in 1940, and first mass produced by Alcoa in 1945. I believe it is still in use today as is a derivative known as 24S. It was also called 'extra-super duraluminum'. In terms of duralumin alloy, or 'Alclad' we knew about it before World War I and actually used in in the construction of several US military rigid airships. Germany was building heavier-than-air aircraft with it before the end of World War I.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/7075_aluminium_alloy
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Junkers_D.I
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duralumin

3. Torpedo warhead weight was properly calibrated to the new filler weights. What caused the depth error, was the placing of the hydrostatic valve flow sensor IN THE WRONG LOCATION (aft power unit) as in the previous Mark X rather than midbody as it should have been. There was a Bernoulli effect pressure drop that caused the torpedo to sine wave as its pendulum steer control oscillated back and forth rocking the torpedo. This was discovered in the MARK X late 1942 and it was Bu-Ord realized belatedly that the MARK XIV and her sisters had the same problem. That took a half year to fix.

And how many reports were sent back from BuOrd under Blandy that basically read, "They're just not handling the torpedoes right", before actually acknowledging the problem? How many ships kept sailing for Japan and how many US lives might have been saved had BuOrd listened earlier?

4. Tail control was bang-bang and this produced circle runs. Never properly fixed as it would have made the torpedo too long to fit the tube.
5. Same for Einstein impact bumper. Make the torpedo too long.
6. Quick fix was an inertia hammer arm electrical detonator circuit added to the exploder. It did NOT work.
7. Final fault? (Also never properly fixed.) the inspection ports in the power unit leaked into the depth control and the gyro direction modules.
8. Postwar a whole new guidance (artificial horizon) power unit and warhead front end had to be designed and built for the surviving stocks of Mark 14s.

Those surviving stocks seem to have been kept for testing or on the shelf in favor of Mark 16s and Mark 18s for very good reason. While both the Mark 14 and Mark 15 improved greatly after BuOrd began to actually acknowledge the problems, the reputation of the weapon seems to have been irreparably damaged, perhaps justifiably so. Thankfully we had other options by then.
 
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