Fastest Allied victory with a POD AFTER December 7, 1941

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: After 1900' started by Osorno13, Sep 26, 2019.

  1. Scott Washburn Well-Known Member

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    I was attempting to be humorous. :) But with Hitler out of the way, a negotiated peace would be possible. And with America in the war and the failure of Barbarossa, there would be a lot of German generals looking for a way to end the war they would realize they could no longer hope to win.
     
  2. Historyrookie Member

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    with such german disaster in the eastern front a lot of opportunities opens for the western allies, even witouth a sledgehammer in 43'. maybe a strategy of engaging everwhere in the med with eveything asap is sound.
     
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  3. Zincwarrior Well-Known Member

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    West:
    *Forget Italy. Invade France in 1943.

    Pacific:
    *Focus on island hopping. Ignore the Phillipines and Borneo. Well actually ignore everything MacArthur did.
    *Focus more on the submarine campaign and fix the torpedoes.
     
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  4. Cryhavoc101 Well-Known Member

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    An attack into Northern France would be better

    I am with the Americans on this one - with an improved situation in the BOA and elsewhere such as Saturn with bells on having taken place Germany will be hard pressed to absorb a major assault in France but will be obliged to make serious efforts to oppose it.

    As for Italy once they are out of the war - relegate it to a 2nd front to pin down German forces and allow the Med to be opened up.

    Invade Northern France and then once Established invade southern France as well!
     
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  5. Historyrookie Member

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    i do not think they would get that bold, even with big saturn succeding, and there are time constraints to organize such a big thing, but corsica and sardynnia before finishing tunnis could happen, and that makes allied position in the med excellent and german one terrible. a lot of people here sees this as advisable and possible otl and it would be more so in this one.
     
  6. seyak Active Member

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    If Japan manages to create the OTL defensive barrier in the Pacific, push the British to India and occupy Dutch East Indies it is difficult to accelerate the offensives made in OTL. But during the first ~6 months of the war right after this POD there are a lot of things that can go wrong for Japan.

    For example (not very detailed though):
    • Sub sightings and action by USS Ward lead proper alert in Pearl Harbor. 60 minutes of head start improves the AAA and possible even allows some CAP to be ready before Japanese planes arrive. The OTL losses may easily be doubled or tripled causing Kido Butai to concentrate in rebuilding its squadrons during the first months of war.
    • Instead of being sunk by aircraft Force Z engages IJN surface fleet led by Kongo and Haruna. PoW and Repulse may sink in this engagement, but may well take a part of the Japanese task force with them. Losing ships here causes IJN problems when facing ABDA forces in the DEI.
    • British perform better in Burma and manage to keep Rangoon.
    • USN is more aggressive in defending Wake (this is now easier due to added IJN aircraft losses). It may not be possible to keep the island in US hands during spring of 1942, but 2nd invasion could be repelled and Japan would need to concentrate its limited resources here instead of e.g. Tarawa and New Guinea in OTL.
    I could easily see the US arriving to Marianas and re-taking Philippines earlier than in OTL in this scenario.
     
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  7. starman Well-Known Member

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    The second happy time was early in '42 off the US east coast. Using more bombers for ASW might've won the battle for the North Atlantic in late '42 but most of the u-boat successes at the time--leading to record losses of tonnage--were in remote areas. Eisbar was an example.
     
  8. Naval Aviation Fan Active Member

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    Ok, I'll try my hand at this. I'm going to cheat a bit though, so warning right off the top, as it were.

    • Dec 7th, 1941 the Japanese attack as OTL
    • Dec 1941, US army troops garrison most of the major islands in the westernmost Aleutians islands, with especial attention paid to Attu and Kiska.
    • Dec 1941, Airbase construction the length of the Aleutians are immediately begun.
    • Dec 1941, US transfers 100 merchantmen to the Soviet Union, for exclusive use in Alaskan - Siberian supply route.
    • Dec 1941, US Congress approves an earlier and much larger Al Can highway.
    • Dec 1941, a massive investment in infrastructure commences, with Alaska - Aleutians being brought up to US heartland standards within 2 years.
    • Jan, 1942 to May 1942 go pretty much as OTL, but the major changes come in next month.
    • June, 1942, the Battle of Midway results is an even more crushingly huge defeat for the Japanese, because of the massive increased defenses in the north. The greatly enlarged and more battle worthy 11th air force, operating from the heretofore unsuspected airbases all along the Aleutians give a through bitch-slapping to the northern force, so the IJN in down 6 carriers rather than the 4 from OTL.
    • June 1942 to Dec 1942, the Guadalcanal campaign goes quite a bit better than OTL, due in no small part to the Japanese believing that a huge US buildup in the Aleutians is an obvious prelude to an invasion on Japan from the north. Perhaps they even initially think those landings a a ruse/faint, to draw their forces to the far southeast, when the REAL attack will then come the North.
    • Dec 7th, 1942, combined US/Soviet ground offensive commences, driving the Germans back.
    • Dec 7th, 1943, unable to stop, or even really slow down the US/Soviet armies, the Germans realize the writing is on the wall, so to speak, and begin seeking terms.
    The cheating is knowing that, historically, the Japanese will not be conducting an anti-commerce shipping campaign with their submarine fleet, and that as long as the USSR refuses to DoW Japan, they will not have their shipping being targeted at all, so unlike historical losses to the German U-Boats, pretty much everything sent to Europe historically actually makes its way to the USSR in TTL, the USA forms the 8th air force in the soviet union, not the UK, and Torch is replaced by those troops being sent the other way round.

    Ok, that's cheating, but removing the shipping losses to the U-Boats by not going to Europe/Africa, means those same ships can be better used on the longer (but far safer) northwestern route.

    Reasons:
    Fighting the Germans and the Japanese, and most shipping going to Europe/Africa needlessly offers that tonnage as targets for uboats while slowing down US buildup in one place. Fighting the Germans where they are weak, and out of supply is good, but going into Africa has our troops operating on their own. Operating alongside the battle hardened Red army, the US fights the Germans sooner, and there is no need to have a long range fighter escort for bomber missions over Germany, as the US/Soviet air forces go toe to toe with the Luftwaffe, and begin strangling the Wehrmacht by slaughtering German supply convoys, so their already poor supply situation only gets worse, faster and sooner than in OTL, and more and more trucks and horses get bombed and strafed, as more and more American troops & equipment continue to pour into Siberia and are delivered to the "Eastern Front" via a greatly improved TSR.

    You cannot really start fighting the Japanese, and by this I mean taking territory back from them, without the huge supply train that hasn't been built yet in 1941, but by going northwest, you eliminate most US losses to the uboats (you cannot just cutoff all supplies to the UK after all), and the US army in the USSR presumably can be supplied just as well if not better than Torch could be.

    The key to this is rapidly building airbases on Attu and Kiska islands, to the Japanese are not even able to attempt to hit the supplies heading to Anchorage/Nome, and from there, on USSR flagged ships, into Siberian ports/ trans-Siberian railway.

    Beating Germany means beating the German army, and showing them that their troops, deep within the USSR and at the end of an increasingly bad supply train, cannot hope to win, forces them to leave Africa on their own, as they cannot afford the troops/shipping/supplies committed to a sideshow.

    Breaking the German army earlier means breaking Germany sooner, and Germany suing for peace in early 1944, means everyone is going to be able to devote all their attention to the Japanese, so...

    Is this any good?
     
    Last edited: Sep 30, 2019
  9. Cryhavoc101 Well-Known Member

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    That's what I mean by no 2nd happy time

    Edit: there were no convoys or any air patrols of any kind on the Eastern Seaboard for some period of time.

    At one point USN DD crews tied up in a port could see Merchantmen being attacked out at sea!

    Make that get resolved a lot sooner or actually have a plan

    Granted the ability of U-boats to reach the Eastern Seaboard and Caribbean were not appreciated at the time but King was very slow to react.
     
    Last edited: Sep 30, 2019
  10. Scott Washburn Well-Known Member

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    Interesting ideas, but the big flaw in it is the fact that the US Army Air Force proved almost totally incapable of hitting Japanese ships with land based bombers.
     
  11. Dorknought Well-Known Member

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    The US relief mission to Wake succeeds and the IJN lose Hiryu and Soryu.
     
  12. Naval Aviation Fan Active Member

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    My thoughts are that, had the 11th air force gotten the attention it should have had pre-war, and with the same key personnel as historically, and without the navy guy that was assigned shortly before the battle, and who badly misused and wore out the historical planes and personnel of the 11th. Leave Erikson in charge, they guy who actually learned how to use army bombers to sink Japanese ships historically, and give him the time to break in and train up a proper force...
     
  13. Naval Aviation Fan Active Member

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    Here he is: Dude got transferred to a new command a month before the battle, didn't know the theater, didn't bother to learn why things did and didn't work in the Aleutians, and basically hid during the attack on Dutch Harbor.

    And HERE is the good guy I wanted to highlight.

     
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  14. Scott Washburn Well-Known Member

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    Yes, instead of scattering Enterprise, Lexington, and Saratoga all over the map, send them all to Wake.
     
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  15. Carl Schwamberger Well-Known Member

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    The article linked in that quote contradicts the statement in the quote about the early use of Skip Bombing. Which is correct?

    I know from elsewhere the Army Air corps was practicing extreme low level bombing in the 1920s, & the linked article refers to the Elgin Field tests of 1941-42.
     
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  16. Carl Schwamberger Well-Known Member

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    While the ships are moving that's correct. Even the earliest attacks on Rabaul got hits on stationary ships in the harbor.
     
  17. Naval Aviation Fan Active Member

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    Sorry, the thing that Eareckson did was to learn how to go in low, and he had delayed fuses added to his bombs, so that they could go in 'on the deck' instead of dropping from high altitude (which is what was being done all the time at first, and was indeed useless) so that the bombs detonation wouldn't take down the B-17's and B-24's dropping them.

    Eareckson was also the guy that got the P-38's their first kills of the war, IIRC, by sending a radar equipped bomber out to act as the 'eyes' for the fighters, and doing this, the fighters got 2 of 3 Japanese flying boats.

    He was an interesting individual, and an innovative thinker, and I really wish he had had 6 months to whip into shape a much enlarger 11th air force. With a proper training budget, and being allowed to actually drop live bombs, I have to wonder if he would have discovered low level bombing was the way to go, in time to achieve the success I gave him in my attempt to shorten the war.
     
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  18. Naval Aviation Fan Active Member

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    Last edited: Sep 30, 2019
  19. Derek Jackson Member

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    WI Stalin died and his successor works with Polish resistence
     
  20. ObssesedNuker Commander of 10 million men

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    "Big" Saturn has already been suggested, but I feel a earlier PoD with better odds of success would be Stalin not over-expanding the Soviet 1941/42 winter offensive in January and concentrates Soviet resources on the forces attacking Army Group Center instead of dispersing them across other parts of the front.
     
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