Fascist Mexico: The Carrasco Era

According to Wikipedia:

Nicolás Rodríguez Carrasco (Chihuahua, 1890 - Ciudad Juárez, 1940) was a Mexican general and fascist.
During the Mexican Revolution Rodríguez fought alongside Pancho Villa. He managed to become brigadeer general but deserted in 1918. After the revolution he moved to the right and joined several racist, antisemitic and antisinist organizations. In 1929 he supported the presidential campaign of José Vasconcelos. Vasconcelos lost the election, claimed it had been rigged, and had to flee the country but Rodríguez decided to stay and instead befriended Vasconcelos' enemy Plutarco Elías Calles, former president and at that moment strongman of Mexico.
Under protection of Calles Rodríguez founded the green shirts, though they were disbanded by president Abelardo L. Rodríguez in 1932. A year later he founded another fascist organization, the Gold shirts, which would become more successful than his previous one. The gold shirts opposed the new president Lázaro Cárdenas and his reforms, and demanded the immediate expulsion of all Jews and Chinese. After Calles' deportation in 1936 Rodríguez lost his protector and in August of the same year he was arrested and deported. Rodríguez moved to Texas joined by many of his gold shirts, and sought cooperation with American fascists like the Silver shirts of William Dudley Pelley.
In 1938 he attempted without success to attack Mexico from the border at Matamoros. After this failed attempt he was continiously monitored by the Mexican and American secret services, and therefore was not able to organize any new actions. He died in 1940.

So, WI Carrasco had managed to become President of Mexico in the 1930s? What would the impact of a fascist neighbor literally right next door have had on American foreign policy in the isolationist 1930's?

Other notable Mexican fascists:

Salvador Abascal (Carrasco's successor?)

A possible Mexican fascist flag:
5013732771_aca6c96d85.jpg
 
That could prove interesting indeed. It's not entirely inconceivable that it may have led to an unholy alliance between the internationalists and the America First crowd to get rid of the fascist menace on America's doorstep. (Imagine, if you would, a state visit to Mexico City by der Führer: those would be interesting pseudo-intellectual gymnastics to rationalize the Mexican populace as a whole as Aryans.) In turn, I could see a US-Mexican war in the late '30s / early '40s that likely would have ended with 1) some new US territory on the south side of the Rio Grande; 2) a rather heavily guarded border with no-nonsense military involved, and 3) oil interests in the US owning Mexican petroleum lock, stock, and barrel.

It would probably have meant a tense standoff with Japan in the Pacific for a number of years until Mexico had been dealt with, and not much more than lend-lease to Great Britain and the USSR against the European Axis. I'd bet that nuclear weapons would still have been developed in the US, safely behind front lines, but it's also not out of the question that the first mushroom cloud might have been in Germany rather than Japan. Long story short, the conflicts likely (IMO) would have lasted until perhaps 1947 or 1948.
 
I think Carrossco would be very scared of the US and build a large army. America would join WWII (they haven't invaded Mexico) ASAP, but they have to deal with Mexico and this would effect support for Britian and Russia. The Nazi's would devesate Russia (Britain has no army to be scared of and the US are dealing with Mexico). Britain would be on it's own and probably get to terms.
The result : NAZI-WANK!!!!!!!!!!!
 
I think the US would start building up its army earlier, possibly at the expense of some of the shipbuilding programs (the two-ocean navy looks less appealing when an enemy is next door). The US will probably join the war in 1939, invading Mexico. By 1941 Mexico is conquered (though by no means pacified), and the US has a MUCH better army than OTL. The Navy is slightly smaller (later start to shipbuilding, but higher priority and more resources from 1939 onwards). Japan attacks earlier in 1941, managing to get a little further than OTL at their high-water mark. Less lend-lease aid to Russia means a slightly higher water mark for Germany as well.

However, the US war industry has been started earlier, and much of the bad doctrine and poor equipment is discovered and corrected earlier. The US contributes much more to the war effort from 1942 onwards than OTL, with the result of an earlier Allied win.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
I'd recommend a Cristero victory in the Cristero war as a POD. That way you can establish a clerical fascist state that embraces something akin to synarchism.

Here's a link to a thread where the possible outcomes of a Cristero victory are laid out.
Jesús Degollado Guízar would probably be Mexico's caudillo (he might opt for a more Mexican title), but I'm sure Carrasco and his fascists will be a powerful force within the government and the military.

Nor do I think that the US would be immediately hostile to the Cristeros, or certainly not to the point of intervention since they'll probably be in control of the country by '31 or '32, and I can't see Hoover doing anything to stop them.
 
While it may be plausible that he could come to power, I doubt we'd see any military action. The power imbalance between Mexico and the USA was such that no one in Mexico would even begin to consider it.

I think you'd end up with a situation more like Franco's Spain - or Peron's Argentina - internal oppression, international isolation. No military build up beyond internal security/COIN. Minimal impact on the war.

Mike Turcotte
 

The Vulture

Banned
I'm with Mike on this one. The Mexicans will surely realize they have absolutely nothing to gain out of a war with their northern neighbor and focus on internal issues. A comparison to Franco or Vargas is not unreasonable.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
I'm with Mike on this one. The Mexicans will surely realize they have absolutely nothing to gain out of a war with their northern neighbor and focus on internal issues. A comparison to Franco or Vargas is not unreasonable.
Thirded. No Mexican government in its right mind would take on the United States. Not only does it serve no purpose, but logistics would be a nightmare and the manpower issue is massive--the population of Mexico in 1940 was a little less than 20 million.

I'd also agree with the idea that Mexico bears a close resemblance to Franco's Spain and Iron Guard Romania only with even heavier dashes of clerical fascism, especially if the POD is the Cristeros winning.

And whatever government arises is not going to massacre those of indian stock since they form too big a portion of the nation's population. That being said, I would be not at all surprised to see the government forcing indians to assimilate into mainstream Mexican culture; i.e. getting rid of certain cultural practices, repressing the speaking of Nahuatl and any languages other than Spanish.
 
I'm with Mike on this one. The Mexicans will surely realize they have absolutely nothing to gain out of a war with their northern neighbor and focus on internal issues. A comparison to Franco or Vargas is not unreasonable.

Sure, they'd prefer that, but will the US allow it? Spain and Argentina weren't right next door - Spain was on the other side of the ocean!

It was easy for the US to be isolationist when the perception was that everything happening was far away. It is rather harder when you share a land border. There were several nasty border incidents between the US and Mexico in OTL; hard to imagine things would go better in TTL.

Remember also that if you kick things off in 1931 the United Fruit Company might have a thing or two to say.
 
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