Fascist Italy in the Cold War

Imagine a scenario in which Italy remains neutral during (most of) WW2. Maybe Italo Balbo doesn't lose the Duce's ear and sides with the British, or maybe the tensions between Italy and Germany over the Anschluss of Austria are far greater than IOTL. It's possible that Italy remains neutral during WW2, or maybe it joins the war against Germany at the last moment, grabbing Austria as a satellite regime or something. Other than that, the war goes on as IOTL. What would that mean for Italy during the Cold War? How would it align itself?

First, I think this is a no-brainer - Italy tries developing nukes. Surrounded by corrupt democracies and degenerate communists, and considering Mussolini's personality, nuclear weapons will be a priority.

What's more interesting to me though is how Italy aligns itself throughout the war. Does it try forming an independent Fascist bloc against both the Warsaw Pact and NATO, and initiate a three-way cold war? Does it try to play the neutral role, avoiding the era's entanglements? Is it possible they align themselves with NATO (while probably still not fully joining it)?

In the event of a fascist bloc, I wonder who would possibly join such alliance, and also how tight would it be (as far as troop deployments in allied countries etc. are concerned) and what possible routes for expansion this bloc has. It's possible that, under the cover of war around it, Italy invades Yugoslavia and creates a Croatian Ustase puppet, that is one possible member. Greece maybe another one? With a powerful internal communist movement, and a regime that is often regarded as fascist (I'm assuming in a scenario where Italy remains neutral that Greece also remains neutral and survives the war), and perhaps with a military junta that rises to power sooner due to Italian intervention, and with no one else that can protect Greece and against Turkey and maybe Soviet encroachment, It sound like Greece might naturally ally with Italy. I suppose it also matters at what point Italy joins WW2 against Germany if it does, because maybe they'll be able to grab Bulgaria (the Bulgarian king was the Italian king's son-in-law, and Bulgaria was never really the most loyal ally to Germany, so a Bulgarian defection to Italy as soon as it joins the war seems likely) or maybe even Hungary (not sure about that last one. I suppose Horthy would prefer surrender to Italy than to the Soviets, but I really don't know). Spain is another candidate, though it might be more difficult to convince them to join, but it's a likely option considering historical and ideological ties between the two regimes, and also common interests (please correct me if you think Spain would either be very enthusiastic about an alliance with Italy or very unfavorable). That brings us to Portugal. IIRC it was a founding member of NATO, never was too close to other fascist regimes despite being fascist itself, and of course it was a historical ally of Britain. So it wouldn't consider joining Italy's alliance. HOWEVER, If Spain joins with Italy into a bloc that rivals NATO, then Portugal perhaps would think twice about joining NATO, leaving it neutral, which also opens it to Italian influence. In that case, I can see a scenario in which, during Portugal's colonial wars, while NATO and the USSR each back different African rebel groups, Italy decides to back Portugal in exchange for it joining this fascist bloc.

I can also somehow see Mussolini trying to play the kind of role that the non-aligned movement did IOTL, but I think that's less likely because Italian fascism probably wouldn't want to relegate Italy to the role of a peaceful undecided neutral, and would prefer a more leading active role.

Another big issue to take into account: Italy's colonies. IOTL much of the Ethiopian highlands were still controlled by local guerillas after the Italo-Ethiopian war. I can easily see Ethiopia developing into Italy's Vietnam, draining Italy's resources and harming its international status and prestige, and eventually its stability at home. I've mentioned in another thread that I can see a scenario like Portugal and the Carnation Revolution in Italy following continuous failures in Ethiopia. But maybe that would just serve to bring Italy closer to a country like Portugal, and strengthen its international status. But the colonies are going to be a massive drain internationally because they'll essentially block Italy's attempts to join in the game to influence third world nations. Control over Libya and Ethiopia would mean no influence can be achieved among Arab countries or the new African countries, as Italy's control over its colonies is going to become the biggest issue in those relationships. Perhaps that would mean that Italy joins France, Britain, and Israel in 1956 and goes to war with Egypt, to try and punish the Arab Nationalists for agitating in Libya and also of course to keep the Suez canal open so they could still control East Africa. Maybe that leads to Italy becoming Israel's ally (at least after the French embargo it and before the US becomes Israel's main ally)?

Other than that, I can see some possible routes for Italian influence in military dictatorships and conservative regimes in Latin America and South-East Asia, but not really full-fledged allies. Those are after all America's spheres of influence, and anyway the Italian have far less to offer those countries (but who knows, maybe some regimes would prefer Italian Fascism).

There are also some ramifications to surviving Italian fascism that I'm not sure how to consider. One big issue, Algeria: if neighboring Libya is succesfully turned into Italy's 'fourth shore' then maybe this could inspire the French to do the same in Algeria and turn it into France's fourth shore, or at least make them care less about the international ramifications of retaining a colony in Africa. If both Italy and France keep some of their colonies, maybe they can turn them into kinds of self-governing dominions as a compromise with the natives. No idea if that can actually succeed.

Overall, though, I don't think Italian fascism would fare too well if it survives the War. Other than the threats decolonization poses to the Italian Empire and its stability, I just don't think Italy can really compete with the USA and USSR on any level. It will try, but it would become clear after a while that it's the least of the superpowers, and people ITTL will probably look at Italy like a bit of a joke, like a kitten that puffs its fur so it seems bigger than it really is. Maybe it would be the third power that sends a man to space or something, but that's it. What I think would eventually happen, as I said before, is that due to colonial entanglements the population becomes disgruntled and there's some kind of revolt. Now, what happens after that is interesting. I can see a scenario in which the King and the army, like IOTL, just depose Mussolini and side with the West when they see how bad the situation becomes. In this case Italy mostly-peacefuly dissolves its attempted fascist-bloc and sides with the West, like IOTL (though with more lasting Italian influences in Africa and with a more authoritarian Italy further on from that). A more interesting scenario would be if there are revolts and revolution all over the empire and all of fascism dissolves in big, bloody, wars. That would mean that the Cold War turns from a three-way race to a two-way race, and the superpowers are now going to fight among each other over who gets the spoils. It would probably look a little bit like how it did when the USSR disintegrated IOTL, complete with fears of renegade nukes being smuggled to terrorist organization, but with the added risk of world war as the two remaining superpowers try to outmaneuver themselves in the ruins of the former Italian empire.
 
I could see the south american dictatorships and south africa drift to Italy's orbit. Greece,Yugoslavia,Bulgaria,Romania,Austria and Hungary are natural sphere of influence, or at least those who don't fall under communist influence. Italy would surly allie itself with Israel as they both fight Pan-Arabisem, and before he was allied with Hitler, Muselini was very supportive of the Zionist movement as he saw it as a tool against the British imperialism. Also I don't think that Ethiopia is an issue in a world were Italy never joined the Nazis, as no invasion of Ethiopia is probably a must for a pro west Italy.
 
I think you are forgetting a few things.

First off: If Italy does not join the War, you just gave one hell of a free hand to the Third Reich. No Balkan Campaign, no North Africa. All that time, supplies, and manpower going to Russia, and not having to save their asses nine times out of ten. There is a strong possibility of Germany winning the War, or it lasting much longer. Germany came close to winning at Stalingrad. With 100,000+ German troops not in North Africa, and the hundreds of aircraft, both fighters & bombers, and tanks...6th Army takes the city before the end of September?

The Allies would also be in a pain. No North Africa and no Italian Campaign will cost the allies a ton of much needed experience in both men, and tactics. What can they do? Norway? France 1943? (Neither would go very well for the Allied Powers.) And now they might have to face millions more Germans, free from the Eastern Front. On the flap side, you given the UK a ton of free up men for fighting the Japanese on the other side of the world. Could even save Singapore. (Or last out longer.)

Italy never had a realistic way of keeping Ethiopia long term. Better to just let them oo with maybe a Pro-Rome leadership. (Which won't last long.)

Libya is what can turn Italy into a power. Once all that oil is found, Italians,with others, will flock to Libya and settle there. (And become majority European/Italian.) Issue here is if/when the fascist government falls apart, the colonies will go for independent. A Libya with a large Italian/ European population can turn into a Rhodesia, and that won't end for anyone.

If Yugoslavia stay neutral, it would have good chances of it collapsing sooner. Many was dissatisfaction with the situation and more saw it as a Greater Serbia by the ruling class. If you check out the history before, the Kingdom was under a ton of internal and external pressure. The only reason why it lasting so long after WW2 was Tito as a strongman and the unity he created during the War. Once he was gone, it days was number. At best, you could stop the coup, letting stay in the Axis, but not fight, and then rush into the Allied Arms if/when possible. (Besides, any Italian Invasion of it...can't say it would go any better then OTL, maybe after Rome focus more on industry and development. (And you know, getting far better equipment, a officer corps that could lead, and not break at the smallest of battles, and a leadership with some of forethought.) Or just don't.

As for Allies, you could save Bulgaria if you stop the Red coup and keep the Red Army out of it. Maybe Romania if it can switch sides sooner too. Greece would have no choice if the Red Army is coming its way. Lot of the South American Nations was Fascist, or close to it with Pro-German Governments. So you could have Mussolini gain some pals across the sea.

What is important is all the Jews that can be saved now. Before the late 30s, there was no Race Laws, and Mussolini even like the Jews in Italy and Rome! Hitler bully Mussolini into pursuing antisemitic laws and policies. So in this, you have a place when a ton of Jews can flee to.

So, in total, the Blackshirts could rule all the way today if undergoing some liberalizing and keeping all that oil in Libya and have a nice little bloc, something like the Third World Bloc.
 
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On Africa colonialism, Italy and France would be in the same boat as their North African colonies were white settler colonies destined to be fully integrated into the core of the nation.

OTL France governed Algeria with the same status as home provinces, the issue was not colonial status but that non-whites didn't have citizenship rights.
 

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If they stay neutral then Italy gets rich off of Libyan oil, while they can settle it in a way to maintain an Italian majority population due to the oil that the French couldn't do in Algeria due to the size of the native population. Italian East Africa is a ticking time bomb for them for that reason.
Now in terms of Italy itself, it would probably get into NATO if it wanted or at very least end up like Franco's Spain.
 
An independent fascist bloc?
Nah, Italy is not a superpower, the don't have the strength to create and lead such a bloc and there aren't any other fascist countries to invite to to it (with the possible exception of Iberia).
Any right wing anti communist dictatorship will probably have friendly relations with Italy but fall firmly into the American camp unless they're nonaligned. What is is more likely in my opinion is that Italy stays neutral (while likely trying to independly develop nuclear weapons, I don't know if they would succeed) and becomes a leader in the nonaligned movement.
 
A positive outcome requires sensible leadership, which is itself a tall order.

But let's humour you: with neutrality in WW2 and an opportunistic mentality (that would fit OTL) I see fascist Italy separating Montenegro and Croatia from Yugoslavia, as long as no substantial border adjustments are demanded. Yes, bye-bye Dalmatia.

About Libya, it would be nice to know if oil was discovered much earlier than OTL. That would decide how forceful the will to keep it would have been. I mean, what happens if after securing the fourth shore sending the arabs down south and giving them autonomy, oil is discovered in the sandbox?

Ethiopia was a no-brainer to begin with. A resource-poor area already organised like a nation state. Bad PR and no gain. Making it a protectorate and becoming its main economic partner would have been the most reasonable course of action, but to Musso it was an important goal.
So, a more pragmatic successor would retreat to the coast which is largely desertic and perhaps keep Somalia. British Somaliland and French Djibouti could have been acquired TTL as prize to keep neutrality and be annexed to the above-mentioned Somalia.

Eritrea is another story. Without some serious demographic shift it will have to be cut loose.

So, for this hypothetical fascist bloc, best case scenario I can see is:

  • Italy + Libya + a chunk of deserted real estate in East Africa.
  • Croatia, Montenegro, Albania.
  • Perhaps Hungary if it's occupied at the end of the war.
  • Spain and Portugal with their colonies (which they won't keep for long)
  • Greece if Metaxas stays in power and he's not threatened with invasion.
  • Phalangist Lebanon? That would require some tinkering though.
A good relationship with Israel if helped during the war, but they would have their own agenda, so I wouldn't really count them in.

The main thing for this bloc would be to have a decent industry.
All in all we end up with an Italy that hadn't been ravaged by the war and with an intact industry that wasn't that big, though. Would it develop like in OTL without the Marshall plan and the know-how it included and with the bone-headed economic ideas of the fascists?
Croatia could contribute a bit, Hungary more, but how much of it was left standing? Spain was still licking its wounds from the civil war and all of its gold had been shipped to Moscow. In Portugal Salazar was obsessed with keeping the state account in the black, so no substantial investments.
Greece, Montenegro and Albania were largely rural.

So, if Italy manages not to suffer from the Dutch disease after the discovery of oil and instead reinvests wisely into development, perhaps we could be looking at a regional power. But will this coalition hold? Will the Americans, the British, the French or the Soviets interfere by creating unrest or enticing with more interesting offers into aligning otherwise?

I leave the word to anyone who feels qualified to answer.
 
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A positive outcome requires sensible leadership, which is itself a tall order.

I leave the word to anyone who feels qualified to answer.

Italy got it ass kick in Yugoslavia, with the Germans and Hungarians doing most of the work, and I am sure Greece would show up, and help Yugoslavia in kicking the Italians. And then they got their asses kick by Partisans, and will again.

I am sure the other powers would interfere in Italy's businesses and start up shit, be it in Libya, or Europe. America might see it as 'Better then a Red', but not too much support, and play both sides.
 
Italy got it ass kick in Yugoslavia, with the Germans and

I'm assuming this intervention starting at least in 1942 when some of the problems would have been ironed out, plus there was no ARMIR wasted in Russia or anything that was required to invade Tunisia and British Somaliland. And the premise being "sensible leadership".

Hungarians doing most of the work, and I am sure Greece would show up, and help Yugoslavia in kicking the Italians.

Why would they? They'd be allied to carve up Yugoslavia and obtain Banat and Macedonia, respectively.

And then they got their asses kick by Partisans, and will again.

There are no partisans TTL, remember? Just Croatian patriots fighting Belgrade to obtain independence. With some external help.
 
Italy objective/gain in case of neutrality in WW2 with a later enter against Germany when it's clear that they will lose will probably be:

- preferential treatment regarding Suez, cultural rights in Malta and the implementation of the Franco-italian treaty of 1935
- getting money from both side, using the merchant marine to move Wallies goods and being the middleman for Germany (within limits) and selling weapons to neutrals and everyone who ask.
- making inroad in the Spanish economy and trying to gain the max influence possible there; goin on with the plan of military modernization of Spain to get money and influence.
- being opportunistic in case of invasion of Jugoslavia by Germany, trying to get involved to gain what obtained OTL
- invade Austria and gain her as a puppet, doing the same with Jugoslavia if that nation ITTL is much more Axis aligned to justify the move
- try to gain concession from the neutral.

In a post-war situation, Italy can form a mini-block with his group of follower (Spain, Austria, maybe Greece and some balkan nation depending on how the war end); naturally it will be impossible for her to really compete with the Big Boys and despite the claim of independence by Mussolini and heir it will become an appendix of the western block, only with more independence and a little embarassing (basically a fascist France).
Libya will become too italian and economically important to let her become independent and it's very probable that the situation will make France and Israel become pragmatically friendly with Rome; Ethiopia will become a big sore point with the endemic rebellion...frankly better let the place go.

Getting nuclear weapon will quickly become the number one priority as it's what make a Great power in this days.
 
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