Farthest possible extent of Mongol Empire into Europe?

Okay, I know that there's dozens of threads on this topic, but I just want it confirmed. You know the deal. Ogedei Khan doesn't die and continues his invasion. How far can he possibly get? And is there any way that previous failure in other campaigns could give the Mongols more soldiers to focus on Europe?

Edit: I am really horrible at this. Wrong subforum.
 
This is asked many times and generaly this is what most threads end in:

In theory the Mongols are skilled enough to conquer a large party of Europe and possibly reach the Atlantic Ocean, but and this is a big but it will probably cost too much for too little gain. Europe, especialy northern Europe, like Germany, is relatively poor, especialy compared to Southern Europe, the Middle East, China, Asia, etc, so there is little gain for the Mongols. Europe's terrain is heavily forested, which is a terrain for which Mongol tactics aren't terribly suited. Europe is fractured and has lots of castles and walled cities, which means a lot of sieges, incredibly slowing the Mongols down. So the Mongols must adapt and be prepared for a long, long battle. So since there is so little gain, they probably will leave Europe alone and look someplace else.
 
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You see, but I heard that they wouldn't be able to go into West Europe because of how populated it was. That they would be able to invade Poland and maybe Germany and attack the HRE (but not subdue).

Being able to reach the Atlantic? That doesn't sound right.
 

Deleted member 67076

They can probably take everything up to the Elbe if they wanted too, but they'd focus mostly on the richer south. Castles aren't really that much of a problem because the Mongols have guns, explosives, more advanced siege equipment, engineers, massive experience in seizing fortifications and aren't afraid to use biological warfare.

China was probably twice as populated as Europe at the time and they crushed it soon enough, no reason to see why Europe is so special.

Really, what the Mongols need to do is to subdue Hungary and base themselves there before continuing their campaigns onwards and conscript the people. That will give them a staging point into future and great pasture land for their horses as to launch raids all across Europe like the Magyars did centuries ago. Meanwhile, they could get reinforcements from the various steppe nomads in the Golden and Chagatai hordes to replenish their numbers as they launch calculated attacks across Europe and attempt to break the HRE and subdue Italy.
 
You see, but I heard that they wouldn't be able to go into West Europe because of how populated it was. That they would be able to invade Poland and maybe Germany and attack the HRE (but not subdue).

Being able to reach the Atlantic? That doesn't sound right.

Actually, being underpopulated is more likely. Mongols loved those big-arse cities, the loot inside them is worth besieging for, while smaller towns and forts are annoying and not worth looting but can't be easily bypassed either if in forest or mountain.
 
Meanwhile, they could get reinforcements from the various steppe nomads in the Golden and Chagatai hordes to replenish their numbers as they launch calculated attacks across Europe and attempt to break the HRE and subdue Italy.

If you butterfly away the OTL internal politics and increasing factionalization of the Mongols that led to decreasing cooperation between the hordes, they might.
The Chagatai horde, in particular, was subject to the unsettled transition in Karakorum after Ogedei's death.
 
I know that the Mongols were very tolerant of other religions, but I feel like Pope Gregory IX would eventually declare a Crusade if it looks like the Mongols have their eyes set on the HRE and Southern Europe in general. It doesn't seem like they would wait one by one as their neighbors fell.
 
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I know that the Mongols were very tolerant of other religions, but I feel like Pope Gregory IX would eventually declare a Crusade if it looks like the Mongols have their eyes set on the HRE and Southern Europe in general. It doesn't seem like they would wait one by one as their neighbors fell.

And at this time the Mongol Khan would ride into Italy, not unlike many other steppe nomads have done before, and behead him. It's fair to say that no crusader army would stand a chance against arguably the foremost military power of the millenia
 
And at this time the Mongol Khan would ride into Italy, not unlike many other steppe nomads have done before, and behead him. It's fair to say that no crusader army would stand a chance against arguably the foremost military power of the millenia

I dunno, the Hungarians defeated their tactics pretty well, like in the Battle of Mohi.
 
Yep. And a nevermind.

What would be necessary for domination of the southern kingdom? It can't just be Ogedei doesn't die, right?

Well, yes actually. The issue was that when Ogedei died, there was a dynastic crisis in which Batu Khan, the leader of the Golden Horde who was leading the invasion of Europe, has something to gain from. So he turned his army around and went East to stake his claim. Had Ogedei not died when he did, Batu would presumably continued his invasion.
 

Deleted member 67076

If you butterfly away the OTL internal politics and increasing factionalization of the Mongols that led to decreasing cooperation between the hordes, they might.
The Chagatai horde, in particular, was subject to the unsettled transition in Karakorum after Ogedei's death.
You'd really just need to delay the problems for 10-20 years at the most while the invasion picks up steam and the Mongols have enough time to entrench themselves west.
 
You'd really just need to delay the problems for 10-20 years at the most while the invasion picks up steam and the Mongols have enough time to entrench themselves west.

And they don't need that much time. Speaking of the Battle of Mohi, the Mongols were only a week or two's ride from the Rhine, and no one, not the French, Germans, or the Pope were prepared for a Mongolian invasion at the time. Paris, Rome, Cologne, and Vienna all look like prime targets for looting.

Not to mention Constantinople's fate.
 
Another interesting tidbit I should mention would be Pope Innocent IV's reaction. He likely would have been Pope while the Mongols were invading (coronated 1243). IOTL, he sent a letter asking the Mongols asking for conversion to Christianity so that he would stop his aggression in 1245. In 1246, Guyuk replied demanding submission from him and the other rulers of Europe. Obviously, he refused.

If we butterfly Ogedei's death and the invasion continues, how would these events have carried out? Innocent knew that the European armies would be no match for them and that they would be on their way. Might he actually surrender to the Mongols in exchange for allowing the Vatican to not face total annihilation?
 
And they don't need that much time. Speaking of the Battle of Mohi, the Mongols were only a week or two's ride from the Rhine, and no one, not the French, Germans, or the Pope were prepared for a Mongolian invasion at the time. Paris, Rome, Cologne, and Vienna all look like prime targets for looting.

Not to mention Constantinople's fate.

However, at this time, the Mongol tumens were stretched very thin. Beyond the initial goal of consolidating the Russian conquests, this, in effect, "reconnaisance-in-force" was by all of (by modern scholarship) 30,000 men spread from Croatia to the Oder. The Mongols (although they had some Chinese siege engineers in their train) were already having trouble reducing Croatian castles and strongpoints and beginning to lose engagements and ambushes in trying to totally subdue Hungary.

Also, Batu and Subutai's intention were to return with larger forces, not overrun all of Europe with his initial forces.
 
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