Fall Gelb without the Netherlands

Well here there is no breach of Dutch neutrality, no pretext to interfere with DOE, hence it Will be exactly like OTL.
And without hindsight and death defying heroism, the Dutch Will not go on the offensive. Back on track.
Okay with no invasion, than we will have war in 1941 when Japan begins to move, unless Germany is not so stupid to declare war against the Netherlands due their alliance with Japan, but than again Germany did a stupid thing in OTL when they declared war against the United States when Japan attacked them.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
Well, then :
France surrenders -> armisitce -> Japan takes "care" of french Indochine -> some trade agreements securing oil and rubber for Germany as well as Japan (propably the main share for the latter). That's all still 1940 late summer/early autumn.

IIRC at that time there were no "blockades" of Japan but "only" embargoes without military enforcement (yet).

Might such arrangements be able to draw Japan away from attacking Pearl harbour ?
They have French Indo-Chine as a further base against China (their main goal after all). They have a - relativly - reliable source of oil and rubber without the cost of occupation.

There would be a lot of at least diplomatic pressure, maybe even economical pressure from Britain towards the Netherlands and the DEI.
Would it cross the border to hindering formally neutral shipping ? ... to Japan as well as european Netherlands ? ... could the Netherlands "accept" their merchant ships being seized by the Brits ?
 
Pretty much nonsense IMHO.
The Manstein plan was NOT about a "pincer movement" but about the "Sichel-cut", if I might remind you.
And yes, Manstein had learned from Moltkes mistakes in exactly NOT to flank the french and wallies but to lure them into a mousetrap with the Ardenne advance as the bar to snap on their neck (what pretty well worked IOTL).
To lure them into this trap it should exactly look like a Schlieffen/Moltke-plan-redux. What it did to the allies, why they acted like they did IOTL. So ... with sparing the Netherlands it would look even more like a Moltke-redux. I don't see why ITTL they should react any different from IOTL.What overstreched front ?
If you might have a look at the wiki-site about the western campaign, you will see, that there were no french forces in the Netherlands.
Their front wiht the germans won't be any shorter or longer than OTL.

Therefore the claimed by you "benefits" for the wallies won't exist ITTL.
Point taken except for the overstretched front. If the Germans avoid the Netherlands, they're going towards the Dyle river. And they're going towards the Dyle river, they will meet the BEF and the best French units concentrated on a narrow front. I'm not saying the Germans will lose since there is still the Ardennes and Guderian but the German right flank will take heavier losses in the process, that's for sure.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
Point taken except for the overstretched front. If the Germans avoid the Netherlands, they're going towards the Dyle river. And they're going towards the Dyle river, they will meet the BEF and the best French units concentrated on a narrow front. I'm not saying the Germans will lose since there is still the Ardennes and Guderian but the German right flank will take heavier losses in the process, that's for sure.
The german 6th army would deploy after having crossed at Eben Emael the same way as 1st and 2nd army in WW I in going north towards Antwerpen.
After the first five, six days you have almost exactly the same front as OTL. Enough time for the BEF, french and belgians to run into the laid out trap, as they didi IOTL.
In WW I this move was part of the deployment plan. And such would be here the same, what means the "true" assault would begin after 6th army has taken positions in north-eastern Belgium.
 
Point taken except for the overstretched front. If the Germans avoid the Netherlands, they're going towards the Dyle river. And they're going towards the Dyle river, they will meet the BEF and the best French units concentrated on a narrow front. I'm not saying the Germans will lose since there is still the Ardennes and Guderian but the German right flank will take heavier losses in the process, that's for sure.
With no invasion of the Netherlands, Germany can use their Fallschirmjagers to be dropped behind the BEF and French armies.
 
The german 6th army would deploy after having crossed at Eben Emael the same way as 1st and 2nd army in WW I in going north towards Antwerpen.
After the first five, six days you have almost exactly the same front as OTL. Enough time for the BEF, french and belgians to run into the laid out trap, as they didi IOTL.
In WW I this move was part of the deployment plan. And such would be here the same, what means the "true" assault would begin after 6th army has taken positions in north-eastern Belgium.
which, in turn, gives more time to the French and BEF to deploy as well, btw.
 
With no invasion of the Netherlands, Germany can use their Fallschirmjagers to be dropped behind the BEF and French armies.
how many paratroopers btw? A few thousand at the very best and I'm being generous here. Light Infantry against a heavily mechanized formation like the BEF would end with heavy casualties.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
how many paratroopers btw? A few thousand at the very best and I'm being generous here. Light Infantry against a heavily mechanized formation like the BEF would end with heavy casualties.
That's why in 1940 german paras were used only at decisive, well defined points with their relief by regular troops short ot arrive (at least as planned for). Very different from what was done later by airborne troops.
 
how many paratroopers btw? A few thousand at the very best and I'm being generous here. Light Infantry against a heavily mechanized formation like the BEF would end with heavy casualties.
It was 3,000 that where dropped and suffers heavy losses during the OTL German invasion of the Netherlands, they might raid some of the Siegfried line bunkers maybe.
 
... into the trap.


However, thinking about it I wonder WHY the germans invaded the Netherlands at all.
Wiking will answer this better than me. We should "invoke" him
It was 3,000 that where dropped and suffers heavy losses during the OTL German invasion of the Netherlands, they might raid some of the Siegfried line bunkers maybe.
Not sure it would be a good idea. After their raid at Eben, the French would be aware of this kind of danger. If the German para launch raids BEFORE Eben, why not. But after, that could end badly...
 
Not sure it would be a good idea. After their raid at Eben, the French would be aware of this kind of danger. If the German para launch raids BEFORE Eben, why not. But after, that could end badly...
That is a good explanation, at least if the Germans do not use their paratroopers they will not suffer so many losses in man and in transport planes as they did when the invaded the Netherlands in OTL.
 
Point taken except for the overstretched front. If the Germans avoid the Netherlands, they're going towards the Dyle river. And they're going towards the Dyle river, they will meet the BEF and the best French units concentrated on a narrow front. I'm not saying the Germans will lose since there is still the Ardennes and Guderian but the German right flank will take heavier losses in the process, that's for sure.
I agree here in principle, but after the sickle-cut (assumed to work) the BEF and French are retreating or soon going to. Its not like they Will be bagning their heads against the wall.
 
I agree here in principle, but after the sickle-cut (assumed to work) the BEF and French are retreating or soon going to. Its not like they Will be bagning their heads against the wall.
Well... with the Netherlands route cut, they might try to anchor their defences on Antwerp rather than run away in panic. Not guaranteed to work, but compared to the hasty retreat from Dunkirk it's a decent plan, which allows the BEF-Belgian-French troops to play anvil if ever the French manage to deploy a hammer.

Granted, this was tried in WW1 and failed, but the BEF and French are deploying far more strongly to support the Belgians.
 
Refering to Ernst Mays 'Strange Victory': In January 1940 Halders staff returned to the idea of not invading Dutch territory. The Luftwaffe leaders stated they needed the Dutch airfields to attack England. The proposal was dropped. (not a quote)

This is a interesting passage. On digging a bit deeper I found hints there was a lack of confidence among the air force leaders in the Sickle Cut plan. They wanted to assure a clear line of flight to the British Isles, so the bombers would not overfly enemy controlled territory if, as many thought, the plan failed.
 
btw the Mechelen incident supports my idea that the Dutch would attack in a preemptive strike when Germany invades Belgium and not The Netherlands. They might not believe the Germans would honor their neutrality. In the eyes of the Netherlands keeping out of the war was impossible by then.

Of course in this timeline its possible there was no Mechelen incident.

However, thinking about it I wonder WHY the germans invaded the Netherlands at all.

It was a diversion, considderd neccesary to avoid reinforcement of "fortress Holland" and the airfields were needed for the future battle of britain. 3 reasons why The Netherlands were involved.
 
Refering to Ernst Mays 'Strange Victory': In January 1940 Halders staff returned to the idea of not invading Dutch territory. The Luftwaffe leaders stated they needed the Dutch airfields to attack England. The proposal was dropped. (not a quote)

This is a interesting passage. On digging a bit deeper I found hints there was a lack of confidence among the air force leaders in the Sickle Cut plan. They wanted to assure a clear line of flight to the British Isles, so the bombers would not overfly enemy controlled territory if, as many thought, the plan failed.

Yes, this makes sense
btw the Mechelen incident supports my idea that the Dutch would attack in a preemptive strike when Germany invades Belgium and not The Netherlands. They might not believe the Germans would honor their neutrality. In the eyes of the Netherlands keeping out of the war was impossible by then.

Of course in this timeline its possible there was no Mechelen incident.



It was a diversion, considderd neccesary to avoid reinforcement of "fortress Holland" and the airfields were needed for the future battle of britain. 3 reasons why The Netherlands were involved.
3 good reasons from OTL. So, no really good isolated battle of France reason though.
But, For the POD to work, the Germans have to believe the sickle-cut Will work or realize they lose anyway if it doesn't.
BTW, ITTL the Mechelen incident might show the Germans not invading the Netherlands.
 
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