Lets say the French army is able to hold Sedan for 24 hours, or after crossing the Meuse the German panzers temporarily halt to allow their infantry to catch up, or that Gamelin's proposed counter-attack isn't postponed by Weygand for two days - I'm not really asking about precisely how Fall Gelb does go wrong but lets just say althouth the Germans are not defeated on the battlefield it fails in its main aim to cut off and surround the Anglo-French forces in Belgium, and the BEF, French First Army Group and remnants of the Belgian Army are able to retreat south and that by late June the allied forces have regrouped to hold a line north of Paris approximately along the Somme river (more or less where the OTL 'Weygand Line' was intended to be. Lets say the Wehrmacht are short of fuel, vehicle spares and above all ammunition and are unable to launch a further offensive to capture Paris. The Germans have occupied the Netherlands, Belgium and part of northern France, and in July 1940 the situation is looking very similar to September 1914.
Thats the set up, here are the questions:
1. The Escaut/Dyle Plan will have failed, Gamelin and Georges will inevitably be sacked. Firstly who is likely to take over as C in C of the French Army? Weygand was Reynaud's only realistic choice in the panicked atmosphere of OTL late May 1940, but at a time when the German offensive has stumbled would he really turn to a 73 yearold?
2. Looking through biographies of French commanders in 1939-40 what's remarkable is just how old they are, all 5-10 years older than most of their British counterparts (in 1940 Gort was 53, Alanbrooke 56, Ironside the oldest senior British General had just turned 60 whilst Gamelin was 67, Georges, Billotte and Pretelat 65). Presumably had France remained in the war longer some more junior Generals/Brigadiers would have risen through the ranks, who?
3. What happens to French military doctrine? It seems a bit far fetched that de Gaulle's quasi-blitzkrieg theories could be adopted, especially considering the 'sickle cut' in this scenario would have been far less successful than in OTL.
4. How much better equipped are the French armed forces by the summer of 1941 compared to May 1940?
5. How does this scenario effect French politics? Reynaud's government had a very tenuous majority in parliament, approved by a single vote margin. Would Reynaud be able to remain PM? If he were ousted who would be his plausible successor? If he's not ousted does he bring the socialists into the government forming a grand coalition similar to that formed in Britain on 10th May?
Thats the set up, here are the questions:
1. The Escaut/Dyle Plan will have failed, Gamelin and Georges will inevitably be sacked. Firstly who is likely to take over as C in C of the French Army? Weygand was Reynaud's only realistic choice in the panicked atmosphere of OTL late May 1940, but at a time when the German offensive has stumbled would he really turn to a 73 yearold?
2. Looking through biographies of French commanders in 1939-40 what's remarkable is just how old they are, all 5-10 years older than most of their British counterparts (in 1940 Gort was 53, Alanbrooke 56, Ironside the oldest senior British General had just turned 60 whilst Gamelin was 67, Georges, Billotte and Pretelat 65). Presumably had France remained in the war longer some more junior Generals/Brigadiers would have risen through the ranks, who?
3. What happens to French military doctrine? It seems a bit far fetched that de Gaulle's quasi-blitzkrieg theories could be adopted, especially considering the 'sickle cut' in this scenario would have been far less successful than in OTL.
4. How much better equipped are the French armed forces by the summer of 1941 compared to May 1940?
5. How does this scenario effect French politics? Reynaud's government had a very tenuous majority in parliament, approved by a single vote margin. Would Reynaud be able to remain PM? If he were ousted who would be his plausible successor? If he's not ousted does he bring the socialists into the government forming a grand coalition similar to that formed in Britain on 10th May?
Maybe he does it instead of the Winter War?
