Reading sandy woodward's memoirs, two interesting facts:
1. Having been repeatedly scouted by an argentine airforce 707, the task force came within seconds of shooting what they thought was it when it came back on it's 3rd or 4th visit.
Turns out however this time it was a Brazilian airliner flying rio to Durban.
2. In the belgrano incident, Woodward ordered conqueror to attack belgrano. He did so knowing he didn't have the authority and his order would be countermanded/ignored. He says he did this for two reasons: first to show the urgency of his request, and secondly so if the politicians agreed to sink her but wanted an excuse, they could blame him.
So let's have a POD:
The task force shoots down a Brazilian airliner by accident.
International outcry. The task force however continues to the Falklands.
The us refuses to come out openly on britain's side. Refuses to supply advanced sidewinders, since it would be embarrassing to have one shoot down an another airliner, etc.
News of this leaks to the press. Anti-Americanism is rife in the uk.
The war begins.
Black buck is delayed because us is not supplying fuel on ascension.
Woodward sees the approach of belgrano, and orders conqueror to sink her.
On John Notts advice, the order is countermanded (otl, Nott takes credit for not sinking the arg carrier, but that's another story). "Woodward is trigger happy" is the prevailing view in London. The Peruvian peace plan appears tobe still in play.
The args manage to Launch 10 sky hawks from their carrier. 6 are shot down on the way in, and 3 on the way back, but they manage to cripple invincible and put a temporary stop to flight ops on Hermes.
Meanwhile conqueror loses belgrano as the ship and her two escorts cross grand banks, where the water is shallow. They attack the task force with Exocets, before being sank themselves. The royal navy loses 1 frigate, and has 2 destroyers damaged... Plus
Invincible crippled, and sinking slowly. Possibly salvageable if the British remain in the area.
Plus... Fires on Hermes. Fires on take hours to bring under control. When that is done, Hermes speed is reduced to 10 knots by further damage.
The British task force eventually starts to slow withdraw eastwards. The hulk of invincible abandoned.
Anya realises it is the chance for naval glory, immediately super etendards are dispatched to the undamaged airfield at port Stanley. Just before dusk, they attack with all 5 of their air-launched Exocets. 1 is shot down. But Sheffield is hit and sunk. Hermes is hit by 3 Exocets, and sinks.