Falaise Pocket total Allied victory

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Deleted member 1487

What if the Allies had successfully managed to trap all German forces in the Falaise Pocket in August 1944 and successfully managed to prevent any significant number from escaping? Apparently Patton's 3rd army was ordered not to cross into the British 21st army territory, despite being able to, which left a gap that something like 50k Germans escaped through. Had he been allowed to move to close the gap as the pocket was shaping up the German army in France would effectively have been annihilated. What impact would that have had on the rest of the war? Could the war have ended sooner then?
 
I cant see it making much difference. After Falaise the main thing that stopped the Allies chasing the Germans back to the Rhine was lack of supplies not German defences.
 
I suspect that while a major consideration was the real threat of a Blue on Blue situation as well as the realisation that Patton for all his claims to the otherwise only had a handful of units to block the gap through which over a dozen German Divisions were attempting to flee through

My own analysis is that the senior allied commanders were 'content' to allow the Germans to run rather than risk a local defeat as not all of the US Divisions were the 3rd Armoured - some of them were the 90th Infantry - and the Canadians had been looking somewhat shaky due to heavy losses - as it was I think the biggest issue impacting the allies post Normandy was the supply issue not +/- 50k German troops (not sure how many of those where LOC troops rather than those from combat units - for example 12th SS Div escaped with just 10 tanks and 300 Infantry)

Also while some armour did escape not much of what did made it across the Seine due to lack of POL, Spares and organised maintenance units and interdiction.

You could argue that many of those troops did get reorganised in time to impact Market Garden - but what impact would a local defeat and several allied divisions mauled have done to the subsequent allied plans?
 

Deleted member 1487

I cant see it making much difference. After Falaise the main thing that stopped the Allies chasing the Germans back to the Rhine was lack of supplies not German defences.
The evacuated Germans were pretty critical to allowing the line to stabilize as the Allies had to pause during the retreat. It would seem the cadres that escaped were crucial to rebuilding a front line that stymied the Allies come Autumn.
 

Deleted member 1487

I suspect that while a major consideration was the real threat of a Blue on Blue situation as well as the realisation that Patton for all his claims to the otherwise only had a handful of units to block the gap through which over a dozen German Divisions were attempting to flee through

My own analysis is that the senior allied commanders were 'content' to allow the Germans to run rather than risk a local defeat as not all of the US Divisions were the 3rd Armoured - some of them were the 90th Infantry - and the Canadians had been looking somewhat shaky due to heavy losses - as it was I think the biggest issue impacting the allies post Normandy was the supply issue not +/- 50k German troops (not sure how many of those where LOC troops rather than those from combat units - for example 12th SS Div escaped with just 10 tanks and 300 Infantry)

Also while some armour did escape not much of what did made it across the Seine due to lack of POL, Spares and organised maintenance units and interdiction.

You could argue that many of those troops did get reorganised in time to impact Market Garden - but what impact would a local defeat and several allied divisions mauled have done to the subsequent allied plans?
Who would do the mauling though? The Germans were largely crumbling and Allied air power had shut down their supply by and large. I think the official line was to avoid Blue on Blue, but given the excellent Allied communications and their total command of their air allowing them to coordinate they should have been able to largely avoid any significant Blue on Blue. As it was the Germans were far more depleted than the Allied ones, so I'm not sure there was any significant risk of them mauling any Allied ones in a failed breakout attempt.

As to the historical escapees the Germans evacuated the cadres and command staff that enabled the Germans to rebuild well over a dozen divisions that went back into combat in Autumn and check the Allied advance for months. Finishing them off at Falaise would have meant effectively permanently eliminating well over a dozen divisions that were irreplaceable. IIRC only 1 German division was totally wiped out an unable to be reconstituted later. Doing that with with 15 divisions and their corps structures would have meant an unpatchable gap in the German line. As to whether it was combat troops that got out at that time there wasn't that much distinction between the Tail and the Tooth in German divisions because of how short on manpower they were.
 
Can you provide some unit details as I'm not sure you're correct about which units stalled the Allies in the autumn? For example IIRC it was new divisions and Panzer brigades that held the US advance, para units from Germany which blocked the British north of Antwerp, and 15th Army divisions, which were never in Normandy, which were critical in blocking Market Garden.

Also there has never been a clear explanation for the failure to close the Falaise pocket; it was more a fog of war issue than anything else, with the various commanders trying to juggle various priorities - just look at how spread out 3rd US Army was (roughly from Brest to the Seine).
 
Well getting that much more experienced German tropps out of the War is a good thing.

Now I do not think it would end the War right away. It would assist in the long run. As others have already said supply issues were the biggest hinderence to the Allies advances.
 

Deleted member 1487

Can you provide some unit details as I'm not sure you're correct about which units stalled the Allies in the autumn? For example IIRC it was new divisions and Panzer brigades that held the US advance, para units from Germany which blocked the British north of Antwerp, and 15th Army divisions, which were never in Normandy, which were critical in blocking Market Garden.

Also there has never been a clear explanation for the failure to close the Falaise pocket; it was more a fog of war issue than anything else, with the various commanders trying to juggle various priorities - just look at how spread out 3rd US Army was (roughly from Brest to the Seine).
I'll have to check into Ellis' "Brute Force" to check on his argument about that later when I have more time.
 
You need a few more books:).

Try

Weigley: Eisenhower's Lieutenants
Wilmot: The struggle for Europe

Or some of the biographies of key commanders.
 

Deleted member 1487

You need a few more books:).

Try

Weigley: Eisenhower's Lieutenants
Wilmot: The struggle for Europe

Or some of the biographies of key commanders.
That is just what I have at my disposal at the moment. Just a quick internet search turned up II SS Panzer Corps that was present at Falaise that then took part in Market Garden:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/II_SS_Panzer_Corps

Survivors of 7th army did participate in the fighting further south and helped reconstitute the line once logistics halted the American's rush. 5th Panzer army was also in Falaise and that became operational once against on September 9th.

https://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/USA/USA-E-Riviera/maps/USA-E-Riviera-12.jpg
This shows 7th army opposite the US 1st army by September 15th.
 

Deleted member 1487

There is also some indication too that had the remnants of the 5th Panzer army and 7th army not survived Falaise, even in their badly mauled state, the US forces, specifically 3rd Army, could have gone harder at the German 15th army and trapped the better part of them before they slipped back into Belgium and the Netherlands, which then combined with the losses of German divisions in Brittany would have meant the deletion of nearly 40 divisions from the German OOB. At worst maybe then 30-35 including the 15 engaged at Falaise. Its pretty hard seeing the German lines being able to reform after that even if the remnants of the 15th army and reinforcements were able to hold Antwerp. No 5th Panzer and no 7th army, as well as a weakened 15th army would mean the German lines would have way too many gaps to hold when Market Garden was launched.
 
7th Army is probably not a good example as the British captured their commander on 31st August:); markings on maps don't show the real strength of units.

As I said before, the bulk of the numbers that reformed the German lines were new units eg Volksgrenadier divisions at Metz, bolstered by the very weak remains of units from Normandy.
 

Deleted member 1487

7th Army is probably not a good example as the British captured their commander on 31st August:); markings on maps don't show the real strength of units.

As I said before, the bulk of the numbers that reformed the German lines were new units eg Volksgrenadier divisions at Metz, bolstered by the very weak remains of units from Normandy.
Sure, but even survivors of divisions from the 7th army and 5th Panzer were often amalgamated into 15th army units to bolster them in the coming fight at the Seine and beyond. It would seem 15th army would have been smashed up even worse had Falaise been finished properly and Market Garden would have gone quite differently as a result. The equipment could be somewhat replaced, the experienced manpower was a declining valuable commodity.


Edit:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/116th_Panzer_Division_(Wehrmacht)
Fought in October against US forces after Falaise.

17th SS division fought out of the Falaise Pocket and remained in action through August, but was also back in action in September 1944:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/17th_SS_Panzergrenadier_Division_Götz_von_Berlichingen#Retreat_to_Germany

Of course if the 9th and 10th SS divisions had been wiped out at Falaise they wouldn't have been there to fight off Market Garden.
 
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Well the most thorough thing to do if anyone had the resources and time is to draw up a list of which units that could have potentially been trapped in the pocket and then track their histories to see where they ended up, either as whole units or being merged with others, and what they did in the following months.
 

Deleted member 1487

Well the most thorough thing to do if anyone had the resources and time is to draw up a list of which units that could have potentially been trapped in the pocket and then track their histories to see where they ended up, either as whole units or being merged with others, and what they did in the following months.
I did have a list and from a random sample that I worked with some were involved in the fighting in August, but most were pushed back into Germany and took part in the fighting from October on, with a lot of them refitting and then fighting in the Battle of the Bulge, especially the SS Panzer divisions. The 9th and 10th SS Panzer divisions of course famously made a big difference in Market Garden, as they were refitting right where the British paras dropped. Had they been wiped out they wouldn't have been a factor there and Market Garden could have succeeded. Had that happened its likely the war would have ended in the winter of 1944-45.
 
Cadres help, but it's not like the Germans didn't have tons of experienced soldiers elsewhere to put into leadership/training roles. The bulk of the formations were "new" troops, even if they shared designations with units that had been almost destroyed in France; those would likely be raised regardless of the survival or lack there of of the escapees from the Falaise Pocket. It would be a hindrance to the Germans, but not a huge one (since the Allies will still be facing their supply crunch, and the Germans will thus still have time to rebuild/resupply).
 
Well the most thorough thing to do if anyone had the resources and time is to draw up a list of which units that could have potentially been trapped in the pocket and then track their histories to see where they ended up, either as whole units or being merged with others, and what they did in the following months.

One of the things you will find is that a number of escapees were swept up in the bag taken in the Great Swan, as the British put it, across France & Belgium. At the least 40,000 Germans were rounded up, perhaps as many as 60,000 not counting the stay behind port garrisons.
 
Here is a incomplete list from a sketch map in Hastings 'Overlord' It shows the units present inside the pocket from when it was formed circa 16 August to 21 August when it collapsed.

Starting from Mourteaux on the Dives River and reading counter clockwise around the 16 Aug perimeter:

85th ID Division. Looks like it was crushed by the Brit 4th Armored Div & the survivors pushed NE.

12SS. Between Morteux & Falaise.

21 Pz

89 ID

271 ID

277 ID. West bank of the Orne

276 ID

326 ID. At the Conde corner.

353 ID

243 ID (part)

84 ID

275 ID (part)

10SS/9SS (part). Both west of Brouze on 16 August

708 ID

9PzD, 1SS, 2PzD. Clustered together SE of Ecouche

116 PzD, 9PzD ( part). Argentan

2SS. Between Argentan & St Leonard.

17SS (part). East of St Leonard. Looks like it was pushed east to the Seine by the US 90 ID & was east of the St lamber & Mont St Ormel 'Gateposts' Canadians & Poles established.

The map shows the 9SS, 10SS counter attacking from the Seine River area on the 18th or 19th August.

Closing the pocket on the Argenten-Falaise road leave the 85 ID, 12SS, 2SS, 17SS outside.

If the entire lot is bagged thats 50,000 men/22 Div = 2273 average for each division.

It cannot assumed all, or even half the escapes were 'cadre' material.
 
If the entire lot is bagged thats 50,000 men/22 Div = 2273 average for each division.

It cannot assumed all, or even half the escapes were 'cadre' material.

That's 2273 per division 'slice' ie a significant proportion will be from non-divisional units eg bakeries:)
 
I'm searching my shelves for numbers of prisoners the Allies took that week, and over all losses by bother sides in the Normandy battle. 400,000+ lost for the Germans and well over 300,000 for the Allies. Not the scale of Verdun, but still large.
 
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