Failed Sealion - effects in the Pacific?

Dons flak jacket before proceeding to post further...

What happens to the war in the Pacific in the event of a failed SEELION? For sake of argument here is a tongue in cheek POD:

Shortly after the fall of France a badly off course RAF bomber jettisons it's payload over Berlin.
Adolf's car is caught by the blast but he escapes with only minor cuts and bruises.

Enraged that that British are trying to assassinate him and feeling that his survival is proof that he has been chosen by destiny, hes orders an invasion of Britain. Generals that protest are ignored, overruled or replaced.

August 1st 1940 SEELION is launched with the results we all know and love.

OK the above scenario is fairly ASB but I'm not really interested in weather the invasion would work, or could even have been launched.

I've seen thoughts on what would happen to North Africa and Barbarossa after this, but I want to know what the fall out would have been in the Far East.

Let's assume that the KM got really really lucky, sinking a cruiser and half a dozen destroyers.
Let's also assume that the oil embargo of Japan takes place.

Now that the RN doesn't have to spend so much effort on patrolling the Atlantic/North Sea/English
Channel, does Japan still go ahead with it's plans?

If so, how would Britain react without the fear of invasion?

Can Singapore be reinforced as intended and what are the consequences?
 
It depends on the KM forces that are lost on the attempt

Are any of the Twins lost? Heavy/Armoured Cruisers Lost?

The British tried to ensure that they had a realistic 2 to one advantage in capital ships + carriers in the home fleet to 'contain' the German Capital ships and at least match the older refitted Italian capital units

So at this stage Germany has 2 fast and Italy has 4 slower - meaning that Britain needs to keep 2 fast units (then limited to a choice of Hood/Repulse/Renown) + 2 heavier units (Nelson and Rodney) in British Waters and at least 4 units in the Med - which uses up most available hulls - given that of the 14 units then available some are escorting troop/important convoys or being refitted/repaired

Mark down or at least seriously mission kill Scharnhorst and Gneisenau and some of the Cruisers then this frees up 2 -4 heavy units for refitting / redeployment in late 1940/41

As for the German Army - obviously it would lose the entire first wave including the LW FJ units - so this may in the shorter term impact future specialist ops such as Crete this in turn frees up assets to stop rommel's thrust into Cyrenaica and so on and so forth. Although robbed of some of its specialised units the bulk of the Heer is largely untouched so I cannot see such a defeat as having a large impact on future OTL analogous ops ITTL

Luftwaffe losses - possibly slightly more compared to a BoB without Sealion - there would be a few days of Frantic air battles that would see higher than OTL losses on both side - dive bomber and transport aircraft units would have been particularly heavily hit during this time.

Operation Judgement might involve more carriers (freed from Force H and the Home fleet obligations) - HMS Ark Royal alone joining the op adds 30 odd TBDs and a dozen Dive bombers to act as flare bombers and increasing the numbers of torpedo carrying aircraft from I think its was 12 to at least 50 odd!

This might have a massive impact to the number of main fleet units being freed up!

So I cannot see events in Greece changing very much but I can see - British and Allied forces losing less personnel and far less heavy equipment due to Crete either not happening or going Britains way due to weaker FJ forces and fewer transport aircraft -this would probably save many of the RN losses during that battle although it's absence would rob us of one of my favorite quotes by Adm Cunningham ;)

In OTL losses in Greece, Crete and subsequently North Africa during Rommels Op Sonnenblume which made much of Wavells forces spreading themselves too thinly - probably equalled about 5 Divisions of Equipment (tanks guns transport stores ammo etc) - not to mention 10s of thousands of Men, killed wounded and captured.

Events in North Africa go more Britains way as a result - and this in turn frees up at least one more fully equipped division if not 2 or 3 - probably freeing up 6th and 7th AID and at least one Armoured Brigade to be returned to the East earlier than OTL.

The upshot for the RAF would be that with the threat of an Invasion effectively gone more units could be sent overseas including Spitfire Squadrons which OTL were jealously guarded by fighter command until 1942

Improved airpower over Malta and in North Africa could have a knock on effect as well - for example less need to provide heavy escorts to reinforce Malta (due to an earlier surge made possible by the loss of the Main italian heavy units during op Judgement) might see fewer losses to the RN

For example the 400 odd Spitfires and their pilots lost over France in fruitless 'Rhubarb' type patrols during 1941 could have done much good if used in Malta and North Africa instead!

These would replace the aircraft originally sent and a lot of those would instead filter down to the other regions such as Singapore/Malaya - the other upshot being heavier than OTL losses for the Axis Air force's and lower than OTL losses for the Allied Air Forces.

If the planets align - we might see 2+ Strike carriers, 1 older light carrier, 2 Modern Fast BBs 1 Refitted BB and 4 older BBs as well as 1 or more BCs with a Dozen modern Cruisers and 6 odd older ones and 2 dozen odd fleet DDs as an Eastern Fleet in time for a Japanese Declaration of war

The Army forces in Malaya might be reinforced earlier with 1 or more of the 6 and 7 AIDs, 18th Br Division and at least one tank brigade (7th?) - suddenly Op Matador is looking like a much more realistic proposition with some Veteran Formations and their experienced HQs.

Spitfire Squadrons 'prized' from Fighter command in 1941 instead of 42 deploying to Malta and North Africa allows more fighter Squadrons with Hurricanes / P40s (possible 5 more Squadrons - 100 aircraft?) to be based in Malaya.
 
Top