Failed People Power Revolution: Ideas and Discussion

Hello people! So this thread is about an alternate world where the People Power Revolution Fails. Before this, I made a thread about the Philippines collapsing into civil war after a botched Revolution, but we have agreed that civil war is very impossible, though we agreed somewhat on the idea that instead of a civil war it could just lead to Marcos gaining victory over the opposition.

With these in mind, what are your ideas? And how could this butterfly many events around the world?
 
In this period, Marcos was undeniably dying from lupus, although the state-controlled media continued to hide that fact; it's either Imelda Romualdez or Gen. Fabian Ver who would took over once his health worsened to the point that the media would never hide it.
 
So for one thing a different Warning to Evelio Javier during his assassination ("Run fast, Evelio!" instead of "Run, Evelio, Run!" So he still gets assassinated, but there would still be butterflies.

So maybe have the Marcos faction be more cautious and send a few paid people to the CBCP to talk with them and encourage the CBCP to become neutral in the matter (basically telling them that the Cory faction is also corrupt based on made-up stories of intimidation, threats, etc.). Cardinal Sin telling the people to go home and not being forced to retract his statement might remove church support for the opposition, or split the church.

The Marcos faction arresting the RAM in the early hours of Feb 22 disguised as defectors.

International: Animpetus for Hu Yaobang being discredited was that the students were emboldened by the OTL recent developments in the Philippines (People Power). Before that, Fang Lizhi vsited Princeton University and therefore became a pro-democracy movement. If this is butteflied away, what would be the effects on China and the world as a whole?

No Chernobyl, and more cautious Gorbachev and co. could lead to the USSR existing today.

Yugoslavia? What are your ideas?

Would you mind giving me free (money) sources about the years 1985-present? Sorry, I'm just a teenager and we don't use credit cards recklessly.

Edit: Fang Lizhi dying in a car crash might be a boon for Hu.
 
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When Marcos dies in a couple of years the AFP and technocrats will kick out Imelda and the family. She'd been fighting that futile battle since the mid-'70s. Civilian rule restored, dismantle the New Society and enact a new constitution.
 
The problem with trying to get the Church to sit this one out is that the Church and Marcos had, after a period of critical collaboration, started to deteriorate once again, not least over social issues. Remember, Marcos long had likened Cardinal Sin to Khomeini, and the two seemed always to be at daggers with each other. A post -assassination POD is unlikely to alter the dynamics that had been in place for the last 6 years, short of ASB.
 
When Marcos dies in a couple of years the AFP and technocrats will kick out Imelda and the family. She'd been fighting that futile battle since the mid-'70s. Civilian rule restored, dismantle the New Society and enact a new constitution.

Well, for a given value of "civilian rule". The military would probably be much more powerful than OTL, at the very least in a Turkish style deep state capacity (as it was OTL in the first post-revolution years till 1990).

Not to mention you have the issue of the diverging priorities of the technocrats/moderates like Virata or Ople against some of the more loyalist officers.

I don't think it would be democratic, just the same old dictatorship with a friendlier face and less of a stratocracy.

At least until the whole rotten edifice collapsed on its own weight economically. And whike it wouldn't be civil war, the violence would make Honasan's idiocies look like child's play.

Actually, there is one way that could save Marcos post assassination. Would make him very unpopular with Washington, but he could refuse to hold snap elections, instead holding them later in the year with the usual intimidation and shameless ballot stuffing. Cory ends up in her husband's former cell, driving her to insanity, and the regime gets a few more years.
 
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