Failed New Mexico's effect on Mexico

Let's assume that the 1680 Pueblo Revolt succeeds and in 1692 to 1696 reconquest doesn't succeed. I have a pretty good idea the effects it would have on the Pueblos, a more warlike society and possible migration to more defensible areas and a larger percentage of their population assimilated into the Navajo among others followed by possible cultural extinction simular to what happened to the Mound Builders.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pueblo_Revolt

But what would it mean for New Spain and Mexico. Would we have the Monterrey Trail rather than a Santa Fe Trail? Would the French move further west? No Texas?
 
Also, how would a Spanish non return effect both the fur trade (lots started to use Taos as a base) and the distribution of horses among the Plains Indians, for example, having fewer available horses for people like the Comanche to become who they become.
 
I have a pretty good idea the effects it would have on the Pueblos, a more warlike society and possible migration to more defensible areas and a larger percentage of their population assimilated into the Navajo
Could you expand on why the Pueblos, having broken free of the Spanish, would then join and be assimilated into another tribe?

As for horses, I would suspect that the effect would be minimal. they've already been introduced to the Indian culture and their herds would grow. Plus, the French would be pushing in from the west, bringing new horse access
 
It is my understanding that the reason for the current Texas-New Mexico boundary is the failure of the Texas Santa Fe Mission. If the Pueblos had driven out the Spanish, then Texas's Western boundary could be the Rio Grande.

"The Texan Santa Fe Expedition was a commercial and military expedition to secure the Republic of Texas's claims to parts of Northern New Mexico for Texas in 1841.[2][3] The expedition was unofficially initiated by the then President of Texas, Mirabeau B. Lamar, in an attempt to gain control over the lucrative Santa Fe Trail and further develop the trade links between Texas and New Mexico. The initiative was a major component of Lamar's ambitious plan to turn the fledgling republic into a continental power, which the President believed had to be achieved as quickly as possible to stave off the growing movement demanding the annexation of Texas to the United States. Lamar's administration had already started courting the New Mexicans, sending out a commissioner in 1840, and many Texans thought that they might be favorable to the idea of joining the Republic of Texas.

The expedition finally arrived in New Mexico in mid-September 1841. Several of their scouts were captured, including Capt. William G. Lewis. Having expected to be welcomed on their arrival, the expedition was surprised to be met by a detachment from the Mexican Army of about 1500 men sent out by the governor of New Mexico, Manuel Armijo. One of Armijo's relatives who spoke English, probably Manuel Chaves or Mariano Chaves, parleyed with the Texans, with Captain Lewis supporting his statements. Both said that Armijo would give the Texans safe conduct and an escort to the border, and Lewis swore to it "on his Masonic faith".[4] After the Texans' arduous journey, they were in no state to fight a force that outnumbered them so heavily, so they surrendered. The New Mexicans gave them some supplies."
 
Could you expand on why the Pueblos, having broken free of the Spanish, would then join and be assimilated into another tribe?

Their population had dropped from 100,000 plus in 1598 to around 12,000 in 1680. Part of why New Mexico post revolt held together. The Spanish needed Indian support to hold a Northern Outpost, and the Indians needed the Spanish to hold off Plains tribes and or Navajo/Apache.

However, not all Puebloans saw the Spanish as the preferable choice, and over 30 Navajo clans have Puebloan ancestry (a majority) even though they became assimilated. The only Pueblos who stayed independent post revolt and not assimilated were the Hopi, who had a very defensible position in the mesas of Arizona.

That is why I suspect they would either take more defensible positions (some, like Acoma had very defensible positions, others like Pecos and Taos, not so much).
 
It is my understanding that the reason for the current Texas-New Mexico boundary is the failure of the Texas Santa Fe Mission. If the Pueblos had driven out the Spanish, then Texas's Western boundary could be the Rio Grande.

"The Texan Santa Fe Expedition was a commercial and military expedition to secure the Republic of Texas's claims to parts of Northern New Mexico for Texas in 1841.[2][3] The expedition was unofficially initiated by the then President of Texas, Mirabeau B. Lamar, in an attempt to gain control over the lucrative Santa Fe Trail and further develop the trade links between Texas and New Mexico. The initiative was a major component of Lamar's ambitious plan to turn the fledgling republic into a continental power, which the President believed had to be achieved as quickly as possible to stave off the growing movement demanding the annexation of Texas to the United States. Lamar's administration had already started courting the New Mexicans, sending out a commissioner in 1840, and many Texans thought that they might be favorable to the idea of joining the Republic of Texas.

The expedition finally arrived in New Mexico in mid-September 1841. Several of their scouts were captured, including Capt. William G. Lewis. Having expected to be welcomed on their arrival, the expedition was surprised to be met by a detachment from the Mexican Army of about 1500 men sent out by the governor of New Mexico, Manuel Armijo. One of Armijo's relatives who spoke English, probably Manuel Chaves or Mariano Chaves, parleyed with the Texans, with Captain Lewis supporting his statements. Both said that Armijo would give the Texans safe conduct and an escort to the border, and Lewis swore to it "on his Masonic faith".[4] After the Texans' arduous journey, they were in no state to fight a force that outnumbered them so heavily, so they surrendered. The New Mexicans gave them some supplies."
150 years could bring up a lot of butterflies.
 

SwampTiger

Banned
If the Pueblo Revolt succeeded, there would be no Santa Fe. The French pushed west from Natchitoches to reach Santa Fe and the lucrative trade. Again, not happening without Santa Fe.
 
If the Pueblo Revolt succeeded, there would be no Santa Fe. The French pushed west from Natchitoches to reach Santa Fe and the lucrative trade. Again, not happening without Santa Fe.

Does that trade then go SW into Mexico, Say to El Paso or Monterey?
 

SwampTiger

Banned
The Spanish moved into Tejas to stop the French incursions OTL. This was primarily to protect Santa Fe. The Spanish also needed to define their borders to the east. The Spanish would establish defensive settlements into east Texas as in OTL. Monterrey would be the obvious terminus for trade. I would expect a robust Spanish response to defend Mexico.
 
IMO, a reconquest was inevitable. The Spaniards needed to reconquer New Mexico, in order to stop French westwards movement and to end the Native raids on, what's now, Northern Mexico.
 
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