Valdemar II
Banned
Inspired by this thread. How can the Spanish win (keeping the northen Netherlands)? Preferable without a pragmatic compromise, but with full Spanish victory.
No other comments?
No compromise, so no success for the Compromise of Nobles.
Spain has the best chances early in the conflict. The (especially early) campaigns of William the Silent weren't very successful; if the Geuzen in particular the Watergeuzen become less successful and Spain gets a capable commander. Especially Alexander Farnese, the duke of Parma (governor from 1578-1592), was a good commander and had good political skills. The earlier Spanish commander, the duke of Alva, was a great general, but he was lacking some political skills for a good approach in the Low Countries.
No armada or campaign against France, might be a good thing for Parma, he can use his troops in the Low Countries. Certainly at the begin of this conflict there were a few times were the rebellion only controlled (parts of) the counties of Holland and Zeeland...
No other comments?
No compromise, so no success for the Compromise of Nobles.
Spain has the best chances early in the conflict. The (especially early) campaigns of William the Silent weren't very successful; if the Geuzen in particular the Watergeuzen become less successful and Spain gets a capable commander. Especially Alexander Farnese, the duke of Parma (governor from 1578-1592), was a good commander and had good political skills. The earlier Spanish commander, the duke of Alva, was a great general, but he was lacking some political skills for a good approach in the Low Countries.
No armada or campaign against France, might be a good thing for Parma, he can use his troops in the Low Countries. Certainly at the begin of this conflict there were a few times were the rebellion only controlled (parts of) the counties of Holland and Zeeland...
I agree, an early victory is the key. If the Spanish can continue their early successes when the managed to put down the revolt in Flanders and Brabant and much of the north east, the Dutch revolt ends, probably with many protestants fleeing the country or being killed by the Spanish (like what happened with the Spanish occupied parts of the Netherlands, Belgium, Brabant, Twente, etc).
The Netherlands will probably end up a relatively unimportant part of the Spanish Empire and does not become the extremely wealthy country it was OTL, although it still will be a trade hub for Baltic seetrade and such, but not a colonial power. I think all or most of it will end up French as Spain didn't realy care that much for it.
Through the effect of that would be interesting too, Netherlands was a century to two ahead of the rest of Northen Europe in agricultural advances, it was in the forefront of craftmenship, the spread of a Dutch dispora of tens to hundred of thousands, could push a earlier agricultural revolution among the Protestant states of Northen Europe, while at the same time make room for a earlier and stronger urban industries among them too.
The effect are going to be interesting, a collapse or lack of the Dutch Republic would mean that someone else would need to take their position. We would likely see a competion between Denmark, the Hansetic League and Gottorp over taking their position as the main Baltic trading power, while England would likely end up taking the Dutch position in the Americas and Far East a century earlier. In the Baltic trade I lean to Denmark winning out, simply because it can military crush its competitors and it strategic position mean that it can cut them of from trade between the Baltic and North Sea, through Hamburgs pragmatism and good position may mean that it end up dominating the North Sea trade, especially because it was quite willing to let immigrant settle in their town, even if they didn't follow the True Faith (High Lutheranism). If Hamburg are also willing to expand into the Bishoprics of Bremen, Verden and Lübeck, it's in a good position to create a new mini-Netherlands.