Failed Dutch Revolution.

Valdemar II

Banned
Inspired by this thread. How can the Spanish win (keeping the northen Netherlands)? Preferable without a pragmatic compromise, but with full Spanish victory.
 
No other comments?

No compromise, so no success for the Compromise of Nobles.

Spain has the best chances early in the conflict. The (especially early) campaigns of William the Silent weren't very successful; if the Geuzen in particular the Watergeuzen become less successful and Spain gets a capable commander. Especially Alexander Farnese, the duke of Parma (governor from 1578-1592), was a good commander and had good political skills. The earlier Spanish commander, the duke of Alva, was a great general, but he was lacking some political skills for a good approach in the Low Countries.

No armada or campaign against France, might be a good thing for Parma, he can use his troops in the Low Countries. Certainly at the begin of this conflict there were a few times were the rebellion only controlled (parts of) the counties of Holland and Zeeland...
 
No other comments?

No compromise, so no success for the Compromise of Nobles.

Spain has the best chances early in the conflict. The (especially early) campaigns of William the Silent weren't very successful; if the Geuzen in particular the Watergeuzen become less successful and Spain gets a capable commander. Especially Alexander Farnese, the duke of Parma (governor from 1578-1592), was a good commander and had good political skills. The earlier Spanish commander, the duke of Alva, was a great general, but he was lacking some political skills for a good approach in the Low Countries.

No armada or campaign against France, might be a good thing for Parma, he can use his troops in the Low Countries. Certainly at the begin of this conflict there were a few times were the rebellion only controlled (parts of) the counties of Holland and Zeeland...

I agree, an early victory is the key. If the Spanish can continue their early successes when the managed to put down the revolt in Flanders and Brabant and much of the north east, the Dutch revolt ends, probably with many protestants fleeing the country or being killed by the Spanish (like what happened with the Spanish occupied parts of the Netherlands, Belgium, Brabant, Twente, etc).

The Netherlands will probably end up a relatively unimportant part of the Spanish Empire and does not become the extremely wealthy country it was OTL, although it still will be a trade hub for Baltic seetrade and such, but not a colonial power. I think all or most of it will end up French as Spain didn't realy care that much for it.
 

Valdemar II

Banned
No other comments?

No compromise, so no success for the Compromise of Nobles.

Spain has the best chances early in the conflict. The (especially early) campaigns of William the Silent weren't very successful; if the Geuzen in particular the Watergeuzen become less successful and Spain gets a capable commander. Especially Alexander Farnese, the duke of Parma (governor from 1578-1592), was a good commander and had good political skills. The earlier Spanish commander, the duke of Alva, was a great general, but he was lacking some political skills for a good approach in the Low Countries.

No armada or campaign against France, might be a good thing for Parma, he can use his troops in the Low Countries. Certainly at the begin of this conflict there were a few times were the rebellion only controlled (parts of) the counties of Holland and Zeeland...

I agree, an early victory is the key. If the Spanish can continue their early successes when the managed to put down the revolt in Flanders and Brabant and much of the north east, the Dutch revolt ends, probably with many protestants fleeing the country or being killed by the Spanish (like what happened with the Spanish occupied parts of the Netherlands, Belgium, Brabant, Twente, etc).

The Netherlands will probably end up a relatively unimportant part of the Spanish Empire and does not become the extremely wealthy country it was OTL, although it still will be a trade hub for Baltic seetrade and such, but not a colonial power. I think all or most of it will end up French as Spain didn't realy care that much for it.

Interesting, through I think Netherlands will stay important, much of OTL (relative) poverty (compared to the Dutch Republic) of the Southen Netherlands was because it was cut off from it traditionals trade route, and the closing/blockage of Antwerp made the transportation of freigth much harder, but it still upkept a wages which was average for westen Europe. Another element Zeeland too was hard hit by the cut of trade to the southen Netherlands. I think Holland and Frisia are going to end up poorer (through Holland will still be among the richest areas of Europe) but most of the other provinces will likely do better. Friesland will likely be hit hard, because much of the North Sea and Baltic trade will be cut off, Dutch refugees will settle in protestant areas, and bring their connections, know how and to lesser extent capital with them, and likely we see Denmark and the Hansetic league compete over taking over the Dutch position in the Baltic. Through I think Denmark are going to win. It will especially hit Friesland hard, they especially specialies in the Baltic trade, and had less diversity in their economy than Netherlands.

The Netherlands will likely focus toward the Rhine trade instead with the Baltic and North Sea trade weakened, that was somewhat destroyed in OTL 80YW, here it will do better and Brabant, Flandern and Zeeland will especially benefit from it, while it will make up from some of the loss of Baltic trade for Holland.

With such a early loss, we will likely see a significant dispora, Netherland had around 4,5 million people at the time with a significant Protestant minority, and significant Catholic minority hostile to the Spanish. so we will likely see 200-300 thousand refugees (lot of Protestants will convert fast after the Spanish conquest, but a significant number will think it's a good idea to leave in haste). England will likely receive a significant amount, but so will the North German and Rhineland cities and Denmark. Denmark, England and Ducal and Royal Prussia will especially benefit from Dutch agricultural advances, all have a climate somewhat similar to Netherlands, and burghers and peasants have a stronger position in both states, than in most other North European states with where Dutch agricultural technics would be useful (especially the introduction of potato and red clover would be beneficial, but drainage technics would also be very welcomed).

I came with a suggestion like this to some effects:

Through the effect of that would be interesting too, Netherlands was a century to two ahead of the rest of Northen Europe in agricultural advances, it was in the forefront of craftmenship, the spread of a Dutch dispora of tens to hundred of thousands, could push a earlier agricultural revolution among the Protestant states of Northen Europe, while at the same time make room for a earlier and stronger urban industries among them too.

The effect are going to be interesting, a collapse or lack of the Dutch Republic would mean that someone else would need to take their position. We would likely see a competion between Denmark, the Hansetic League and Gottorp over taking their position as the main Baltic trading power, while England would likely end up taking the Dutch position in the Americas and Far East a century earlier. In the Baltic trade I lean to Denmark winning out, simply because it can military crush its competitors and it strategic position mean that it can cut them of from trade between the Baltic and North Sea, through Hamburgs pragmatism and good position may mean that it end up dominating the North Sea trade, especially because it was quite willing to let immigrant settle in their town, even if they didn't follow the True Faith (High Lutheranism). If Hamburg are also willing to expand into the Bishoprics of Bremen, Verden and Lübeck, it's in a good position to create a new mini-Netherlands.
 
Send anyone with the slightest gift for diplomacy and the slightest interest in any development other than a blood bath instead of the Duke of Alva.

The man murdered loyal Catholic aristocrats for trying to negotiate an end to the war on terms that involved something other than mass slaughter.
 
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