Failed Cape Invasion 1806

In 1795 the British invaded Cape Colony for the first time. They won an small battle and returned it after 7 years of their control.
After that they invaded it again in 1806 with a bigger force.

But what if this time Boers disliked the British rule and so they prepared for a future British Invasion by creating defense plans and forming militias, so when the British invade again the city in 1806, the population resists and manages to defeat the British force, in a similar way as the Porteños defeated the British in Buenos Aires, in part because of their determination and in part due to a tactical mistakes from the British commander. After doing this the Boer population realizes of what they can do by themselves.
By this time, Boers are about 50.000, so maybe they could create their own country. They don't have powerful enemies near them and aren't very dispersed.

Could they make a deal with the British where they are allowed to form an Independent country, but they agree in allowing free commerce with the British as well as letting the British settle in Natalia?

The Scenario is the following:
During the first invasion, the British forces had several conflicts with the Boers, which made them anti-British. And when they are returned to the Dutch in 1802, many Boers are happy. But they know British could invade again and so they prepare for a new invasion.
So in 1806, during the Second Invasion British troops are the same as OTL and land in the same place, but Boer militia now is bigger and better prepared. They fight first out of Cape Town and the British win a small battle. The Militia retreats to the city and when he's going to invade the town, the British commander makes a mistake by exposing his troops too much and they are heavily hit by militia cavalry. After loosing about 1000 of his men, the British Commander surrenders, but imposes a treaty on the Boer, and they accept as they know it's a take it or leave it situation.
The Boer will form a Republic which the British will recognize as independent and Free Trade will be accepted by the Boers. Also, the Boers won't meddle in any attempt done by the British to conquer Natalia and establish a colony there.

Is this possible/plausible?

If it is, how could it develop?
 
Will it be an independent state or a part of the Netherlands (Batavian republic or kingdom of the Netherlands). If they become part of the Netherlands a nice side effect could be that Afrikaans will be nothing more than a strange dialect or something like Frisian OTL.
 
Will it be an independent state or a part of the Netherlands (Batavian republic or kingdom of the Netherlands). If they become part of the Netherlands a nice side effect could be that Afrikaans will be nothing more than a strange dialect or something like Frisian OTL.

If they are part of the Netherlands, that should increase immigration - particularly if the Dutch or the Afrikaaners decide to subsidize it. After all, many German emmigrants started from Dutch ports.

Another important difference between independence and being part of the Netherlands is slavery/the relation to blacks. An independent Cape republic will likely keep on slavery and racial segregation by far longer than a dependent Dutch colony.
 
Generaal Jan Willem Janssens was in 1806 head of a small contingent of soldiers and militia. He chose to confront the invading British with a straight forward battle tactics. Which of course was a failure. Better POD could be when this guy chose a kind of guerrilla tactic. Using the knowledge of the country and survivability of the semi nomadic life stile of the Boers and used it against the British more or less like the Boers did OTL 90 years later.
It would not stop the invasion nor the occupation but it would give the British such a nasty taste, they want to get rid of this difficult colony as soon as Napoleon was defeated and Europe was back '' restored'' to the old order.
 
Generaal Jan Willem Janssens was in 1806 head of a small contingent of soldiers and militia. He chose to confront the invading British with a straight forward battle tactics. Which of course was a failure. Better POD could be when this guy chose a kind of guerrilla tactic. Using the knowledge of the country and survivability of the semi nomadic life stile of the Boers and used it against the British more or less like the Boers did OTL 90 years later.
It would not stop the invasion nor the occupation but it would give the British such a nasty taste, they want to get rid of this difficult colony as soon as Napoleon was defeated and Europe was back '' restored'' to the old order.

I like this idea. Pretty much easier.

So supposing what Parma said happens, how could this evolve?

Personally I see them acting like Argentina, where after the defeat of mother country troops, the local population managed to defend for themselves and so saw their potential. After the end of the war and with British support, they become an independent country. Also there is only one important city, Cape Town, which would be the most important trading port in the country and a modernizing factor, much as Buenos Aires was for Argentina.

To avoid this difficult colony and taking advance of their good relations with Radama I, the British set their base between Europe and Asia in the island of Madagascar.

At first the country will be pretty disorganized and with no clear central power, but with time, Cape Town rising power and the interests of its merchant elite will make the country try to modernize and attract immigrants.
I don't see the Great Trek happening, but when the Boers become an organized state, they will certainly try to conquer the Transvaal region and maybe Namibia, but they will avoid the conquest of Zulu lands. Maybe if they keep slavery they could try to capture some more slaves there but otherwise I see them avoiding the place, as they are more populated and not as easy to assimilate.

Also, the Boer government may try to expell the Native population from their lands and send them to neighbourign areas. The conquered areas will be populated by immigrants and by the growing Boer population.

By the end of XIX Century, the european views of the modernizing faction as well as the immigrants will make the slavery end. The discovery of gold will bring money and more immigrants to the country. Many will be Germans, but some Dutch, Scandinavian and Baltic will come too.

That's what I guess for the first 100 years.
 
A colony would never be left alone as you discribe. As the rules and habbits of that time, and present time, the colony will restored to the previuos onwner or its successor, in this case the new Kindom of the Netherlands.
Suppose the British gave back the Cape colony to the new Kindom of the Netherlands. Most likely keeping a refreshing station in OTL Durban or later establish it.
The new Dutch, gouvernement of the Cape Colony would try to centralise the administration, as in the home land, trying to stop slavery ( they were obliged to do due to agrements with the British) so they would upset the hardline, Calvinist and alienated Boers just as much as the British did in OTL. A Boer trek would happen.
Influx of immigrants could become higher this time from the Netherlands ( OTL Netherlands and Belgium) since the population was by now poverised, giving them a reson to escape the misery of the home land and try there luck in a remote Dutch possesion.
The Boers were almost as nomadic as the Zulu and Xhosa. All three populations lived from the land and there huge herds of cattle. Since they were on this point not so different an clash of them is al most inevidable. A simple fight for resources. All parties are convinced of their superiority, so no one want to give in before a fight.
One of the main resond for the Trek of the Boer was to live without intervention of a STATE in what form, the establishment of the Boer Republics was a nessity to survive, not a goal.
 
But won't there eventually be a faction more eurocentrist urban boers or Dutch immigrants the ones who will seek for organization of the colony.

And this kind of cattle herding people can be bring into submission anb obligated to settle or work. Here in Argentina, the Gauchos were that kind of people. They were rural, they didn't want to be organized, they lived of nomadic cattle herding or working in ranchs. When the part of Argentina which organized became more powerful, they could put the gauchos into submission and make them settle either as rural workers or living in small towns.

I know Boers are not the same, are more numerous and etc.

So we will see the Dutch trying to centralize the colony and ban slavery. Dutch and maybe German immigrants will come to the colony, perhaps under goverment sponsorship. This situation will anger the Boers, who will start the Great Trek to Transvaal. Here I don't know if the Dutch will allow it. If they do, over time the Dutch might try to incorporate the Boer republics into Cape Colony. The reason could be gold, the threat they represent or the presion from immigration. But if the UK will allow it I don't really know. Maybe the Dutch leave them alone and they continue their lives happily maybe becoming one united Boer country.

Pretending they incorporate the Boers, they will eventually make them settle down. Immigration will continue, between 500,000 and 1,5 million between 1810 and 1930.

Is this any better?
 
A discussant of alternative history (known only as bga...@my-dejanews.com) had this to say about a possible "Dutch South Africa":

“[The] most probable variant of South African history is strangely, also the least popular. It was not all that clear back in 1800, that Britain would keep Cape colony and not give it back to the Dutch as they did with Indonesia. Perhaps, if Raffles had his way, Britain would have kept Indonesia and gave Cape to the Netherlands instead. Let's assume that and see what happens.

Post-Napoleonic Netherlands is a different country now, perhaps too different for conservative Boers. With increasing pressure from domestic liberals and from international public opinion, Dutch colonial authorities finally proceed with abolishing slavery in South Africa. The Boers fiercely protest, Netherlands use force to make them comply. Part of Boers frees their slaves, the rest, so called Trek-Boers decide to keep their principles intact and move into interior where they encounter advancing Bantu tribes. Dutch rule is becoming increasingly unpopular, there is not much of new Dutch immigration and by the end of 19 century, the Boers of Cape and Natal have had enough of the Dutch and together with their cousins from Transvaal and Oranjefreistaat kick out colonial authorities and declare independence. The Dutch government sends troops, but is defeated in short, but brutal Boer war. By 1890, the Boer states unite to form United States of South Africa - VSAS.

The new republic lacks experience to manage and exploit its enormous natural resources and larger European nations begin to express interest. African Great Game ends with temporary German victory who quickly establish themselves as primary ally, advisor and sponsor of young republic. German mining companies receive huge diamond and gold concessions, German corporations build strategic railways to German East Africa, German military advisors train Boer army and German navy establishes its bases at ports of Kapstadt, Durban and others.

During WWI, South Africa becomes a major front, both on land and at sea. Despite over one million British and Allied troops, the outnumbered Germans and Boers offer surprisingly strong resistance and by the time of Armistice, they still held most of nation's territory. The terms of peace treaty therefore are quite mild for Boers, while the Germans lose all their colonial posessions. After the war, Britain replaces Germany as South Africa's major trading partner, investor and defender. Despite all that, there is negligible British or other European immigration, black majority suffers as always and nation remains backward and unpopular.”
 
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