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Trying to sketch out a TL, this is a major event in it. Tried to refine it a bit from an earlier thread.

A few assumptions going in:

The Night of the Dulled Knives: The Iranian Cultural Revolution of 1980 - 1983 are not nearly as effective as in OTL, for one reason or another (suggestions?). Many dissidents within the Iranian military and government escape detection.

Draw A Hardline: The Soviet Union remains under the control of communist hardliners after 1985. Andropov lives a bit longer and/or is succeeded by Romanov, Chebrikov, or some other hardliner.* These hardliners continue to prosecute the war in Afghanistan, clamp down on dissent in the Warsaw Pact, and fund pro-communist nations and guerillas across the globe.

Red Afghanistan: The Russians achieve victory in Afghanistan by early 1988. Negotiations with China result in the PRC cutting aid to the Mujahadeen, while the Red Army adopts ruthless tactics in crushing the rebels, including chemical weapons strikes against rebel-held areas. While a low-level insurgency will continue for years to come, the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan will remain firmly within Soviet orbit, and an essential FOB for Russian power projection into the Middle East.

Peace Sells, But Who’s Buying?: By July 1988, Iran’s war with neighboring Iraq has dragged on for nearly eight years. Ayatollah Khomenei rejects calls by his advisors to accept the UN ceasefire. In a public speech on July 20, he declares that peace with Iraq is impossible and calls on all Iranians to continue fighting until the Islamic Revolution crushes Saddam’s corrupt Ba’athist regime.

Within a week, the Iraqi military launches a massive CW strike on Teheran, using both bombers and ballistic missiles to deliver the deadly combination of sarin and cyclosarin to their targets. Nearly 100,000 are killed in the attack. Among the dead are numerous senior Iranian political, military, and religious officials, including Ayatollah Khomeini himself. Meanwhile, a lightning-fast Iraqi offensive is able to strike deep into Iranian territory, seizing Khuzestan from Iranian control. Not wishing to suffer any more casualties than necessary and satisfied with his spoils, Saddam opts to not press further into Iraqi territory. An emergency peace is reached between what is left of the Iranian government and the Iraqis, making Iraq’s territorial gains and effective victory in the First Gulf War official.

The Center Cannot Hold: In the aftermath of the sudden destruction of the Iranian government, numerous factions vie for power. Civil war soon breaks out as these factions battle for the future of Iran.

So, as I see it, these are the main factions (very rough sketches):

- The Islamic Republic (Qom Government): The remnants of the Islamist government, backed by the IRGC and loyalist Artesh units. Have largely doubled down on the hardline Shiite Twelver ideology. Intend to reunite Iran under their theocracy and spread the Islamic Revolution across the Gulf.

- Iranian People’s Army: Largely comprised of pro-Tudeh units of the Iranian military, as well as a few other leftist groups. Main goal is to reunite Iran under a communist, ostensibly secular government (though more than a few figures have made appeals to “Red Shi’ism” and “Islamic Communism”). Are especially strong in Northern Iran thanks to heavy material aid from the Soviet Union. Are currently trying to persuade Moscow to intervene on their behalf.

- Iranian Democratic Forces/Free Iranian Army:
Ostensibly a pro-democracy alliance, this rag-tag alliance of liberals, Mossadeghists, moderate Artesh units, moderate Islamists, moderate leftists, the errant Shah loyalist, etc. can mainly be defined by thier opposition to the other two. Often fight amongst themselves. Backed by the US and other western powers. Are currently trying to sway Washington into intervening on their behalf.

- Iraq + Mojahaden E Khalq: Naturally, the Iraqis have been involved in the Iranian Civil War since it’s beginning, battling attempts from several factions to retake Khuzestan. They back the Islamic Communist MEK, a cult-like terrorist army that has lost much of it’s support amongst Iranians for openly siding with Iraq. Are also supported by Arabs and Sunnis within Iran. They are supported by the Gulf States and the West for fear of the resurgence of Islamism or the rise of Iranian Communism.

Where would Shah loyalists fall? Would they be anything resembling a major force, or would there

Who would the Kurds support? Might they just be their own faction? How would other ethnic groups align?

Is there any chance that the USSR could intervene without triggering WW3 thanks to Carter Doctrine?

Very much a hodgepodge but trying to refine it into something workable.



*(Side note: why do so many popular AH Soviet dictators have named ending in -ov? Aside from those already named, we have Kryuchkov, Ustinov, Ogarkov, etc.)
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