F-117A Performance in NATO-Warsaw Pact War, 1989

Say that following a major crisis beginning in late 1988, NATO and the Warsaw Pact go to war in February 1989. The F-117A Nighthawk, declassified a mere four months ago, is brought to bear alongside other Western weapons against the invading communist armies.

How would the Nighthawk have fared in a late '80s World War III against the Soviet Union? I get the feeling that they would be far from wonder weapons; the Serbs were able to detect and down F-117s using modified 1960s-vintage Soviet systems.
 
Say that following a major crisis beginning in late 1988, NATO and the Warsaw Pact go to war in February 1989. The F-117A Nighthawk, declassified a mere four months ago, is brought to bear alongside other Western weapons against the invading communist armies.

How would the Nighthawk have fared in a late '80s World War III against the Soviet Union? I get the feeling that they would be far from wonder weapons; the Serbs were able to detect and down F-117s using modified 1960s-vintage Soviet systems.
I seem to recall the Serbs only downed a single F117 :)

I suspect in a NATO / Warsaw Pact conflict they would have done fairly well, but probably wouldn't have been invincible. I also suspect at first the impact of the F117's as seen by WP would have been largely "lost in the noise" of the overall NATO air campaign. I have my doubts that the war (or at least the conventional phase of a war) would have lasted long enough for the WP to devise specific tactics to counter the F117 based on their initial experiences facing the F117.
 

SsgtC

Banned
This is a quote from the following linked article:

"The SAMs were most likely guided manually with the help of thermal images and laser rangefinders included in the Pechora-M variant of the SA-3s believed to have been used. Reportedly several SA-3s were launched, one of which detonated in close proximity to the F-117A, forcing the pilot to eject."

So in other words, it was downed by a method that the Soviets, at least initially, would be unlikely to employ. This is a situation where the SAM battery commander could not afford to devote that much attention to a single aircraft. NATO would be sending hundreds of aircraft into Soviet airspace at a time. Not the handful at a time that they did in Serbia. Now, eventually, you may see that happen as people behind to realize the threat that the single aircraft overhead represents.

So, for me, the F-117 in 89 would have been highly effective. You have to remember, the Serbs (and the rest of the world) had 8 years to figure out how to down a stealth fighter since the end of Gulf War 1. The Soviets wouldn't have that. While I have no doubt that they would have eventually figured out countermeasures, at the start of the war, when the Nighthawk would have had it's biggest impact (hitting bridges, tunnels, bridging equipment, ammo and fuel dumps, etc), they'd be nearly immune during their strikes. Undoubtedly some would be lost, but at a rate far below that of other NATO aircraft.

Article quote is taken from: https://www.defenceaviation.com/2007/02/how-was-f-117-shot-down-part-1.html
 
I seem to recall the Serbs only downed a single F117 :)

The main reason there wasn't another shoot down is that the Serbs were grossly outclassed and had very limited air defense assets (just 22 SA-6 batteries defended the entire country) and NATO had total air supremacy over their small country. They couldn't afford to go toe to toe with the NATO air forces and had to wage guerrilla aerial warfare. With NATO placing its highest priority on avoiding losses, this left them with few good opportunities. They took the ones they got. Otherwise, the techniques the Serbs used to track and down the stealth fighter were sound and could be repeated.

However NATO attacks on the Warsaw Pact would have no choice but to accept much higher risks in far less favorable situations (likely the stealth's will not operate under an unbroken friendly air umbrella). If the Soviets develop the same techniques then Stealth flights into the vastly heavier defenses of East Germany, Poland, and the USSR will start taking serious losses. Of course, by '89 Pact training, morale, and maintenance standards had collapsed pretty badly in a manner that wasn't the case with the Serbs. So whether their personnel would have both the ability and motivation to try to implement the techniques is dubious.

So in other words, it was downed by a method that the Soviets, at least initially, would be unlikely to employ.

That's rather contradicted by your quoted section, which features a Soviet system with all the features to use that method. That's a pretty solid indication that the method was already a part of the Soviet playbook when the S-125 was built, even if it was not intended to be used against stealth aircraft specifically, much less the much newer and more advanced systems fielded by the 80's. Furthermore, the Soviets had already figured that NATO was fielding some form of stealth aircraft so would have likely already have delved into how to counter it. Hence, in my opinion, if any failure arises it's likely going to be on the bottom end of the kill chain with the people who actually have to execute the shoot downs.
 
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SsgtC

Banned
That's rather contradicted by your quoted section, which features a Soviet system with all the features to use that method. That's a pretty solid indication that the method was already a part of the Soviet playbook when the S-125 was built, even if it was not intended to be used against stealth aircraft specifically, much less the much newer and more advanced systems fielded by the 80's. Furthermore, the Soviets had already figured that NATO was fielding some form of stealth aircraft so would have likely already have delved into how to counter it. Hence, in my opinion, if any failure arises it's likely going to be on the bottom end of the kill chain with the people who actually have to execute the shoot downs.
The reason I stated that I felt the Soviets would be unlikely to employ this particular method, at least initially, is target saturation. The Soviet air defense system would be dealing with far more targets then they could realistically handle. The lone aircraft flying at subsonic speed, assuming it's even detected, wouldn't be considered much of a threat. At least at first. Now as the war progresses, definitely, they'd try anything to down them. Including the aforementioned manual guidance mode.
 
The reason I stated that I felt the Soviets would be unlikely to employ this particular method, at least initially, is target saturation. The Soviet air defense system would be dealing with far more targets then they could realistically handle. The lone aircraft flying at subsonic speed, assuming it's even detected, wouldn't be considered much of a threat. At least at first. Now as the war progresses, definitely, they'd try anything to down them. Including the aforementioned manual guidance mode.

Fair enough. I find it plausible that the F-117 might eat missiles fired via that method for other reasons (namely the incredibly severe ECM environment WWIII was supposed to be making more regular radar targeting difficult, which is probably what that sort of stuff was originally intended for) but that would be more incidental then intentional and loss rates would still likely be a bit lower, as you note. Of course, the thing is that there are a lot fewer F117s then other aircraft to begin with so even a low loss rate could pretty severely impact operational tempos. But again, even that still assumes SAM operators with enough competency and motivation to do their jobs which might be asking more then the '89 Red Army was capable of achieving.
 
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There are claims Czechoslovak Tamara system was able to track F-117s. 19 were exported to Soviet Union, 4 used by Czechoslovak army and 1 exported to Germany. After reunification Germans used their to 2010.
 
I recall news stories how the downed F117 was following the same flight path as at least one previous mission. Some versions claim two previous missions. That gave the Serb battery commander some insight into the possible direction, speed, & altitude. If this story is correct it suggests the USAF mission planners were....
 
During Vietnam it got so the B-52 strikes over North Vietnam were basically flying flight plans like normal airline routings...
 
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