Well, as covered in Post 13 of Part I, Sagan has a bit more influence here than OTL--here, instead of the separate National Space Institute and Planetary Society, there's the unified National Space Organization, with Sagan succeeding Von Braun as chief public face, and marketing it fairly strongly in Cosmos and other appearances--which leads to a membership roll of over 150,000 by 1983. That's the leverage he's able to bring to bear on the proposed cuts to NASA's unmanned funding, and he's got similar leverage against any cuts to observatories and arrays.
Good to know. I still think this might be an area where a lot of tertiary players try to make their mark. (There must be some decent observatory sites on the Arabian peninsula.)
And anyway, this is already an area IOTL where countries have chosen to invest in without going for full space programs. As an example, the summit of Mauna Kea hosts facilities of a dozen nations IOTL. A lot of those are European, and Europe is much more likely to cut funding than the US (ESA or fancy observatories, not both) without a Reagan, Sagan, or NSO to push them into funding everything.
Not saying they'll cut funding for observatories entirely of course. Right now the UK has a stake in 3 MK observatories, maybe they're only in 1 ITTL? Or maybe Europe can combine its resources more effectively so that the various small contributions of various European states are employed more effectively.
So maybe that opens up space for other countries to invest in the MK summit: South America, Arabia, East Asia, maybe South Africa after '92 and even China a little bit later than that. Maybe Israel. And that's just one mountain.
On another note, are we seeing any noticeable change in the education choices of young people ITTL? The renewed excitement of space sending a higher percentage of college kids into STEM fields?
One can hope! The SSC's cancellation was a major change in the US mentality towards science and technology in general. If it is allowed to go forward, the Vannevar Bush "big science is a worth national investment" mentality may not totally be replaced by "commercial is always better, let the private industry do it if they feel like and if not it's not worth doing" which seems to permeate American thinking these days. Private industry is great, but it fails to see the profits to be made from pure science and tends not to build many superconducting supercolliders. Which is probably as it should be, since their primary responsibility is their shareholders. And yet pure science has value! Once we knew that well, now if it doesn't immediately provide some new improvement to our iphone or whatever it's just not worth it. Oh well, hopefully the pendulum will swing the other way eventually...
Speaking of lead-on tech, anyone have a notion of what we might see entering the market earlier because of the new space race? As you say, e_wraith, pure science has value. But I'm still curious.
For one, maybe faster improvement of solar cells?
Speaking of lead-on tech, anyone have a notion of what we might see entering the market earlier because of the new space race? As you say, e_wraith, pure science has value. But I'm still curious.
For one, maybe faster improvement of solar cells?
That's always a possibility. Makes the satellites and stations work for longer with less maintenance on one critical department. Juno-type missions become possible earlier than IOTL.
All good points of interest to be looked at in Part II, with perhaps real work in Part III.
However, with extra investment in certain departments. Pu238 (Plutonium-238) looks to be a viable deep-space probe power source for longer, IMHO.
Probably not good ones. A good optical observatory wants to be at altitude, above a chunk of the atmosphere. There arent any high mountains in arabia.
Now, radio astronomy, miles and miles of desert would make a great location for a large array. In fact ac clarke built one there in one of his novels, forget which one.
Part II: Post 4: Japan's First Steps Into Space
All right, folks. Once more across the Pacific to check in again on the rest of Japan's space program. I'll be interested to see what people make of this update--this is sort of the last of the Freedom background material, setting the scene on which Freedom was planned. I'll also throw in my usual thanks for taking this to a jumbo-sized 747 comments and 76580 views, which still astounds me considering what this all started as.
Eyes Turned Skyward, Part II: Post #4
The European space program wasn’t the only space program undergoing rapid growth during the decade prior to 1982. Japan was in the middle of a major surge in prosperity, and part of reinventing its national image had been the beginnings of a space program. The process began in 1969, when the 61st session of the national Diet passed laws approving the creation of a National Space Development Agency of Japan (NASDA). The start was quick--the law was passed in June, and by October they had already established a headquarters and launch site at Tanegashima island, as well as additional subsidiary branches and tracking stations for orbital missions. However, their new national program would need a launcher, and that posed a challenge for Japan unlike the one posed to Europe. Where Europa had been able to build off the proven and capable Blue Streak for early vehicles in the family, Japan had no such independent missile program, and beginning one from scratch posed serious challenges. Thus, NASDA would also build its first vehicle off of a proven launcher, but not a native one. Japan’s first vehicle, as authorized in 1970, would be the N-1, a version of the American Delta rocket. Some assemblies (mostly those covered under arms control regulations) were produced by the original American suppliers, though other components produced in Japan to American specifications, and then integrated into a complete vehicle in Japan. The configuration was essentially a “Long Tank Thor” Delta with three Castor 2 solid rocket boosters, roughly duplicating the Delta M configuration. The plan was that Japan could move to producing more assemblies or entire stages natively, leveraging operational experience with the imported vehicle designs while still having a reliable vehicle available relatively quickly. By 1975, the project had come to fruition, with the N-1 beginning a seven-launch campaign from Tanegashima, which would last through 1982. Included in this were Japan’s first communication satellites, as well as probes to study the ionosphere. The program was reasonably successful, with only two failures--impressive compared to the early records of many other national space programs, and demonstrating the benefits of the Japanese plans to build on the experience of existing programs.
Even as the N-1 launch campaign was ongoing, work began in 1976 on the N-2, following on from N-1 with increased Japanese-built components and a full 9 solid rockets, allowing a payload of 2 tons to LEO or 730 kg to a geostationary transfer orbit (GTO). The plan was for the vehicle to be operational by 1981, at which point Japan would focus on its first complete upper stages to be paired with the existing Delta/Thor-based first stage. However, the American ELVRP I program threw a serious wrench into the works. As McDonnell-Douglas focused heavily on its Delta 4000 entrant in the competition, its interest in the older Thor-based Delta was declining. In particular, while McDonnell was willing to supply stages for N-2 under existing contract arrangements, future work would have to involve increased payments by Japan--either to support the Delta lines if McDonnell didn’t win the competition, or to preserve the Thor infrastructure in parallel with the Delta 4000 if (as it happened in 1978) McDonnell won. Japan was faced with a decision: pay the increased fees and continue along the Thor-based direction it had charted previously (which would be costly), move from focusing on native-built upper stages to a new Japanese lower stage (which would require abandoning or at least postponing the focus on upper stages that they had been building towards), or seizing the chance presented to them by the new Delta 4000. Deliberations and exploratory contract negotiations lasted almost three years, from 1978 to early 1981.
In the end, Japan decided to be ambitious, and move to a similarly license-built version of the Delta 4000, with a new Japanese-built upper stage replacing the American Centaur--perhaps motivated by the fact that they would have to spend substantially in any case and this option would offer more dramatic growth potential, perhaps due to the public support resulting from the upcoming flights of Japanese astronauts to the American Spacelab station, or perhaps some of both. Regardless of the motivation, the new vehicle--dubbed “H-1”--began development in 1981 with a planned entry into service in 1986. It will consist of the the new Delta 4000 first stage, with a Japanese-built hydrolox upper stage using natively designed-and-built engines. The roughly 6 ton capability of the vehicle will be sufficient for the Japanese to dual-launch some payloads that were being designed for the originally-planned improved Delta, and also enable larger and more capable satellites and perhaps even deep-space probes. The revised planning also called for an H-II vehicle to fly with a Japanese-built first stage by 1990, with a capability equalling or perhaps even exceeding the Delta 4000’s maximum 13 ton payload to LEO. If so, it would be another major success for the Japanese strategy, reaching near-parity with the basic launch capabilities of countries like the United States and the joint efforts of the European continent in just two short decades.
In addition to their launch vehicle development programs, NASDA was also working to build on its successes to expand its human spaceflight programs. The late 1981 flight of Katsuyama Hideki and the coming flights of two more astronauts to Spacelab seemed to show a natural path for increased Japanese participation in manned spaceflight. Thus, as NASA’s own studies were ongoing for post-Spacelab stations, NASDA also began examining the possibility of launching their own lab to such a station, perhaps on a NASA vehicle, and to negotiate a more long-standing agreement for seats, more like the European “fourth seat” on every Block III+ than the intermittent short-stays allowed by what would come to be the Spaceflight Participation Program. The established practice of barter would have Japan providing some hardware for the station that NASA desired in exchange for the launch of Japan’s own hardware. The question of what Japan might be able to provide was factored into NASA’s planning, much as NASA were factoring in European interest. However, the impetus provided by Vulkan would come to drive many of these plans rapidly from concepts to defined components and contracting.
Eyes Turned Skyward, Part II: Post #4
The European space program wasn’t the only space program undergoing rapid growth during the decade prior to 1982. Japan was in the middle of a major surge in prosperity, and part of reinventing its national image had been the beginnings of a space program. The process began in 1969, when the 61st session of the national Diet passed laws approving the creation of a National Space Development Agency of Japan (NASDA). The start was quick--the law was passed in June, and by October they had already established a headquarters and launch site at Tanegashima island, as well as additional subsidiary branches and tracking stations for orbital missions. However, their new national program would need a launcher, and that posed a challenge for Japan unlike the one posed to Europe. Where Europa had been able to build off the proven and capable Blue Streak for early vehicles in the family, Japan had no such independent missile program, and beginning one from scratch posed serious challenges. Thus, NASDA would also build its first vehicle off of a proven launcher, but not a native one. Japan’s first vehicle, as authorized in 1970, would be the N-1, a version of the American Delta rocket. Some assemblies (mostly those covered under arms control regulations) were produced by the original American suppliers, though other components produced in Japan to American specifications, and then integrated into a complete vehicle in Japan. The configuration was essentially a “Long Tank Thor” Delta with three Castor 2 solid rocket boosters, roughly duplicating the Delta M configuration. The plan was that Japan could move to producing more assemblies or entire stages natively, leveraging operational experience with the imported vehicle designs while still having a reliable vehicle available relatively quickly. By 1975, the project had come to fruition, with the N-1 beginning a seven-launch campaign from Tanegashima, which would last through 1982. Included in this were Japan’s first communication satellites, as well as probes to study the ionosphere. The program was reasonably successful, with only two failures--impressive compared to the early records of many other national space programs, and demonstrating the benefits of the Japanese plans to build on the experience of existing programs.
Even as the N-1 launch campaign was ongoing, work began in 1976 on the N-2, following on from N-1 with increased Japanese-built components and a full 9 solid rockets, allowing a payload of 2 tons to LEO or 730 kg to a geostationary transfer orbit (GTO). The plan was for the vehicle to be operational by 1981, at which point Japan would focus on its first complete upper stages to be paired with the existing Delta/Thor-based first stage. However, the American ELVRP I program threw a serious wrench into the works. As McDonnell-Douglas focused heavily on its Delta 4000 entrant in the competition, its interest in the older Thor-based Delta was declining. In particular, while McDonnell was willing to supply stages for N-2 under existing contract arrangements, future work would have to involve increased payments by Japan--either to support the Delta lines if McDonnell didn’t win the competition, or to preserve the Thor infrastructure in parallel with the Delta 4000 if (as it happened in 1978) McDonnell won. Japan was faced with a decision: pay the increased fees and continue along the Thor-based direction it had charted previously (which would be costly), move from focusing on native-built upper stages to a new Japanese lower stage (which would require abandoning or at least postponing the focus on upper stages that they had been building towards), or seizing the chance presented to them by the new Delta 4000. Deliberations and exploratory contract negotiations lasted almost three years, from 1978 to early 1981.
In the end, Japan decided to be ambitious, and move to a similarly license-built version of the Delta 4000, with a new Japanese-built upper stage replacing the American Centaur--perhaps motivated by the fact that they would have to spend substantially in any case and this option would offer more dramatic growth potential, perhaps due to the public support resulting from the upcoming flights of Japanese astronauts to the American Spacelab station, or perhaps some of both. Regardless of the motivation, the new vehicle--dubbed “H-1”--began development in 1981 with a planned entry into service in 1986. It will consist of the the new Delta 4000 first stage, with a Japanese-built hydrolox upper stage using natively designed-and-built engines. The roughly 6 ton capability of the vehicle will be sufficient for the Japanese to dual-launch some payloads that were being designed for the originally-planned improved Delta, and also enable larger and more capable satellites and perhaps even deep-space probes. The revised planning also called for an H-II vehicle to fly with a Japanese-built first stage by 1990, with a capability equalling or perhaps even exceeding the Delta 4000’s maximum 13 ton payload to LEO. If so, it would be another major success for the Japanese strategy, reaching near-parity with the basic launch capabilities of countries like the United States and the joint efforts of the European continent in just two short decades.
In addition to their launch vehicle development programs, NASDA was also working to build on its successes to expand its human spaceflight programs. The late 1981 flight of Katsuyama Hideki and the coming flights of two more astronauts to Spacelab seemed to show a natural path for increased Japanese participation in manned spaceflight. Thus, as NASA’s own studies were ongoing for post-Spacelab stations, NASDA also began examining the possibility of launching their own lab to such a station, perhaps on a NASA vehicle, and to negotiate a more long-standing agreement for seats, more like the European “fourth seat” on every Block III+ than the intermittent short-stays allowed by what would come to be the Spaceflight Participation Program. The established practice of barter would have Japan providing some hardware for the station that NASA desired in exchange for the launch of Japan’s own hardware. The question of what Japan might be able to provide was factored into NASA’s planning, much as NASA were factoring in European interest. However, the impetus provided by Vulkan would come to drive many of these plans rapidly from concepts to defined components and contracting.
Don't you just love the Soviets?
Making it so easy for others to get up and moving.
And if I've read the update right, that means we can see one, maybe two Kibo Modules on the SpaceHab successor. While NASDA - though I have heard of it being referred to as JAXA - gets to work on a new LV, with the new Delta 4000 1st stage giving them a lot more in the way of future growth potential. So I suppose getting a H-II ATV shouldn't be any more difficult for them here than IOTL.
I'll be especially interested in what the new Freedom Station looks like - since IIRC, the original design had to be scrapped when you and truth ditched TTL Titan V in favour of Saturn Multibody.
Making it so easy for others to get up and moving.
And if I've read the update right, that means we can see one, maybe two Kibo Modules on the SpaceHab successor. While NASDA - though I have heard of it being referred to as JAXA - gets to work on a new LV, with the new Delta 4000 1st stage giving them a lot more in the way of future growth potential. So I suppose getting a H-II ATV shouldn't be any more difficult for them here than IOTL.
I'll be especially interested in what the new Freedom Station looks like - since IIRC, the original design had to be scrapped when you and truth ditched TTL Titan V in favour of Saturn Multibody.
Until 2003, there was no JAXA--it was formed as a merger of their existing NASDA (which essentially dealt with LVs and manned flight), the National Aerospace Lab (NAL, which basically did the aero/astro research that makes up the first "A" in NASA's acronym) and the Institute of Space and Astronautical Science (ISAS, which did astronomy and astrophysics, including probes). You can see why JAXA's motto is "One JAXA!"
It's a lot like how ESA rolled up ESRO and ELDO into one organization, Japan just put it off for a staggeringly long time.Ah, to be precise, we had to ditch no fewer than five designs for Freedom, and three completed computer models. There was a first one from when we originally created the notion of a multicore kerolox LV with a ~24 ton base payload and ~72 ton upper limit, then a new one built with the Titan V's ~45 ton maximum capacity when we wrote ELVRP II's posts and Titan V started seeming to be making more sense, then another new one when Multibody came into the revised form with the flexibility added by the solids and re-won ELVRP II, all of which are slightly out of date in their own ways. It's why I no longer hint so far into the future--try re-reading the opening post and spotting all the stuff that ended up changing between that and the final canon posts! (It was written in the period where we were thinking Titan V would win ELVRP II, if you'll note.)
JAXA is the result of a 2003 meerger of NASDA and isas, well and another organization i dont remember. Isas, iirc, was responsible for the lambda and mu rockets, much smaller in size. More scout class?
Oh, and nasda had a partly commercial remit, iirc, while isas launched purely scientific payloads, mostly for universities. This is all from memory, so it could be wrong.
Yay! Well, good for Japan and good for the Delta 4000. In both timelines the Japanese were very effective in leveraging US experience to build up their own space program. Seems they are going for the gold in this one, though, assuming Delta 4000 works out well.
The space station program is shaping up to be very interesting indeed... I wonder if people still have visions of space stations just as the first step, with larger space bases still on the minds of some?
i.e. A LOT of redesign. And I suppose, if anything, it's gonna demonstrate the upshots of having a wide payload range for a relatively few interchangeable component parts. Something that Vulkan seemingly lacks - which, truth be told, I should've realised long before now.
Hello guys,
David Portree at Beyond Apollo (now relocated to Wired) has resumed efforts at a similar post-Apollo alternate timeline: http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/09/space-age-alternate-history-ii/#disqus_thread
The point of departure is not dissimilar. But instead of Apollo 18 being added, all the post Apollo 15 missions are cancelled (as Nixon originally desired) and the Saturn V's reserved for a series of Skylab-based stations, served by evolving CSMs and CSM-based resupply vehicles. The story is still embryonic, however...
As always, keep up the good work.
David Portree at Beyond Apollo (now relocated to Wired) has resumed efforts at a similar post-Apollo alternate timeline: http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/09/space-age-alternate-history-ii/#disqus_thread
The point of departure is not dissimilar. But instead of Apollo 18 being added, all the post Apollo 15 missions are cancelled (as Nixon originally desired) and the Saturn V's reserved for a series of Skylab-based stations, served by evolving CSMs and CSM-based resupply vehicles. The story is still embryonic, however...
As always, keep up the good work.
Michel, those are great! If no one minds, I think I may go ahead and canonize them. Any objections? (Also, name suggestion for the aardvark cartoon: Artie?)
If this is canon I think we can say he'll be a mainstay in political cartoons anytime NASA makes the news. Poor little aardvark running terrified along the ground as Sam the Eagle swoops in whenever there are budget cuts. Or an exhausted Sam carrying a bloated aardvark in his talons whenever anyone says the budget is too big.
It is a little funny that the "earth-pig" is the mascot for the space program.
It is a little funny that the "earth-pig" is the mascot for the space program.
I'll support that!
As for names? Not my best department. Artie being the best that I'd be able to do.
Arthur the aardvark. A la pbs series of the same name, and the marc brown books off which they are based.
Anachronistic, as im sure he hasnt published the first one yet, but the name is euphonous.
Edit. Apparently the first arthur book was published in 1976.
Anachronistic, as im sure he hasnt published the first one yet, but the name is euphonous.
Edit. Apparently the first arthur book was published in 1976.