The first Block III+ launch is in 1980 ...on its associated Saturn 1C which is the vehicle it was designed to fit, taking advantage of the 4-ton payload increase to add the MM for enough room for 5 people to comfortably live while in-transit to Spacelab.
OK, I wrongly telescoped the Multibody and Block III+ together into a package deal which they clearly are not. I think this rather underscores what I was saying, mainly to Michel Van--that it's much too early to be looking beyond III+ when that is just about to have its very first flight.
With a 66 percent boost in numbers of astronauts that can be sent up at once, no mean increment! Or a 300 percent boost in the number of non-"astronauts" in NASA pilot jock jargon, what they call "Mission Specialists." An even greater achievement--only half as many as STS could but it took a while for STS to work up to launching 8 people at once, and we've got 5 manned missions in the bag already, for 15 people orbiting who didn't OTL until after 1980. So it would take 5 fully manned STS missions to pull ahead, assuming Block III+ missions are launched at the same rate as STS was before the Challenger disaster OTL.
I'm guessing they may not keep up that pace, or they might since I hope a Saturn 1C/Block III+ launch is overall cheaper than an STS one worked out to actually be. And given your political foreshadowing, the pace will pick up.
...where Multibody isn't even selected for ELVRP II until 1981 and won't fly until roughly 1985/86.
Darn. Multibody is what really hooked me into believing passionately in this timeline, though actually the Block III+ was pretty exciting too, and now that at least is at hand!
There's another potential 3 or so tons available if/when they switch to M02, but that's not going to be online for a while, and like you said the natural evolution would be more crew through a larger CM (either larger diameter or a more Geminesque/Dragoneque sidewall to get more volume from the same heatshield diameter), but while that'd be nice it's a pretty serious change and Block III+ is still pretty new itself in 1982. NASA's budget isn't infinite, so there's likely to end up as a disconnect between what they like and what the budget can support.
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Actually I was saying sort of the opposite, supporting the idea we need not run ahead of ourselves too much just yet, by stressing that the Block III+ is itself a big step forward but pushing it any farther than that is asking for too much. We need a bigger rocket to put up anything bigger, and a bigger return capsule, which is absolutely necessary to launch more than 5 people at a time, is particularly heavier. Plus of course we'd have to be designing a completely new capsule. Designs for bigger Apollo CMs probably exist in abundance on paper, but the current design has a track record of success in about 20 missions so far--whatever else went wrong, the Block II and III CMs never failed. Even in the extreme emergency of Apollo 13, which IIRC carries over to this timeline, the CM delivered (as well as it could with its power and critical supplies crippled by the SM failure). Most of all it landed the 3 astronauts safely despite a rather jury-rigged and somewhat disrupted entry trajectory.
So going up to a bigger one, even a very conservative evolution of the existing design, is a new risk with new equipment. Part of the genius of Block III+ is that that one very crucial piece of the mission, while revamped internally, is externally exactly the same piece of hardware that landed all the previous Apollo astronauts safely. It's a known quantity, which is good for risk management and also good for manufacturing economics.
Reminding us that Block III+ is designed around Saturn 1C and not Multibody capabilities should as I said underscore my point that if NASA is going to dream of a bigger capsule for more people per mission (8 say, or 10) they're going to have to wait until at least M02 is available and man-rated, which is half a decade hence. If indeed 3 tonnes plus as much as they can scant the MM (when that MM has to provide for the needs of the extra people, or if foregone the CM has to be that much bigger) is even enough to expand the CM signifcantly. I suppose it would be, since the CM is IIRC about 5 tonnes, so making it 66 percent more massive should allow a fair volume increase. But of course if the bigger capsule has the same density as the standard Block II/III/III+ module then the area per mass of the heat shield is higher, so either the thing enters that much hotter and faster or some redesign of the basic shape is in order. It could be that we could increase the surface area by 66 percent with an extra 3 tonnes rather than increase the volume by that much--meaning extra volume, which is good since the 5 person load of the standard capsule leaves them scanty room and makes the MM mandatory. Still I would not be confident the extra 3 tonnes capacity will really allow for a dramatic increase in the CM size, whereas accepting the limit of 5 space travelers and using it for a big MM or lots of supplies for the station could have a more impressive impact.
I'm just saying, Block III+ is pretty darn good, we don't need more just yet!
I have been tempted to ask for upgrades in the Apollo CM TPS, to make it renewable, but I've already acknowledged that perhaps keeping the CMs one-use is good economics, since we don't want missions to fail due to overaged equipment retained in false economies. When we have a one-shot ablative TPS that has to be completely replaced anyway, the economics of reusing the rest of the capsule has to be very persuasive indeed; if we could reuse the heat shield too then investing in a reusable capsule would look a lot more attractive.
On one hand, the Block II standard ablative heat shield was designed for returns from Lunar missions, essentially at escape rather than orbital velocities; the energies to be disposed of in braking are twice as high for moon missions as for returns from orbit. So designing a fully or mostly reusable TPS (by mostly, I mean something like OTL STS tiles, but under a protective thin ablative coating that would have to be renewed each time) would be that much less challenging at least until very high orbit or translunar missions are again in the offing.
On the other hand, retaining the Block II type shield in the later blocks, even if it is overkill, strikes me as the kind of conservatism that is smart!
My guess is that if the mantra of reusabilty becomes fashionable in this timeline it will be after the Block III+'s have had a long service life and everyone is looking forward to something newer anyway. Say during Part III?
I'm settling down to enjoy Part II first!
