Eyes Turned Skywards

[Pipcard]

I'm hoping that some time in the future, Japan will have its own space capsule, similar to the cancelled-in-OTL Fuji spacecraft.

(More illustrations here)

 

[Bahamut-255]

I'm hoping that some time in the future, Japan will have its own space capsule, similar to the cancelled-in-OTL Fuji spacecraft.

That's very unlikely. The key reason being deep-rooted structural problems with their Economy that's going to make securing the finances necessary for developing and sustaining such an endeavour particularly difficult for them. In fact, to the best of my knowledge, building the H-II Cargo-Supply Craft IOTL for the ISS was a serious financial challenge for them.

 

[Pipcard]

That's very unlikely. The key reason being deep-rooted structural problems with their Economy that's going to make securing the finances necessary for developing and sustaining such an endeavour particularly difficult for them. In fact, to the best of my knowledge, building the H-II Cargo-Supply Craft IOTL for the ISS was a serious financial challenge for them.

Japan's GDP is currently rising right now IOTL, so maybe they could have a manned capsule by the late-2010s or 2020s ITTL?

 

[Bahamut-255]

Friggin' economics, how does it work?

Japan's GDP is currently rising right now IOTL, so maybe they could have a manned capsule by the late-2010s or 2020s ITTL?

The 1990's and a good chunk of the 2000's were a "Lost Decade" for Japan. Little-to-Zero Growth and Deflation meaning that the money needed for such a project simply couldn't be made available. And even now IOTL, they're rather strapped for cash IIRC.

 

[Athelstane]

I don't see the incentive for Japan to build a manned vehicle - money is tight, and they have adequate access to their own laboratory on Freedom using seats on Apollo. That leaves them in better shape than almost anyone else.

 

[Pipcard]

The 1990's and a good chunk of the 2000's were a "Lost Decade" for Japan. Little-to-Zero Growth and Deflation meaning that the money needed for such a project simply couldn't be made available. And even now IOTL, they're rather strapped for cash IIRC.

I don't see the incentive for Japan to build a manned vehicle - money is tight, and they have adequate access to their own laboratory on Freedom using seats on Apollo. That leaves them in better shape than almost anyone else.

Oh well. At least I can always envision a more extensive space program in my Japan-like country of Hatsunia, in which they had a manned capsule in 1995, and a ~100 tonne space station by 2013. No bad economic policies resulting in "collapsing bubbles" or "Lost Decades" or anything like that.

 

[Athelstane]

Oh well. At least I can always envision a more extensive space program in my Japan-like country of Hatsunia, in which they had a manned capsule in 1995, and a ~100 tonne space station by 2013. No bad economic policies resulting in "collapsing bubbles" or "Lost Decades" or anything like that.

In fairness, Japan's collapsed bubble economy collapsed mainly because of underlying demographics - their birth rate cratered earlier than almost everyone else - that shifted consumption and saving patterns in dramatic ways.

 

[Pipcard]

In fairness, Japan's collapsed bubble economy collapsed mainly because of underlying demographics - their birth rate cratered earlier than almost everyone else - that shifted consumption and saving patterns in dramatic ways.

Any source for this?

 

[Athelstane]

Any source for this?

Hello Pipcard,

There's a fair amount of literature on this now, actually...you can get the short version here by A.C.S. at The Economist, a longer version here, a broader piece at The Wilson Quarterly here.

It's a long-term problem, and one that makes big investments in risky, low-return ventures like manned space exploration less likely - entitlements for an aging population suck up a much big share of expenditures, and savings are being burned up rather than built up thanks to the same age cohort.

That said, I like the Fuji as well. But I think the authors are right that it's not likely to happen in this timeline, or any other where Japan's demographics are at all like ours.

 

[Michel Van]

“Houston, we’ve had a problem.”

the Alternate History Wiki show blank page
several Link list are gone

also in Eyes turn Skywards Wiki page.


Problem repaired

 

[Archibald]

Hello Pipcard,

There's a fair amount of literature on this now, actually...you can get the short version here by A.C.S. at The Economist, a longer version here, a broader piece at The Wilson Quarterly here.

It's a long-term problem, and one that makes big investments in risky, low-return ventures like manned space exploration less likely - entitlements for an aging population suck up a much big share of expenditures, and savings are being burned up rather than built up thanks to the same age cohort.

That said, I like the Fuji as well. But I think the authors are right that it's not likely to happen in this timeline, or any other where Japan's demographics are at all like ours.

Bordel de merde, France should send its excess of babies (TFR 2.02, and rising for two decades now) to Japan.
Life is unfair !

 

[Athelstane]

Bordel de merde, France should send its excess of babies (TFR 2.02, and rising for two decades now) to Japan.
Life is unfair !

Well, you know, the Japanese long ago made the decision not to allow any significant immigration, and they have stuck to that. Which is why they're hurting in a way that other western countries with low fertility rates are not - or at least not quite to the same degree.

Instead, they have opted for robots.

This was not as nonsensical a policy as it appears to most observers (though undoubtedly motivated in part by racism), and it has some real advantages - homogeneity makes for greater social cohesion, and Japan has no need to worry about its equivalent of banlieus or barrios. But the result is that its population is shrinking, and rapidly aging. This creates tremendous burdens that makes something like an aggressive manned space program a luxury that Japan simply can't afford.

As it is, Japan has a considerable space presence, including an orbital laboratory tended by Japanese astronauts. And that is nothing to sneeze at...even as we look wistfully at the Fuji capsules and infrastructure that could have been.

 

[Archibald]

It is not only a matter of migrants having a higher birth rate.
France still has a system aimed at filling the population gap with its century long ennemy, Germany. By 2045, the effort started in 1871 will bore fruit: France will have a population of 75 million, outnumbering Germany with its long declining TFR of 1.4 or so. Even if Germany is no longer the ennemy, of course.
Since 1871 the birth rate really slowled only two times: in 1935-39 when WWI 1.5 million KIA evidently had no children; and between 1973 and 1993 when TFR gradually slowed down (to 1.7 or so) before climbing again, full steam, to 2 or more today. And the worse France economy goes, the more babies. And yet everybody is worried about baby-boomers retirements.

This is just crazy.

 

[Pipcard]

So I realized that underpopulation can be just as bad as overpopulation. Thanks for the insight.

 

[nixonshead]

Morning all, here's your last Monday Illustrated Eyes for 2013

First off, with Tiangong becoming a permanent fixture and regular visits from other national cosmonauts and even tourists, Mir has become a second international space station.

 

[nixonshead]

Meanwhile, NASA take one step closer to the moon with test flights of the upgraded Apollo Block V.

 

[nixonshead]

The hard work on Project Artemis continues on the ground too, including training and test operations in the deserts of Arizona.

 

[nixonshead]

BTW, loved the update!

A 'housekeeping' question, I'm assuming the week-long Block V mission to Freedom was not classified as a full Expedition, so would it instead be numbered under the Artemis name? Perhaps Artemis 2, with the unmanned reentry test being Artemis 1?

 

[Bahamut-255]

One thing I noticed is just how much smaller (in terms of Area) the Apollo Solar Cells are with regards to the TKS ones - looks to be about half. I'd believe that the US make is superior in terms of efficiency, but I suspect it has a lot more to do with the respective rates of power consumption.

TKS would still be using Argon Analogue Computers right now IMHO, lacking the money to make the switch to Digital Computers - which occurred with Soyuz IOTL when the company in question ceased production of their Analogue Computers thereby forcing the change. And last I heard, Digital Computers can do the same for less than half the Wattage of an Analogue Equivalent.

As for the new Lunar Rover, proper backrests? Good seats? I think that would be appreciated. And are those wheels metalastic, or rigid?

 

[Athelstane]

You're warming my cockles this morning, Brainbin...really fantastic work, as always.

So has Mir had any onboard fires, or TKS's running into DOS labs yet? Inquiring minds want to know.