Extended Spanish Civil War

BurningWickerman

This is a ATL on the effect of a lengthened Spanish Civil War:

POD:
3;46 PM July 21, 1936.
One low level civil servant in the British Ministry of Defense, Ernest Brown sends this message too his boss.

With civil disturbance looming in Spain, might Her Majestys Government investigate the possibility of covertly engineering a situation in Spain that pits the twin menaces of Fascism and Communism against each other, to weaken each other.
The Italians and Germans are sending troops to the rebels aid in a few days time and no doubt the Soviet Union will attempt too arm the Popular Front.
Reply urgently. We must act quickly if we are too act.

5:47PM July 21, 1936
He receives this message from his boss:

Write report on risk assesment too brief tommorow morning. Keep this TOP-SECRET.

9:00 July 22, 1936
Ernest Brown briefs Minister Of Defence on possibility of OPERATION SHADOW

"I have proposed that the best way too put OPERATION SHADOW into action is too arm and train centerists and seperatist groups within the Popular Front.
The Popular Front is so disorganised it will fall apart into warring groups should it win anyway, thus making any Soviet control impossible. If popular front is defeated it will launch into a disorganised guerilla war drawing in fascist resources and attention.
At the moment both groups hold roughly half of Spain. The Republicans hold Catalonia and parts of Basque and the rebels hold Spanish Morroco, South-East Spain and parts of North East Spain and island chains.
Are best chance is too arm Basque and Catalonian nationalists over the french-Spanish border. We will need France's co-operation in this though."

The minister of defence agrees to this and prepares OPERATION SHADOW and opens a communication too his french counterpart.

14:52 July 22
French head of defence confirms that they were planning on giving some small arms, tanks and old airplanes too the Republicans.
He agrees to support OPERATION SHADOW and not give any overt aid in the near future.

17:04 July 22
The british minister of defence asks the prime minister for backing of OPERATION SHADOW. Chamberlain is wary of antagonising the Germans but he is promised that the operation will be such that the weapons and machinery can never be traced back too Britain. He is also given the impression that this is a french plan that they will go ahead with with or without the british.
The french head of defence also gets permission to change their policy to the joint Anglo-French OPERATION SHADOW.

July 23
A selection of British and French tanks are stripped down and altered too look like Soviet tanks from a distance. They are flown too a small military base in South France.

The Nationalists declare a new government which they call 'Junta de Defensa Nacional'. It is instantly recognised by the German and Italian governments.

July 26
A assortment of planes from Italy and Germany ferry troops across from Spanish Morroco too mainland spain.

July 27
Small arms are flown from South France too Pamplona, Basque in disguised planes.
15 disguised tanks are moved over a small Mountain pass and given to Catalonian seperatists and militant trade union forces in Barcelona.

Chamberlain makes a plea for non-intervention in the Spanish Civil War, and Britain and France from the Committe for Non-Intervention.

He also increases the budget for OPERATION SHADOW.

July 28
A shipment of arms and motorised vechicles from GB and France reaches Madrid.

July 29
A Republican force departs from Madrid and attacks the isolated Nationalist held town of Toledo.
The Nationalist forces manage too hold off the arrack in Toledo but suffer massive losses. Republican forces suffer light damage and decide too seige the city instead.

July 30
A few plain, old fighter planes are sent too the forces in Minorca.



I'll add more tommorow and will try and get some maps up when if figure out this picture posting system.
Comments would be good.
 

Condottiero

Toledo was not on fascist hands at the beginning of the war (it was just the Alcazar), while Pamplona was.

I do not think giving weapons to nationalists would change the fate of the war. In fact they had the best equipment, but it was used in parallel civil wars in which anarchists, nationalists and communists killed each other forgetting the fascists. The only solution would have been to equip the government's army.
 

Karlos

Well, my two cents just to clarify... In our civil war, Franco's forces were called Nationals, or fascists, or rebels. The governement troops were the republicans, and among them were many groups non-controlled by the governement, mainly anarchists. The catalan and basque groups are called nationalists, and they fought for the Republic, if their ultimate goal was the independence of their lands.
Sending some tanks would do almost nothing to the republicans. They got hundreds of soviet tanks, who where among the best of their time. They needed artillery, planes, and above all organization. The british and french could have given support to the non-communist elements of the spanish republic, as they were asked for, but they were too afraid of the communist and anarchist militias. The problem was that those same militias were the ones that saved the republicans from falling in the first place, so the spanish governement could not get rid of them. So, their only option was to approach Stalin, and it made the distance with London even greater.
 

Condottiero

In my previous posting by "nationalists" I meant the basques and the catalans, not the fascist/"nacionales"/rebel side.

I think the division and deep differences between the different groups in the republican/government side hindered the government enormously.
 

Hendryk

Banned
Regardless of the means, I think there is a lot of potential in an ATL that focuses on a longer Spanish civil war. The way I see it, if the Republican side had managed to hold off the Nationalists just a few months longer, the civil war would have dovetailed with the beginning of WW2. The Germans and Italians, by September 1939 at war against France and Britain, would have pressured Franco into joining the Axis in order to open a Pyrenean front and force the Allies to divert some of their strength to the Iberian theater. This alone could have a big influence on the later turnout of the war in Europe.
An Axis Spain would among other things have made Allied control of the Atlantic more difficult by providing U-boot harbors and airports for the Third Reich; it would have made the African theater much trickier for the Allies (perhaps interdicting the Mediterranean altogether by invading Gibraltar); and after the Normandy invasion could have provided critical strategic depth to the southwest for the Wehrmacht. Just a few ideas.
Now, as for the way to get there: my suggestion would be an alteration of the ideological makeup of the Republican side, so that, for example, the Communists and Anarchists don't waste their strength fighting each other.
On a related note, a good movie on the Spanish civil war is "Land and Freedom" by Ken Loach.
 

Karlos

The problem is that UK felt very comfortable with the spanish dictatorship, which wasn't any kind of treat for them, as it showed during and after the Spanish Civil War. I think that they would do nothing against Franco even if WWII starts, as long as there are no sizeable german forces in Spain. Italians are not a problem, as Italy was not at war until may 1940. So Franco has got all the phony war months to finish off the republicans.
OTOH, a more resolved left-wing french governement could have helped the republicans if they were still fighting in sept. 1939. Just allowing all the weapons at the border to get into Catalonia would have helped. When the republica fell, after the defeat at El Ebro, it still had a good part of spanish territory and a sizeable army at the centre of the country. It was just pointless to keep on fighting, but some wanted to, and they could have with support from abroad. Essentialy, the Spanish republic was left alone to die by everybody else.
 

BurningWickerman

Toledo was not on fascist hands at the beginning of the war (it was just the Alcazar), while Pamplona was.
Click to expand...

I'll change that bit in a redraft in a bit.
I based that on the map I'll check that up.

I do not think giving weapons to nationalists would change the fate of the war. In fact they had the best equipment, but it was used in parallel civil wars in which anarchists, nationalists and communists killed each other forgetting the fascists.
Click to expand...

Now, as for the way to get there: my suggestion would be an alteration of the ideological makeup of the Republican side, so that, for example, the Communists and Anarchists don't waste their strength fighting each other.
Click to expand...

I think the division and deep differences between the different groups in the republican/government side hindered the government enormously.
Click to expand...

Im thinking that the anarchists will get crushed pretty soon on and the Republican/Catalonian/Basques and Communist powers will diverge properly fairly early.
The Republicans force funded by France/GB more and more overtly, communists by the Soviet Union and the Nationalists still by Germany and Italy.
The division between the popular front will in the short term severly weaker but the influx of foreign troops to all sides will level the pitch.
The nationalists will get less rural help and might side with the republicans more as they officially denounce the communists.
The increased unity will help organsation of both republican and communist troops and change the fate however.



The british and french could have given support to the non-communist elements of the spanish republic, as they were asked for, but they were too afraid of the communist and anarchist militias. The problem was that those same militias were the ones that saved the republicans from falling in the first place, so the spanish governement could not get rid of them. So, their only option was to approach Stalin, and it made the distance with London even greater.
Click to expand...

The french gave aid too the republicans at the very start, just a few old planes in OTL. They were forced too back down by GB. Apparently the french support gave massive moral too the republican soldiers for that period though. The communists being denounced, it wouldn't have too force GB and the Soviet Union to be united.
I might extend the POD a bit too a GB-Germany misunderstanding that makes Chamberlain more distrustful.

Regardless of the means, I think there is a lot of potential in an ATL that focuses on a longer Spanish civil war. The way I see it, if the Republican side had managed to hold off the Nationalists just a few months longer, the civil war would have dovetailed with the beginning of WW2.
Click to expand...

Yeh, Im thinking this could completly change the face of WW2 in an very unexpected way.
 

BurningWickerman

The redrafted start.

POD: April 14 1936
The German ambassador is in talks about the disregard of the Treaty of Versailles by the Reich. The translator makes a mistake and the German ambassador is given the impression that allies might use the threat of military action too enforce the treaty. He tells the British official that if "British soldiers step on German soil they will be slaughtered like dogs".
Message quickly gets to the houses of parliament that the Germans have been making threats too the British forces. Theirs an uproar and Chamberlain immediatly opens up talks with Hitler. The situation is quickly defused and Chamberlain officially call it a misunderstanding. The Parliament is still tense though and the population scared.

3:46 PM July 21, 1936.
One low level civil servant in the British Ministry of Defense, Ernest Brown sends this message too his boss.

With civil disturbance looming in Spain, might Her Majestys Government investigate the possibility of covertly engineering a situation in Spain that pits the twin menaces of Fascism and Communism against each other, to weaken each other.
The Italians and Germans are sending troops to the rebels aid in a few days time and no doubt the Soviet Union will attempt too arm the Popular Front.
Reply urgently. We must act quickly if we are too act.

5:47PM July 21, 1936
He receives this message from his boss:

Write report on risk assesment too brief tommorow morning. Keep this TOP-SECRET.

9:00 July 22, 1936
Ernest Brown briefs Minister Of Defence on possibility of OPERATION SHADOW

"I have proposed that the best way too put OPERATION SHADOW into action is too arm and train centerists and seperatist groups within the Popular Front.
The Popular Front is so disorganised it will fall apart into warring groups should it win anyway, thus making any Soviet control impossible. If popular front is defeated it will launch into a disorganised guerilla war drawing in fascist resources and attention.
At the moment both groups hold roughly half of Spain. The Republicans hold Catalonia and parts of Basque and the rebels hold Spanish Morroco, South-East Spain and parts of North East Spain and island chains.
Are best chance is too arm Basque and Catalonian nationalists over the french-Spanish border. We will need France's co-operation in this though."

The minister of defence agrees to this and prepares OPERATION SHADOW and opens a communication too his french counterpart.

14:52 July 22
French head of defence confirms that they were planning on giving some small arms, tanks and old airplanes too the Republicans.
He agrees to support OPERATION SHADOW and not give any overt aid in the near future.

17:04 July 22
The british minister of defence asks the prime minister for backing of OPERATION SHADOW. Chamberlain is wary of antagonising the Germans but he is promised that the operation will be such that the weapons and machinery can never be traced back too Britain. He is also given the impression that this is a french plan that they will go ahead with with or without the british.
The french head of defence also gets permission to change their policy to the joint Anglo-French OPERATION SHADOW.

July 23
A selection of British and French tanks are stripped down and altered too look like Soviet tanks from a distance. They are flown too a small military base in South France.

The Nationalists declare a new government which they call 'Junta de Defensa Nacional'. It is instantly recognised by the German and Italian governments.

July 26
A assortment of planes from Italy and Germany ferry troops across from Spanish Morroco too mainland spain.

July 27
Small arms are flown from South France too Pamplona, Basque in disguised planes.
15 disguised tanks are moved over a small Mountain pass and given to Catalonian seperatists and militant trade union forces in Barcelona.

Chamberlain makes a plea for non-intervention in the Spanish Civil War, and Britain and France from the Committe for Non-Intervention.

He also increases the budget for OPERATION SHADOW.

July 28
A shipment of arms and motorised vechicles from GB and France reaches Madrid.

July 29
Republican forces attack small pockets of resistance is Republican controlled areas. They destroy all remaining Nationalist uprisings in Republican controlled territory.

July 30
A few plain, old fighter planes are sent too the forces in Minorca.
 

BurningWickerman

August 1 1936
50 more tanks are smuggled from France and given too Basque nationalists in Santander.
Italy steps up its military backing of the nationalists by sending air force fighter and bombing planes. Several crash in french morroco alerting the allies too axis armament.
A tank regiment destroys the nationalist holding in Alacazar de Toledo with heavy civilian causualities. A radio message from minutes before the complete destruction of the remaining nationalists in the city tells Nationalists that Soviets have sent tanks too spain.

August 2 1936
Hitler warns Stalin not too send troops into Spain.
Stalin immediatly draws up plans to arm communists in Spain.

August 3
A doubled pronged assault from Catalonia and Basque forces takes back West North Spain by attacking forces in the nationalist held city of Saragossa.
Heavy losses on both sides but it in the end it is a descisive victory for the republican forces linking up Basque to Republican Spain.

August 5
Nationalist forces start a massive drive towards Madrid savaging a few cities on the way.

August 8
Nationalist forces stop about 90 miles from madrid as the supply line is destroyed by a attack by Republican forces bombers supplied by France and Great Britain.

August 9
Soviet Union troops land in Valencia announcing their intention to help the communist uprising in the city. Local republican commanders are amazed as Soviets have anarchist and republican militias line dup and shot.

August 10
Great Britain, France, Italy and Germany condemn the Soviet invasion.

GB and France are secretly delighted that OPERATION SHADOW is working and increase the shipment of arms.

August 11
The nationalists withdraw from their attack on Madrid as advancing Republican troops cut off small pockets of front line troops and start massing troops and ships in Cadiz. They leave a medium strength line of defence from Coroba too the Portugese border.

August 12
José Giral expels communist members of the republican forces. Small communist uprisings by militias start around the Republican areas, most are put down swiftly but a few control minor cities.
The soviets make large gains east and south of valencia against bemused republican forces.

August 13
Republican forces seize Majorica to heavy resistance, however, they have air superiority and Italian/German planes are absent from the skies. They force Nationalist forces too retreat too the interior of the island.

Republican forces mass just north of Valencia.

A set of German warships arrive in Cadiz and start loading with spanish troops.

August 14
A large communist uprising in Malaga is brutally put down by Republican forces.

The Nationalist fleet departs from Cadiz.

August 15
Several high status communists in Madrid are murdered by Republican forces.
 
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