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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourth_Chinese_domination_of_Vietnam

In OTL, the fourth Chinese domination of Vietnam ended in the 1420s during the Ming dynasty

In OTL, there would not be another Chinese domination of Vietnam, just tributary relations

What if instead, the Ming held Vietnam it for its dynastic life?.

What could enable this to happen, and what would be the consequences post-Mingdynasty? If there is a Manchu conquest, are they likely to inherit Vietnam?
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