Explosion heard around the world... Or Elser succeeds
- Thread starter Shaby
- Start date
Oh dear. Hiding bad news from Stalin. Not a good idea. Stalin WILL hear about it, and if Beria hasn't fixed the situation by the time that happens, he will discover the joys of the Lubjanka from the inside. Of course, Beria is probably planning just to delay the news until he CAN fix it - if he can. Still, pretty darn risky.
Donald Reaver
Donor
If he can fix it, other poor option is going back to Moscow and taking out Stalin first. I doubt he would survive the fall out of that though even if he succeeded.
Agreed. I think even at this point Beria is too hated to survive long. He may actually be better literally heading south and surrendering to the British or French.
Yerevan, Armenia, HQ of the Transcaucasian front
Transcaucasian front consisted of four armies - 47th, 53rd, 29th and 30th. Two of those, 29th and 30th would attack into Iraq and southeastern Turkey, one (53rd) would attack towards Tabriz and one (47th) towards Trabzon.
The most important axis of attack would be the advance down the rivers of Euphrates and Tigris. Budyonny plans were to reach Mosul in two weeks and Baghdad in three with his central force. From there to Basra would take another week, according to the plans of his staff, thus bringing the entire campaign to conclusion in a month.
Attacks in other directions were expected to take a similar amount of time. The advance to Teheran would take his 47th Army less than fortnight and, unless the situation changed and made further advance unnecessary, another month and a half to reach the Straight of Hormuz. Meanwhile, an advance towards Tabriz and subsequent capture of the city would threaten Ankara and force the Turks to cease hostilities.
At the spearhead of each army was a cavalry corps, while four mechanized corps formations were designated as reserves and would follow up the cavalry in order to occupy territory and secure against any possible insurections or counterattacks by the Allied forces, as well to mop up centers of enemy resistance the cavalry was to bypass.
The Front was supported by the 3rd Air Army, whose airplanes took off at the first sight of light on the morning of May 15th. Of the 450 aircraft allocated to the 3rd Army, 350 departed towards their targets in Iraq. The rest deployed to protect the airfields against possible attack by Allied air forces.
At approximately 4 o'clock, the thunderlike rumble of the Soviet artillery announced the beginning of the Soviet offensive into the Middle East.
Cairo, Egypt
The reconnaissance reports from the previous week caused serious concerns in the Middle East Command. It was obvious the Soviets have amassed troops in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. Countless trains have been recorded in transit across the few railroads leading into area and a few Soviet airplanes were intercepted, no doubt in reconnaissance missions.
The trouble is General Wilson, now in command of the theater, had almost no forces to deploy against this threat. The two divisions in Egypt and one in Palestine were held as a general reserve for the troops deployed in Crimea. The French also held two divisions in Syria and Iran possessed a military 120.000 strong, though of questionable quality. Turkish Army also deployed some of its military on the eastern border and expected to be able to defend for some time, given favorable terrain.
Then, the news came that the Red Army has initiated the offensive. Simultaneously, air bases in Iraq came under attack by the Soviet air force. While there were two squadrons of Gladiators in the air, they were unable to stop the large Soviet bomber formations. Despite the inaccuracy of the bombing, the air bases suffered a lot of damage, and a number of aircraft were damaged. Fortunately, dispersion of the bombers worked and out of more than 150 bombers, only 20 were damaged beyond repair. The runways were cratered, but it was easy to fix.
It was the ground offensive that really worried the British. The Soviet formations quickly overwhelmed weak defensive line and advanced over 20 km within the first day, despite the very inhospitable terrain.
Transcaucasian front consisted of four armies - 47th, 53rd, 29th and 30th. Two of those, 29th and 30th would attack into Iraq and southeastern Turkey, one (53rd) would attack towards Tabriz and one (47th) towards Trabzon.
The most important axis of attack would be the advance down the rivers of Euphrates and Tigris. Budyonny plans were to reach Mosul in two weeks and Baghdad in three with his central force. From there to Basra would take another week, according to the plans of his staff, thus bringing the entire campaign to conclusion in a month.
Attacks in other directions were expected to take a similar amount of time. The advance to Teheran would take his 47th Army less than fortnight and, unless the situation changed and made further advance unnecessary, another month and a half to reach the Straight of Hormuz. Meanwhile, an advance towards Tabriz and subsequent capture of the city would threaten Ankara and force the Turks to cease hostilities.
At the spearhead of each army was a cavalry corps, while four mechanized corps formations were designated as reserves and would follow up the cavalry in order to occupy territory and secure against any possible insurections or counterattacks by the Allied forces, as well to mop up centers of enemy resistance the cavalry was to bypass.
The Front was supported by the 3rd Air Army, whose airplanes took off at the first sight of light on the morning of May 15th. Of the 450 aircraft allocated to the 3rd Army, 350 departed towards their targets in Iraq. The rest deployed to protect the airfields against possible attack by Allied air forces.
At approximately 4 o'clock, the thunderlike rumble of the Soviet artillery announced the beginning of the Soviet offensive into the Middle East.
Cairo, Egypt
The reconnaissance reports from the previous week caused serious concerns in the Middle East Command. It was obvious the Soviets have amassed troops in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. Countless trains have been recorded in transit across the few railroads leading into area and a few Soviet airplanes were intercepted, no doubt in reconnaissance missions.
The trouble is General Wilson, now in command of the theater, had almost no forces to deploy against this threat. The two divisions in Egypt and one in Palestine were held as a general reserve for the troops deployed in Crimea. The French also held two divisions in Syria and Iran possessed a military 120.000 strong, though of questionable quality. Turkish Army also deployed some of its military on the eastern border and expected to be able to defend for some time, given favorable terrain.
Then, the news came that the Red Army has initiated the offensive. Simultaneously, air bases in Iraq came under attack by the Soviet air force. While there were two squadrons of Gladiators in the air, they were unable to stop the large Soviet bomber formations. Despite the inaccuracy of the bombing, the air bases suffered a lot of damage, and a number of aircraft were damaged. Fortunately, dispersion of the bombers worked and out of more than 150 bombers, only 20 were damaged beyond repair. The runways were cratered, but it was easy to fix.
It was the ground offensive that really worried the British. The Soviet formations quickly overwhelmed weak defensive line and advanced over 20 km within the first day, despite the very inhospitable terrain.
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May 15th, late night, Berlin, OKW
One of the teleprinters in the Oberkommando der Wehrmacht started chirping and the paper, with densely packed letters came out within a few seconds. Initially the operator wanted to tag it with low priority, as it came from the Foreign Office. However, the duty officer, who stood nearby took it and glanced through it. He immediately summoned the sergeant to take it to the office of General Warlimont.
General Warlimont read the news a few minutes later and decided to notify general Keitel. He entered the office of the General and found both Keitel and Jodl there. Without any preamble, Warlimont announced:
"Turkey has been attacked by the Red Army. Heavy Soviet forces are advancing across the eastern border and threatening to capture Trabzon. The Turkish government has called upon their allies to help, according to the article 4. of the Mutual Defense Treaty."
His announcement was met with silence and shock from the two general officers.
OKW has just been officially designated as the agency to handle the military cooperation within the treaty framework. Keitel and Jodl didn't know even where to begin. Keitel called for his aide and ordered him to drive to OKH and summon von Brauchitsch and Halder. He also rang the communication section and ordered them to contact the Turkish General staff and establish a preliminary estimate of what they needed.
May 16th, early morning, Yerevan, Transcaucasian Front HQ
Marshal Budyonny Read the reports that started coming to the command post as the operation Southern Star commenced. The initial reports sketched a favourable picture. The 47th Army managed to brush aside Turkish rearguard and advance over 15 km from their starting line and stopped to bring the artillery and consolidate the positions for a renewed attack in two days. The army was expected to cover 189 km to Trabzon in less than a week and three days were allotted to capturing the city itself. It was only possible to advance through a narrow front, 20 to 40 km wide stretching from the Black Sea to the mountains and narrowing in the westerly direction. It made the problem of advancing both easier and harder for the 47th Army. Easier because the front narrowed and enabling the army to concentrate as it advanced. However, it also was harder because it made the defense easier. Soviet commander hoped the things would even out.
29th and 30th Army advanced in divergent direction and managed to sustain a 20 km advance on the first day. Initially, they also met only light rearguards left behind to wreck what existed of the infrastructure and retreat. Despite the fact that many road and railway bridges, as well as tunnels were destroyed, the Red Army advanced. Budyonny smiled as he read the report and thought that Red Army ingenuity knew no bounds. He sent an order to proceed with the attacks, according to the plan.
53rd Army advanced some 25 km from their starting point in the small border town of Cuffa and by nightfall did not reach any town or village worthy of note. They advanced down the single road across a barren landscape. Their initial target was around 100 km further south. So far they met only token resistance of the border guards, which was brushed away with ease. The Red Army advanced facing only a few indifferent inhabitants, who offered to sell tokens or water to the passing soldiers, scattering when threatened with guns.
One of the teleprinters in the Oberkommando der Wehrmacht started chirping and the paper, with densely packed letters came out within a few seconds. Initially the operator wanted to tag it with low priority, as it came from the Foreign Office. However, the duty officer, who stood nearby took it and glanced through it. He immediately summoned the sergeant to take it to the office of General Warlimont.
General Warlimont read the news a few minutes later and decided to notify general Keitel. He entered the office of the General and found both Keitel and Jodl there. Without any preamble, Warlimont announced:
"Turkey has been attacked by the Red Army. Heavy Soviet forces are advancing across the eastern border and threatening to capture Trabzon. The Turkish government has called upon their allies to help, according to the article 4. of the Mutual Defense Treaty."
His announcement was met with silence and shock from the two general officers.
OKW has just been officially designated as the agency to handle the military cooperation within the treaty framework. Keitel and Jodl didn't know even where to begin. Keitel called for his aide and ordered him to drive to OKH and summon von Brauchitsch and Halder. He also rang the communication section and ordered them to contact the Turkish General staff and establish a preliminary estimate of what they needed.
May 16th, early morning, Yerevan, Transcaucasian Front HQ
Marshal Budyonny Read the reports that started coming to the command post as the operation Southern Star commenced. The initial reports sketched a favourable picture. The 47th Army managed to brush aside Turkish rearguard and advance over 15 km from their starting line and stopped to bring the artillery and consolidate the positions for a renewed attack in two days. The army was expected to cover 189 km to Trabzon in less than a week and three days were allotted to capturing the city itself. It was only possible to advance through a narrow front, 20 to 40 km wide stretching from the Black Sea to the mountains and narrowing in the westerly direction. It made the problem of advancing both easier and harder for the 47th Army. Easier because the front narrowed and enabling the army to concentrate as it advanced. However, it also was harder because it made the defense easier. Soviet commander hoped the things would even out.
29th and 30th Army advanced in divergent direction and managed to sustain a 20 km advance on the first day. Initially, they also met only light rearguards left behind to wreck what existed of the infrastructure and retreat. Despite the fact that many road and railway bridges, as well as tunnels were destroyed, the Red Army advanced. Budyonny smiled as he read the report and thought that Red Army ingenuity knew no bounds. He sent an order to proceed with the attacks, according to the plan.
53rd Army advanced some 25 km from their starting point in the small border town of Cuffa and by nightfall did not reach any town or village worthy of note. They advanced down the single road across a barren landscape. Their initial target was around 100 km further south. So far they met only token resistance of the border guards, which was brushed away with ease. The Red Army advanced facing only a few indifferent inhabitants, who offered to sell tokens or water to the passing soldiers, scattering when threatened with guns.
Thats a lightning out of the blue sky
The update itself - and not whats described inside
The update itself - and not whats described inside
It is, but the Red Army is already overstretched. And parts of the Ukraine seems to be a powderkeg for the Soviet Union.
ITTL, the German Landser will proof himself worthy of the bread and salt he got presented when invading Stalin's empire.
abc123
Banned
I wonder- what happens with the Kriegsmarine? Would they build H-39 battleships, last 2 Admiral Hipper-heavy cruisers ( did they sold Lutzov to the USSR ), what about M-class light cruiser, what about Type VII submarines, Type 1936A destroyers etc, O-class battlecruisers, Graf Zeppelin-carrier etc.?
Tyr Anazasi
Banned
Göring would have had to reduce the spending of the Wehrmacht to re-balance the budget. Thus it means there have to be cuts.
These ships should be "safe":
Bismarck
Tirpitz
Graf Zeppelin
Prinz Eugen
Seydlitz
Lützow (she was sold in 1940 and thus should still be German here)
Type 1936A class DD
These ships will likely be ordered:
Type 1939 fleet torpedo boats
Type 1940 M-Boats
Type 1939 S-Boats
As for more, one has to see how much money will be available.
The need is there for cruisers, destroyers and carriers.
Uboats I excluded. 50 were built in 1940 and I guess due to the situation they will likely be built as well.
These ships should be "safe":
Bismarck
Tirpitz
Graf Zeppelin
Prinz Eugen
Seydlitz
Lützow (she was sold in 1940 and thus should still be German here)
Type 1936A class DD
These ships will likely be ordered:
Type 1939 fleet torpedo boats
Type 1940 M-Boats
Type 1939 S-Boats
As for more, one has to see how much money will be available.
The need is there for cruisers, destroyers and carriers.
Uboats I excluded. 50 were built in 1940 and I guess due to the situation they will likely be built as well.
With how the situation is devolving in regards to Russia and the very understandable deep distrust that the British & French have for Germany in TTL which remains fascist. Into this you have Goring's enormous ego, the mutual defense treaty with most of Eastern Europe and what has become a proxy war in Romania.
It's predictable that Goring is going to make some sort of grand gesture. Something to the effect of declaring in an international broadcast that he's building a shield to protect of values of freedom and liberty in Europe. He's going to do this knowing full well what an ironic load of bovine excrement that this is. The unexpected rub will be that people will believe it and expect delivery on it. Pure poison for the survival of such a regime.
It's predictable that Goring is going to make some sort of grand gesture. Something to the effect of declaring in an international broadcast that he's building a shield to protect of values of freedom and liberty in Europe. He's going to do this knowing full well what an ironic load of bovine excrement that this is. The unexpected rub will be that people will believe it and expect delivery on it. Pure poison for the survival of such a regime.
What happens though if sometime after Germany enters the war, the Soviet Union collapses and admits defeat? Might not Germany and Goering get most of the credit even if undeserved?
Classic case of doing the right thing for all the wrong reasons. Post war Goring is going to have a major problem on his hands. Getting between the public and their aspirations is a very uncomfortable place to be politically.
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Beyond observations of the politics there remain several technical observations.
The first several revolve around the early contact with the Russian T-34. This would cause every design in the pipeline to need to be reevaluated. The first project to be effected would be Panzer VI Tiger. It being the natural extension of the Panzer III/IV series. The heavy vertical armor is a reflection of this. The design teams, who were on the verge of starting a prototype would need to basically start over from scratch. This could pose a problem by creating another delay in the project. But if it results in the Konigstiger going directly into production it would actually be a worthwhile trade off.
The other aspect is that in OTL a suitable engine proved elusive for both the Tiger and Panther tanks. The T-34s engine, a supercharged V-12 diesel that while it shouldn't be copied directly does point towards a practical way forward. Also with less political interference, both tanks could be simpler, lighter designs.
The treaty that ended WW2 before it spread beyond Poland in TTL will also have an impact moving forward. That is until it gets inevitably thrown out with "Take it up with Stalin" the stated reason for that action. In the mean time it's the same engineers, military officers and politicians who had spent the prior two decades pushing novel technology and playing shell games to get around the previous treaties. So the Schutzenpanzer (SPz) concept (IFV) could make it's appearance a decade or so early. Other vehicles that proved difficult to define such as the StuG III/IV series could see their ambiguity become an advantage, even if it's the result of an internal debate within the Heer.
At the same time there is an awareness within the OKW of what the implications of a war with Russia. The Romanian conflict should be making clear that in any conflict the Heer and the Luftwaffe will have to expect being outnumbered. The classic Russian advantages of Winter and mud will come into play. Weapons and equipment will need to reflect this reality.
The first several revolve around the early contact with the Russian T-34. This would cause every design in the pipeline to need to be reevaluated. The first project to be effected would be Panzer VI Tiger. It being the natural extension of the Panzer III/IV series. The heavy vertical armor is a reflection of this. The design teams, who were on the verge of starting a prototype would need to basically start over from scratch. This could pose a problem by creating another delay in the project. But if it results in the Konigstiger going directly into production it would actually be a worthwhile trade off.
The other aspect is that in OTL a suitable engine proved elusive for both the Tiger and Panther tanks. The T-34s engine, a supercharged V-12 diesel that while it shouldn't be copied directly does point towards a practical way forward. Also with less political interference, both tanks could be simpler, lighter designs.
The treaty that ended WW2 before it spread beyond Poland in TTL will also have an impact moving forward. That is until it gets inevitably thrown out with "Take it up with Stalin" the stated reason for that action. In the mean time it's the same engineers, military officers and politicians who had spent the prior two decades pushing novel technology and playing shell games to get around the previous treaties. So the Schutzenpanzer (SPz) concept (IFV) could make it's appearance a decade or so early. Other vehicles that proved difficult to define such as the StuG III/IV series could see their ambiguity become an advantage, even if it's the result of an internal debate within the Heer.
At the same time there is an awareness within the OKW of what the implications of a war with Russia. The Romanian conflict should be making clear that in any conflict the Heer and the Luftwaffe will have to expect being outnumbered. The classic Russian advantages of Winter and mud will come into play. Weapons and equipment will need to reflect this reality.
Different from OTL Wehrmacht Strategy
One should bear in mind, that the way the Wehrmacht would handle a war with Soviet Russia would most probably be completely different from OTL.
Its only action would have been the campaign in Poland; which was a successful Blitzkrieg. However, OTL's evaluation of the three-week-victory assessed that this was rather due to the weak Polish equipment, the general superiority of the German soldier and that the German starting positions were favourable.
That's how the designs for a campaign in the West had for months been merely an update on the Schlieffen-plan. Manstein's innovative (and risky) ideas would have been shelved if not by coincidence.
Additionally, the Wehrmacht wouldn't have been in "victory-disease-mode" after the campaigns in Scandinavia, Benelux/France and on the Balkans.
Thus, any planning for an Eastern theatre would probably look more closely like WW1. Limited operational scope, a strategy based on attrition vs the Red Army, a good care concerning the realities of logistics.
There is also a chance that the treatment of the nations on occupied ground and especially of the POWs would be fundamentally different, i.e. of course better (worse is hardly possible). Of course, Göring's Germany wouldn't bring them democracy....but fascist puppet regimes closely tied to Berlin. Would people like it? Not enthusiastically, but it might at least be regarded as better than Stalinism, at least in the short- and mediuim run. If the people would know OTL....they'd love their fate.
One should bear in mind, that the way the Wehrmacht would handle a war with Soviet Russia would most probably be completely different from OTL.
Its only action would have been the campaign in Poland; which was a successful Blitzkrieg. However, OTL's evaluation of the three-week-victory assessed that this was rather due to the weak Polish equipment, the general superiority of the German soldier and that the German starting positions were favourable.
That's how the designs for a campaign in the West had for months been merely an update on the Schlieffen-plan. Manstein's innovative (and risky) ideas would have been shelved if not by coincidence.
Additionally, the Wehrmacht wouldn't have been in "victory-disease-mode" after the campaigns in Scandinavia, Benelux/France and on the Balkans.
Thus, any planning for an Eastern theatre would probably look more closely like WW1. Limited operational scope, a strategy based on attrition vs the Red Army, a good care concerning the realities of logistics.
There is also a chance that the treatment of the nations on occupied ground and especially of the POWs would be fundamentally different, i.e. of course better (worse is hardly possible). Of course, Göring's Germany wouldn't bring them democracy....but fascist puppet regimes closely tied to Berlin. Would people like it? Not enthusiastically, but it might at least be regarded as better than Stalinism, at least in the short- and mediuim run. If the people would know OTL....they'd love their fate.