Well, that's a lot of dead butterflies.
I think this whole concept of 'axial' religions is very Abrahamic in worldview, failing to acknowledge that religion doesn't work the same way everywhere. Buddhism, for instance, is not really a religion per se, but rather a school (in fact several schools) of philosophy, which overlays a wide variety of preexisting 'pre-axial' religious systems. The same is true of Confucianism and Daoism. I think, that in the abscence of Christianity the religious structure of the Mediterranean world is better modelled by that of China than that of otl Europe. Several major and many more minor philosophical schools overlaying a vast panopoly of localised and consantly syncretising pantheons.
In this case, any New World colonies would probably syncretise local gods and spirits into the colonial pantheon, adjusting to suit the dominant philosophy. So Helios-Huitzlopotchtlios and Iupiter-Quetzalcoatlus worshipped by Stoic Hispanicised Nahua might be a thing. Or any colony might never go beyond a trading post on the coast. Cortez's conquest of Mexico relied heavily on luck, it might very well be a low probability event.
 
Seconding this. One does not simply assume things happen for no reason, when they happened for a long list of reasons.
The Visigoth Kingdom itself surviving another 9 centuries in is equally as implausible; sure, we can say the East Roman Empire lasted until 1453, but that city-state had not much in common with the state as it existed prior to 1204, let alone how it was at the time of Justinian.
While small changes can be tolerated (even if still could well result in major changes overtime), such a big change like Christianity not existing will have enormous impact on Rome, on the upcoming barbarians (who adopted Christianity for precise political reasons) and of course effect the relationship between the ERE and Persia, and what OTL was the rise of Islam. And we're still around half VII century at most, let alone the time in which the Americas would be explored by Europeans.
I figured it would be like England where there are several different dynasties but the same Visigothic people in the area.
 
I figured it would be like England where there are several different dynasties but the same Visigothic people in the area.

Sure, let's go with that.
Why are these alt-Visigoth going to the Americas? Don't they have anything better to do in alt-Mediterranean? Is commerce with the East blocked by hostile powers or has alt-Venice appeared to monopolize it as happened ATL? Why are they in a better position than, say, England or France? OTL there are good reasons for Iberian precedence, here they may not be, but all of the above WILL have an impact in how alt-Conquistadores behave or even if it made sense for them to undertake the same rough century of exploration that led to the fated touchdown at Hispaniola.
 
Sure, let's go with that.
Why are these alt-Visigoth going to the Americas? Don't they have anything better to do in alt-Mediterranean? Is commerce with the East blocked by hostile powers or has alt-Venice appeared to monopolize it as happened ATL? Why are they in a better position than, say, England or France? OTL there are good reasons for Iberian precedence, here they may not be, but all of the above WILL have an impact in how alt-Conquistadores behave or even if it made sense for them to undertake the same rough century of exploration that led to the fated touchdown at Hispaniola.
That was the question I was asking in the op.
 
That was the question I was asking in the op.
But the problem is, there is no data to answer the question with beyond massive swarms of butterflies. OTL's pressures may as well be there or not, for the wildest or the tamest of reasons, but it really boils down to cherry-picked conjecture.
 
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