Well, that's a lot of dead butterflies.
I think this whole concept of 'axial' religions is very Abrahamic in worldview, failing to acknowledge that religion doesn't work the same way everywhere. Buddhism, for instance, is not really a religion per se, but rather a school (in fact several schools) of philosophy, which overlays a wide variety of preexisting 'pre-axial' religious systems. The same is true of Confucianism and Daoism. I think, that in the abscence of Christianity the religious structure of the Mediterranean world is better modelled by that of China than that of otl Europe. Several major and many more minor philosophical schools overlaying a vast panopoly of localised and consantly syncretising pantheons.
In this case, any New World colonies would probably syncretise local gods and spirits into the colonial pantheon, adjusting to suit the dominant philosophy. So Helios-Huitzlopotchtlios and Iupiter-Quetzalcoatlus worshipped by Stoic Hispanicised Nahua might be a thing. Or any colony might never go beyond a trading post on the coast. Cortez's conquest of Mexico relied heavily on luck, it might very well be a low probability event.
I think this whole concept of 'axial' religions is very Abrahamic in worldview, failing to acknowledge that religion doesn't work the same way everywhere. Buddhism, for instance, is not really a religion per se, but rather a school (in fact several schools) of philosophy, which overlays a wide variety of preexisting 'pre-axial' religious systems. The same is true of Confucianism and Daoism. I think, that in the abscence of Christianity the religious structure of the Mediterranean world is better modelled by that of China than that of otl Europe. Several major and many more minor philosophical schools overlaying a vast panopoly of localised and consantly syncretising pantheons.
In this case, any New World colonies would probably syncretise local gods and spirits into the colonial pantheon, adjusting to suit the dominant philosophy. So Helios-Huitzlopotchtlios and Iupiter-Quetzalcoatlus worshipped by Stoic Hispanicised Nahua might be a thing. Or any colony might never go beyond a trading post on the coast. Cortez's conquest of Mexico relied heavily on luck, it might very well be a low probability event.