Everything Japanese did "too little, too late" in WWII is done with maximal foresight

[trurle]

This thread is going to combine multiple low-probability PODs in the history of the Second Sino-Japanese War, Pacific War and Soviet invasion to Manchuria to produce the outcome expected would the Japanese top leadership be unite, possessing nearly inhuman foresight and yet handicapped with peculiar "blind spots" making at least some sort of large-scale war inevitable. Basically, everything the Japanese did "too little, too late" in war effort will be done at the earliest date and at the maximal extent possible. The story will use extensively "butterfly net" to keep key figures and historical events recognizable despite completely different historical context (for the purely entertainment purposes)

 

[TFSmith121]

So do they surrender to the US in 1941?

This thread is going to combine multiple low-probability PODs in the history of the Second Sino-Japanese War, Pacific War and Soviet invasion to Manchuria to produce the outcome expected would the Japanese top leadership be unite, possessing nearly inhuman foresight and yet handicapped with peculiar "blind spots" making at least some sort of large-scale war inevitable. Basically, everything the Japanese did "too little, too late" in war effort will be done at the earliest date and at the maximal extent possible. The story will use extensively "butterfly net" to keep key figures and historical events recognizable despite completely different historical context (for the purely entertainment purposes)

So do they surrender to the US in 1941?

Best,

 

[trurle]

POD 1: Insanity of Nobuhito Takamatsu.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobuhito,_Prince_Takamatsu
The Privy Council meeting 11 February 1937 was quite inconclusive. A lot of complains on louse security in Manchuko, bad productivity, lack of resources, mismanagement, followed by oaths to fix and to do impossible deed. 32-years old Prince Takamatsu was having some difficulty avoiding yawing. The effort took his full attention..until gradually become the part of the open-eyes dream. And the dream has rapidly turned into the nightmare..

In the dream, his wife Kikuko Tokugawa has joined Privy Council, wearing an extremely gory outfit. Her one-piece dress was torn and burned, and in hand she had a rotten and fried piece of meat, holding it like going to breast-feed. Prince Takamatsu knew instantly what it was the son he never had. Kikuko was continuing some interrupted speech, and each word struck Prince Takamatsu with excruciation pain.
- Because we do not have uranium, we can not retaliate in kind. Our materials stockpile is inadequate, our industry crippled by bombardment, our communications infrastructure is on the verge of collapse. All we can do is to die with honour..

At this moment, the dream has vaporized under the loud voice of Hideki Tojo, the chief-of-staff of Kwantung Army (he was called to Privy Council for witness report).
-...inadequate. But we will overcome the difficulties or die with honour!

-The latter is far more likely. - mumbled Prince Takamatsu and suddenly feel unwell. The faint smell of curry dinner being cooked nearby has become the smell of the burned flesh, ruined city and dirty clothes of refugees. He had a big difficulty keeping the blank face while his mind raced to analyse the symbolic meaning of his dream.

 

[trurle]

So do they surrender to the US in 1941?

Best,

Well, N. Takamatsu have tried to make Japan surrender in 1942. If i make him a leading figure, something of this sort may happen..or not?

 

[trurle]

POD 2: the ineffectual think tank

The dream has canalized the transformation of the simmering discontent of Prince Takamatsu into something more active. Mania or outright insanity. But insane or not, he was still the member of Imperial House, vested with significant freedom of decisions. Ultimately, Nobuhito Takamatsu has decided what his dream (featuring burned bodies and pyrophoric uranium material) is a harbinger, sent to him by some of Buddha s (to hell the State Shinto - it only to manupulate stupid masses).
Therefore, Prince Takamatsu must do anything to avert the "disaster of fire". But with such wide scope.. clearly an advice was needed.
Therefore, N. Takamatsu has started a assemble a "think tank", composed of people of his age or younger - looking for radical and bright minds rather than academic records. By June 1937, it was composed of dozen young men, clearly lead by Hideki Yukawa - research assistant from Kyoto University.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hideki_Yukawa

The results were mixed. Team quickly focused on the technical issue of the competition for the liquid fuels spiralling into all-out conflict. And the review intended to show how different states cope with petroleum shortage has uncovered the obscure fact of Germans having the pilot plant in Brabag making usable liquid fuel from the coal feedstock. But it was the only success of the team. The message about fuel technology the Takamatsu tried to deliver was ridiculed.. by everybody he contacted.
- Price is too high.
- It will cause the shortage of coal. Better to burn coal directly!
- Too much time to build factories
- Productivity is bad
- We do not have enough qualified manpower
- Only highest-grade fuels are acceptable for Navy
- Stop doing irritating nonsense and go to the vacation (this remark was from Emperor).

This was the last straw. The mind of N. Takamatsu has shattered.
- Kill that arrogant idiot! Kill him.. - streamed his thoughts.
- Forbidden and immoral, but if for higher purposes, history has the precedents. Kill, but not just Emperor.. behead the entire ruling elite, promote younger men, and firmly control the empire himself.. in the role of say "regent". The small Akihito will be nominal Emperor, but crisis will be finished in one way or other well before he is going to reach adulthood.

 

[ObssesedNuker]

Assuming the two obvious decisions of "give the Americans what they want and don't go to war" or "don't surrender" are off the table, then the best Japan can do is drag it out until 1946.

 

[trurle]

Assuming the two obvious decisions of "give the Americans what they want and don't go to war" or "don't surrender" are off the table, then the best Japan can do is drag it out until 1946.

I promised a large-scale war (similar or even greater than Pacific War). But the deviation from the OTL may be larger than you expect.

 

[BobTheBarbarian]

Assuming the two obvious decisions of "give the Americans what they want and don't go to war" or "don't surrender" are off the table, then the best Japan can do is drag it out until 1946.

Depends on the degree of destruction they're willing to take.

In my mind a 'good' (i.e, better than the one they chose) strategy for the Pacific War goes roughly as follows:

1. Following the acquisition of northern French Indochina in 1940, put as much effort toward an 'Ichi-Go' type offensive as soon as possible, and bolster the rail network in southern China as quickly as possible ala Burma. This is so that Japan might have a continuous land corridor from Singapore to Korea through which to ship raw materials, taking a considerable strain off the merchant fleet.

2. Don't attack Pearl Harbor or any American possessions, keep the US out of the war at all costs.

3. Do attack the possessions of Britain, the Netherlands, France, etc. more or less on schedule. Keep atrocities and war crimes to an absolute minimum; 1904-5 standards are in effect.

4. Should the United States be forced into action against you, the lack of universal outrage over any direct attacks and still-substantial isolationist elements will make any serious commitment unpopular and problematic.

5. If the US Government feels pressured to end the war soon for lack of public support, they will be forced to send their fleet westward in the already-acknowledged-as-suicidal "thruster plan," right into the teeth of Combined Fleet, which had prepared for just this scenario for 20-odd years.

6. Result: 'Kantai Kessen:' a second Tsushima. Offer terms that allow the US to save face while preserving some of your gains. With your primary adversary out of the way, you will be temporarily invincible.

7. When inevitably faced with nuclear blackmail a few years down the road, cooperate by evacuating from conquered SE Asian nations while leaving puppet governments loyal to you, supported by copious material aid. The core Empire: Manchuria, Korea, Formosa, Sakhalin and Kuriles, etc. remains intact and thoroughly Japanese.​

If Japan is still forced to go to war under this scenario, then that's the best I've got. It ain't pretty and it looks like a long shot, though it sure beats the "prompt and utter destruction" they ended up with in OTL.

 

[Lost Freeway]

This thread is going to combine multiple low-probability PODs...

 

[trurle]

Depends on the degree of destruction they're willing to take.

In my mind a 'good' (i.e, better than the one they chose) strategy for the Pacific War goes roughly as follows:

1. Following the acquisition of northern French Indochina in 1940, put as much effort toward an 'Ichi-Go' type offensive as soon as possible, and bolster the rail network in southern China as quickly as possible ala Burma. This is so that Japan might have a continuous land corridor from Singapore to Korea through which to ship raw materials, taking a considerable strain off the merchant fleet.

2. Don't attack Pearl Harbor or any American possessions, keep the US out of the war at all costs.

3. Do attack the possessions of Britain, the Netherlands, France, etc. more or less on schedule. Keep atrocities and war crimes to an absolute minimum; 1904-5 standards are in effect.

4. Should the United States be forced into action against you, the lack of universal outrage over any direct attacks and still-substantial isolationist elements will make any serious commitment unpopular and problematic.

5. If the US Government feels pressured to end the war soon for lack of public support, they will be forced to send their fleet westward in the already-acknowledged-as-suicidal "thruster plan," right into the teeth of Combined Fleet, which had prepared for just this scenario for 20-odd years.

6. Result: 'Kantai Kessen:' a second Tsushima. Offer terms that allow the US to save face while preserving some of your gains. With your primary adversary out of the way, you will be temporarily invincible.

7. When inevitably faced with nuclear blackmail a few years down the road, cooperate by evacuating from conquered SE Asian nations while leaving puppet governments loyal to you, supported by copious material aid. The core Empire: Manchuria, Korea, Formosa, Sakhalin and Kuriles, etc. remains intact and thoroughly Japanese.​

If Japan is still forced to go to war under this scenario, then that's the best I've got. It ain't pretty and it looks like a long shot, though it sure beats the "prompt and utter destruction" they ended up with in OTL.

Relatively reasonable plan. Unfortunately, balance of power in China did not allow anything like Ichi-Go until after few years of Allied military "help" blocked out (IOTL in 1944). The need to enforce blockade for something like Ichi-Go has actually helped to motivate Japan to attack "easier" (sic.) targets in 1941 IOTL.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Frankly this thread should be in the ASB forum with the Japanese government getting hindsight powers in 1939 with the start of WW2 in Europe.

 

[trurle]

POD 3: accidental death of Hideki Tojo

With Prince Takamatsu on "vacations" (actually plotting Emperor's murder), the Marco Polo Bridge incident went as in our timeline. And as IOTL, the Hideki Tojo personally (and irresponsibly) led the troops of the 1st independent mixed Brigade (Sakai brigade) during "Operation Chahar". With both Tojo and brigade commander Koji Sakai killed by a random Chinese mortar shell, the operation Chahar has turned into the chaotic mess. With elite Sakai Brigade no longer combat-capable, Chinese were able to hold Nankou until early September 1937, and even the fall of Nankou did not help Japanese much, as the reinforcements from the Chinese 14th army has already arrived to the area. The initial bright hopes for the fast end of Chinese conflict were rapidly fading (even faster than IOTL). The discontent officers flocked to Takamatsu, and he made a fateful remark in his diary:

- Initiative of the junior officers of Japanese army is stymied by the brutal "rite of passage" treatment. Need to do something to prevent loss of initiative in case of death of senior officers. Heavy losses expected, and currently top officers are purely suicidal. Let them die and replace with more reasonable hardened veterans. Also, streamline promotion procedure, reduce disciplinary training and indoctrination and add more sapper training. (to implement after taking control)

 

[trurle]

Frankly this thread should be in the ASB forum with the Japanese government getting hindsight powers in 1939 with the start of WW2 in Europe.

I will try to keep it realistic. Foresight, but not hindsight. At least Japanese will not mine uranium until nuclear energy applications disclosed by somebody else.

 

[BobTheBarbarian]

Relatively reasonable plan. Unfortunately, balance of power in China did not allow anything like Ichi-Go until after few years of Allied military "help" blocked out (IOTL in 1944). The need to enforce blockade for something like Ichi-Go has actually helped to motivate Japan to attack "easier" (sic.) targets in 1941 IOTL.

I would say it was feasible. The Chinese Army only got bigger and better supplied after 1941 when Allied Lend-Lease started to take effect. After their successful start in the Pacific IGHQ began plans for a decisive offensive against Chungking (Operation No. 5) in December that would have involved, presumably in addition to the bulk of the China Expeditionary Army, 200,000 men and a huge quantity of equipment from the Kwantung Army in Manchuria. According to Alvin D. Coox, this operation was only cancelled when 1942 reverses in the Pacific (Midway, Guadalcanal, etc.) demanded a greater focus southward. Given the impressive buildup they were able to orchestrate in Manchuria prior to a potential attack on the USSR, it seems possible they could have built up the strength necessary to overpower the Chinese at a slightly earlier date.

 

[trurle]

I would say it was feasible. The Chinese Army only got bigger and better supplied after 1941 when Allied Lend-Lease started to take effect. After their successful start in the Pacific IGHQ began plans for a decisive offensive against Chungking (Operation No. 5) in December that would have involved, presumably in addition to the bulk of the China Expeditionary Army, 200,000 men and a huge quantity of equipment from the Kwantung Army in Manchuria. According to Alvin D. Coox, this operation was only cancelled when 1942 reverses in the Pacific (Midway, Guadalcanal, etc.) demanded a greater focus southward. Given the impressive buildup they were able to orchestrate in Manchuria prior to a potential attack on the USSR, it seems possible they could have built up the strength necessary to overpower the Chinese at a slightly earlier date.

The Chinese got a very limited supplies by the airlift (averaging 500 tons/day) during 1942-1944 after the Japanese has closed Burma Road.
The first convoy through Ledo Road (nominal capacity 2200 tons/day) has arrived to China 4 February 1945.

For reference: 1 division in WWII required 200-750 tons/day supply during active combat. Therefore, during 1942-1944 the foreign equipment and ammunition reserve of Chinese army (~100 active divisions) was depleting rather than increasing. What`s why Japanese were able to make Ichi-Go in 1944 (even with reduced Kwantung army), but considered it hopeless in 1942.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

POD 1: Insanity of Nobuhito Takamatsu.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobuhito,_Prince_Takamatsu
The Privy Council meeting 11 February 1937 was quite inconclusive. A lot of complains on louse security in Manchuko, bad productivity, lack of resources, mismanagement, followed by oaths to fix and to do impossible deed. 32-years old Prince Takamatsu was having some difficulty avoiding yawing. The effort took his full attention..until gradually become the part of the open-eyes dream. And the dream has rapidly turned into the nightmare..

In the dream, his wife Kikuko Tokugawa has joined Privy Council, wearing an extremely gory outfit. Her one-piece dress was torn and burned, and in hand she had a rotten and fried piece of meat, holding it like going to breast-feed. Prince Takamatsu knew instantly what it was the son he never had. Kikuko was continuing some interrupted speech, and each word struck Prince Takamatsu with excruciation pain.
- Because we do not have uranium, we can not retaliate in kind. Our materials stockpile is inadequate, our industry crippled by bombardment, our communications infrastructure is on the verge of collapse. All we can do is to die with honour..

At this moment, the dream has vaporized under the loud voice of Hideki Tojo, the chief-of-staff of Kwantung Army (he was called to Privy Council for witness report).
-...inadequate. But we will overcome the difficulties or die with honour!

-The latter is far more likely. - mumbled Prince Takamatsu and suddenly feel unwell. The faint smell of curry dinner being cooked nearby has become the smell of the burned flesh, ruined city and dirty clothes of refugees. He had a big difficulty keeping the blank face while his mind raced to analyse the symbolic meaning of his dream.

Are there going to be any PODs earlier than this? I.e. to accelerate the industrialisation of Japan. In particular the steel industry, shipbuilding industry and expanding the merchant marine.

 

[trurle]

POD 4 (critical): the epoch of Takamatsu regency

From the historical textbook from 2016 AD:

The exact circumstances of how Prince Takamatsu has become Regent Takamatsu are veiled in obscurity. Official Japanese history portrait the disgruntled assassin - Sadao Araki, acting in conspiracy with evil plotter Fuminaro Konoe to usurp the Chrysanthemum Throne in January 1938. But the official version leave many questions open. Why the emperor was found dead in bullet-ridden room while the confrontation with the Sadao Araki has happened several rooms away? Why Fuminaro Konoe was executed in such a haste? Why Regent Takamatsu, originally pleading to continue the policies of dead Emperor, visibly clashed with majority of his supporters within a first month of his rule? How much the subsequent purge of the Imperial Japanese Army and the violent dissolution of the Imperial Japanese Navy was attributed to disagreement on political grounds rather than participation in anti-emperor conspiracy?

The questions are so numerous, what some modern historians tend to reject the existense of "Araki/Konoe conspiracy" at all. But of course, we cannot support such absurd historical revisionism, not confirmed by any documents.

P.S. This ATL historian did not write the event which DID NOT happened in ATL because of Takamatsu ascendancy. The Japanese government in February 1938 DID NOT stopped treating the Chiang Kai-shek government as the legitimate government of China. And this would have a far-flung consequences..

 

[MattII]

Depends on the degree of destruction they're willing to take.

In my mind a 'good' (i.e, better than the one they chose) strategy for the Pacific War goes roughly as follows:

1. Following the acquisition of northern French Indochina in 1940, put as much effort toward an 'Ichi-Go' type offensive as soon as possible, and bolster the rail network in southern China as quickly as possible ala Burma. This is so that Japan might have a continuous land corridor from Singapore to Korea through which to ship raw materials, taking a considerable strain off the merchant fleet.

2. Don't attack Pearl Harbor or any American possessions, keep the US out of the war at all costs.

3. Do attack the possessions of Britain, the Netherlands, France, etc. more or less on schedule. Keep atrocities and war crimes to an absolute minimum; 1904-5 standards are in effect.

4. Should the United States be forced into action against you, the lack of universal outrage over any direct attacks and still-substantial isolationist elements will make any serious commitment unpopular and problematic.

5. If the US Government feels pressured to end the war soon for lack of public support, they will be forced to send their fleet westward in the already-acknowledged-as-suicidal "thruster plan," right into the teeth of Combined Fleet, which had prepared for just this scenario for 20-odd years.

6. Result: 'Kantai Kessen:' a second Tsushima. Offer terms that allow the US to save face while preserving some of your gains. With your primary adversary out of the way, you will be temporarily invincible.

7. When inevitably faced with nuclear blackmail a few years down the road, cooperate by evacuating from conquered SE Asian nations while leaving puppet governments loyal to you, supported by copious material aid. The core Empire: Manchuria, Korea, Formosa, Sakhalin and Kuriles, etc. remains intact and thoroughly Japanese.​

If Japan is still forced to go to war under this scenario, then that's the best I've got. It ain't pretty and it looks like a long shot, though it sure beats the "prompt and utter destruction" they ended up with in OTL.

1. They don't have the manpower, not unless they give up a lot of land elsewhere.
2. Hard, with Roosevelt in power, you're likely to find a war on your hands sooner or later, and the longer you delay, the worse it will be since the US will have more time to build up.
3. 'Keeping atrocities to a minimum' is not going to happen, Japan of the period is steeped in atrocities.
4. While doing nothing to affect the commitment of submarine warfare, which was a huge issue for the Japanese OTL.
5. By 1943, the US will be bringing the Essexes online, which will have major qualitative advantages over the Kido Butai carriers.
6. You're going into a fight with fewer, less well equipped ships than your enemy. Don't expect a good outcome.
7. Not happening, ever.

The best way is to not go to war at all. The second best, don't PH the Americans, and give in when they start to press.

 

[steamboy]

This is promising but it needs to be in ASB I'm afraid.

 

[MattII]

Yeah, pretty much, because the war-mad Japanese leadership would need a major overhaul before acting this intelligently.