"Everybody must get choked"...Ottoman Dynastic suicide, in 1808

If the Ottoman claimants were killed off

  • Britain would try another invasion of Ottoman territory

    Votes: 13 28.9%
  • Britain would quit its war with the Ottomans at or ahead of OTL's schedule

    Votes: 2 4.4%
  • The French mission would have a lot of influence on who succeeds to the throne

    Votes: 6 13.3%
  • The French mission would have little influence on succession

    Votes: 9 20.0%
  • Russia would get more deeply and successfully involved in Ottoman territories

    Votes: 27 60.0%
  • Russia would not be any more successful in Ottoman territories than OTL

    Votes: 1 2.2%
  • Regional Ottoman Governors/warlords would declare independence throughout the Empire

    Votes: 23 51.1%
  • Governors/warlords would not declare independence

    Votes: 4 8.9%
  • A Giray living in the OE would become Sultan in Constantinople

    Votes: 21 46.7%
  • The Ecumenical Patriarch would take over Constantinople

    Votes: 5 11.1%
  • A Giray from Russia under Russian control would be installed over some or all Ottoman territory

    Votes: 6 13.3%
  • The Phanariots would installed over all or most of European Turkey

    Votes: 6 13.3%

  • Total voters
    45

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
Inspired by this remark of KMP, below

The only one which is really close and that is in 1808. There are two male members of the dynasty: Mahmud II (Sultan) and Mustafa IV (deposed but alive). In 1808, the Janissaries rioted in town after indirectly killing Grand Vizier Alemdar Mustafa Pasha, trying to restore Mustafa IV on the throne. During the riot, the city was in chaos. The pro-Mustafa Janissaries fought against the pro-Mahmud forces and the navy.

Now... in this confusion Mahmud II ordered the execution of his brother Mustafa. If the Janissaries break in the palace and kill Mahmud while the executioners kill Mustafa without both having knowledge of each other... this would mean the dynasty is extinct. And the remaining Giray family can be placed on the throne but the semi indepedent pasha's will most likely refuse to acknowledge. And may break apart...

This is to me the only best* possibility

I was going to call it an Ottoman "circular firing squad", but "everybody must get choked" seems more appropriate since strangulation was the preferred method of execution.

Now it's not the first time this scenario has been considered, but I recently learned that the Ottoman Empire was in a state of war with both Britain and Russia at this time.

Will prospective Ottoman weakness motivate the British to try to attack Egypt or any other Ottoman territory again? They had already tried and failed in expeditions against the straits and then Alexandria in 1807.

What will the French military mission of Horace Sebastiani in Constantinople try to do, and who will it line up with among non-Ottoman power contenders. The Sebastiani mission had participated in organizing the defense of the straits from the British earlier.

Will the Russians increase the scope of their campaigns into OE territory beyond what they did in OTL 1808-1812?

How much of a chance could this situation provide for Britain and/or Russia to make territorial gains or "sphere of influence" gains at the Empire's expense significantly in excess of what they got in OTL (Bessarabia)?

The Girays were the legitimate inheritors of the OE. Could they be installed? And which Giray descendants were available and where they did they live? The last Crimean Khan had already been deposed. Would it be possible for the Ottoman military, French and Russians to back their own member of the Giray family as a client/puppet ruler for the Empire?

Could/would Russia push hard trying to fill the vacuum using its own forces and clients (be they rebels, the Ecumenical Patriarch, a Giray they control, Phanariot Hospodars or anyone else) from 1808, and tie down much more of their manpower from 1808 onward deep in the Balkans, Caucasus, maybe even deeper into Asia Minor and the Fertile Crescent?

Might this alter Napoleon and Alexander's calculations and cancel, postpone, or accelerate the Franco-Russian war that the former started in 1812?

Could the British find themselves stretched thin between competing commitments in the eastern Mediterranean, and the emerging peninsular war?
 
Last edited:
Inspired by this remark of KMP, below



I was going to call it an Ottoman "circular firing squad", but "everybody must get choked" seems more appropriate since strangulation was the preferred method of execution.

Now it's not the first time this scenario has been considered, but I recently learned that the Ottoman Empire was in a state of war with both Britain and Russia at this time.

Will prospective Ottoman weakness motivate the British to try to attack Egypt or any other Ottoman territory again? They had already tried and failed in expeditions against the straits and then Alexandria in 1807.

What will the French military mission of Horace Sebastiani in Constantinople try to do, and who will it line up with among non-Ottoman power contenders. The Sebastiani mission had participated in organizing the defense of the straits from the British earlier.

Will the Russians increase the scope of their campaigns into OE territory beyond what they did in OTL 1808-1812?

How much of a chance could this situation provide for Britain and/or Russia to make territorial gains or "sphere of influence" gains at the Empire's expense significantly in excess of what they got in OTL (Bessarabia)?

The Girays were the legitimate inheritors of the OE. Could they be installed? And which Giray descendants were available and where they did they live? The last Crimean Khan had already been deposed. Would it be possible for the Ottoman military, French and Russians to back their own member of the Giray family as a client/puppet ruler for the Empire?

Could/would Russia push hard trying to fill the vacuum using its own forces and clients (be they rebels, the Ecumenical Patriarch, a Giray they control, Phanariot Hospodars or anyone else) from 1808, and tie down much more of their manpower from 1808 onward deep in the Balkans, Caucasus, maybe even deeper into Asia Minor and the Fertile Crescent?

Might this alter Napoleon and Alexander's calculations and cancel, postpone, or accelerate the Franco-Russian war that the former started in 1812?

Could the British find themselves stretched thin between competing commitments in the eastern Mediterranean, and the emerging peninsular war?

I see some case of warlord Pasha's. The mightiest of them all is Mehmed Ali of Egypt. Then Janissaries rule in Anarchy Constantinople until someone else takes them out and that will be pretty soon.

I can see Mehmed Ali Pasha as the mightiest man in post-Ottoman lands ruling Egypt, Levant and Iraq. I can see him appointing a Giray on the throne to force other Pasha's to agree if the government officials call him for aid. Ali Pasha Tependeli will go likely for independence in Greece until he's beaten or let go. The Serbs under Karađordevic will expand a bit more to the south, depending on what the new government would do.

Due to the era in Napoleonic time it isn't as bad as post 1815. But... Romania (exuding Dobruja) is lost to Russia by 1809. The Ottoman Georgian lands most likely as well. There would be anarcht up until the 1820s with Mehmed Ali Pasha as the real power behind the Giray Sultan.

Now if the Janissaries fend off any attack on Constantinople and Mehmed Ali Pasha dies... then things get really interesting.
 
Last edited:

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
I see some case of warlord Pasha's.

fair enough

Then Janissaries rule in Anarchy Constantinople until someone else takes them out and that will be pretty soon.

I wonder if the French aid mission of Horace Sebastiani would have worked with anyone in this time of chaos, and if so, who and why. Of course we could question if the individuals in the mission could even assemble and act as a unit to defend themselves.

I can see Mehmed Ali Pasha as the mightiest man in post-Ottoman lands ruling Egypt, Levant and Iraq. I can see him appointing a Giray on the throne to force other Pasha's to agree if the government officials call him for aid.

I guess so, he demonstrated his skills early. So this would be some Giray living in areas M.A.P. controls?

Ali Pasha Tependeli will go likely for independence in Greece until he's beaten or let go.

What are his borders, modern Greece, Albania and Macedonia? If he is not beaten, and is let go, how does his realm develop, and is he is able to shape the succession or is it "apres-moi, le deluge"?

he Serbs under Karađordevic will expand a bit more to the south, depending on what the new government would do.

Fair enough - southern parts of modern Serbia, and Kosovo? No western expansion into Bosnia? Can any initiatives be expected from the Montenegrins?

Due to the era in Napoleonic time it isn't as bad as post 1815.

I guess - the British are fighting the French this whole time. And the Russians need to look over their shoulder at the French even while the peace of Tilsit is in effect. But the Russians do potentially have almost 4 years to make gains, and the peace of Tilsit might end up extended.

But... Romania (exuding Dobruja) is lost to Russia by 1809.

So you figure it is going to be a direct annexation of all Moldavia and Wallachia into Russia? And then this gain gets ratified win in the Congress of Vienna? I wonder what Austria would demand and receive in "compensation" or if it could even leverage any compensation under these circumstances.

ISTM annexation of Romania sets the table nicely for Russia in the 19th century.
 
Things would go very bad for the no-longer-Ottoman Empire - and very quickly. With Mahmud and Mustafa both dead, there is no obvious successor. The empty throne is bad enough, but that's not all, strongman Alemdar Mustafa also got blown up. So there's no obvious candidate to take charge in Constantinople. There's going to be a day or two of anarchy before other elements establish a weak and unstable provisional authority. (These other elements could be the Janissaries, or the Sheikh-ul-Islam, or some regional governor from somewhere relatively close.)

The Ottoman war effort will experience a nasty shock, if not an outright collapse. And regional warlords will start establishing (officially or unofficially) independent realms.

At the time, there was an unofficial cease-fire between Russia and the Ottoman Empire. Of course, the cease-fire will end immediately as news spreads of the Ottoman dynasty's circular firing squad. Russia will annex Wallachia and Moldavia and organize a major offensive into the Balkans, accompanied by revolutionary Serbia. The offensive will be a massive success on most, if not all, fronts. Molla Idris, the regional warlord of Vidin, might be one of the first to declare independence; trying to preserve his rule in the face of the Russian invasion.

The British were just about to sign a peace with the Ottomans, and wouldn't be too happy about the end of the dynasty and the collapse of the empire. They will throw their support behind Ali Pasha of Ioannina, who was - by now - Britain's #1 friend and France's #1 enemy within the empire. They'd help Ali Pasha fight against France and create an independent realm. Maybe they'd even encourage him to proclaim himself Sultan; or to march on Constantinople and take control over the provisional government.

The French mission would certainly like to influence the succession, but it's been a long time since any of the Ottomans liked them or trusted them. (Also, Sebastiani isn't with the mission, he was recalled to France in 1807.) They might try to support Selim Giray as candidate, and do everything they can to prevent Ali Pasha from taking power in Constantinople.

If (or rather, when) the empire starts collapsing, France will probably invade Bosnia and occupy it; and try to invade Albania, but with mixed success.

So, the candidates for the Ottoman throne would be
-Selim Giray: the default choice, but not very useful either way.
-One of the Giray's from Russia: the "let's suck up to Russia and maybe they won't crush us" choice.
-Ali Pasha of Ioaninna: comes with his own power base, which is good, but also comes with the extreme hostility of France.

All three of them open up interesting possibilities, but none of them would be really good enough to stop the collapse of the empire.

The Franco-Russian war is postponed, and maybe even butterflied away. The War of the Fifth Coalition might start earlier as France and Austria clash over Bosnia.
 
fair enough



I wonder if the French aid mission of Horace Sebastiani would have worked with anyone in this time of chaos, and if so, who and why. Of course we could question if the individuals in the mission could even assemble and act as a unit to defend themselves.



I guess so, he demonstrated his skills early. So this would be some Giray living in areas M.A.P. controls?



What are his borders, modern Greece, Albania and Macedonia? If he is not beaten, and is let go, how does his realm develop, and is he is able to shape the succession or is it "apres-moi, le deluge"?



Fair enough - southern parts of modern Serbia, and Kosovo? No western expansion into Bosnia? Can any initiatives be expected from the Montenegrins?



I guess - the British are fighting the French this whole time. And the Russians need to look over their shoulder at the French even while the peace of Tilsit is in effect. But the Russians do potentially have almost 4 years to make gains, and the peace of Tilsit might end up extended.



So you figure it is going to be a direct annexation of all Moldavia and Wallachia into Russia? And then this gain gets ratified win in the Congress of Vienna? I wonder what Austria would demand and receive in "compensation" or if it could even leverage any compensation under these circumstances.

ISTM annexation of Romania sets the table nicely for Russia in the 19th century.

Not necessarily annexation but occupation (With Russia annexing at least Moldova later). Austria will defintely be awarded. I'd see Russia turning a blind eye on Belgrad Pashaluk and Bosnia for the Austrians. It wasn't the first time they did with the Serbs.

Ali Pasha Owns most of Albania, Epirus all the way to Athens. His realm would strech from Centinje in Montenegro to Cape Matapan with additional Aegean Islands, Thessaloniki and Macedonia.
 
Things would go very bad for the no-longer-Ottoman Empire - and very quickly. With Mahmud and Mustafa both dead, there is no obvious successor. The empty throne is bad enough, but that's not all, strongman Alemdar Mustafa also got blown up. So there's no obvious candidate to take charge in Constantinople. There's going to be a day or two of anarchy before other elements establish a weak and unstable provisional authority. (These other elements could be the Janissaries, or the Sheikh-ul-Islam, or some regional governor from somewhere relatively close.)

The Ottoman war effort will experience a nasty shock, if not an outright collapse. And regional warlords will start establishing (officially or unofficially) independent realms.

At the time, there was an unofficial cease-fire between Russia and the Ottoman Empire. Of course, the cease-fire will end immediately as news spreads of the Ottoman dynasty's circular firing squad. Russia will annex Wallachia and Moldavia and organize a major offensive into the Balkans, accompanied by revolutionary Serbia. The offensive will be a massive success on most, if not all, fronts. Molla Idris, the regional warlord of Vidin, might be one of the first to declare independence; trying to preserve his rule in the face of the Russian invasion.

The British were just about to sign a peace with the Ottomans, and wouldn't be too happy about the end of the dynasty and the collapse of the empire. They will throw their support behind Ali Pasha of Ioannina, who was - by now - Britain's #1 friend and France's #1 enemy within the empire. They'd help Ali Pasha fight against France and create an independent realm. Maybe they'd even encourage him to proclaim himself Sultan; or to march on Constantinople and take control over the provisional government.

The French mission would certainly like to influence the succession, but it's been a long time since any of the Ottomans liked them or trusted them. (Also, Sebastiani isn't with the mission, he was recalled to France in 1807.) They might try to support Selim Giray as candidate, and do everything they can to prevent Ali Pasha from taking power in Constantinople.

If (or rather, when) the empire starts collapsing, France will probably invade Bosnia and occupy it; and try to invade Albania, but with mixed success.

So, the candidates for the Ottoman throne would be
-Selim Giray: the default choice, but not very useful either way.
-One of the Giray's from Russia: the "let's suck up to Russia and maybe they won't crush us" choice.
-Ali Pasha of Ioaninna: comes with his own power base, which is good, but also comes with the extreme hostility of France.

All three of them open up interesting possibilities, but none of them would be really good enough to stop the collapse of the empire.

The Franco-Russian war is postponed, and maybe even butterflied away. The War of the Fifth Coalition might start earlier as France and Austria clash over Bosnia.

I would say fair enough but I've seen you have not told what the role of Mehmed Ali Pasha would be.
 
I would say fair enough but I've seen you have not told what the role of Mehmed Ali Pasha would be.

I can also see Mehmed Ali ruling over Egypt and the Levant, maybe Iraq. But probably as an independent ruler, not as a kingmaker projecting power onto Constantinople - he'd be busy with consolidating his rule in the core, swallowing more of the Ottoman periphery, and getting international recognition.
 
Wouldn't it be a great opportunity for Napoleon to gain Russia as a very strong ally?
By supporting their claims and, at least, giving them a free hand against the British, it opens another front by potentially fragilising Egypt and makes the Continental Blocus way easier to swallow for the Tsar
 
Wouldn't it be a great opportunity for Napoleon to gain Russia as a very strong ally?
By supporting their claims and, at least, giving them a free hand against the British, it opens another front by potentially fragilising Egypt and makes the Continental Blocus way easier to swallow for the Tsar

I agree. Political chaos of this scale is the opportunity Russia has been waiting for. I can't see that this would be viewed as anything other than Ottoman weakness by the other great powers and an opportunity to grab territory either directly or indirectly through support of increasingly independent governors and puppet states. Whether they're successful or not is a different matter...

I guess the biggest question is how strong was the Ottoman machine of state in that era and could it continue to operate headless for the few years it would take to sort the whole mess out?
 
I agree. Political chaos of this scale is the opportunity Russia has been waiting for. I can't see that this would be viewed as anything other than Ottoman weakness by the other great powers and an opportunity to grab territory either directly or indirectly through support of increasingly independent governors and puppet states. Whether they're successful or not is a different matter...

I guess the biggest question is how strong was the Ottoman machine of state in that era and could it continue to operate headless for the few years it would take to sort the whole mess out?
And could it resist agression by both France and Russia at the same time on top of potential rebellions?
Could we see an earlier version of Napoleon III policies of protecting Catholics?
Ideological framework for colonial works weren't quite there yet but that would be an interesting development
 
I wonder how places like Greece, Bulgaria, Bosnia and the rest of Ottoman Europe would look like with the sudden collapse of the Ottoman Empire. Ottoman Warlords? Anyone of the European Powers (Napoleon, Russia, the UK.) try and 'free' the regions while putting them under the influence? Early Greek Revolution?

Persia is also at war with the Russians right about now. Could they try and make a move against the Ottomans?
 
So what happens to Anatolia and Iraq? Does a rump Ottoman state survive or is it every man for himself? And is Iraq under Mameluke control or something else?
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
Given the right circumstances could they go revolutionary

What and who do you mean by this, specifically?

So what happens to Anatolia and Iraq? Does a rump Ottoman state survive or is it every man for himself? And is Iraq under Mameluke control or something else?

Anatolia is a great question - I've never heard of any dudes who were known as the "strongman of Anatolia" at this time, unlike for Arab areas and Balkan areas.
 
Would it be correct to assume a rump Ottoman state would potentially lose most of eastern Anatolia (e.g. Armenian and Assyrian areas, etc) along with most or all of its European territories yet manage to hold on to its remaining territories for a bit longer?
 
Top