Ok, ok. Other people, thoughts?
More on the international stage:
France: war ending in 40 without France's Fall mean a big political butterfly for that nation; no stigma of Vichy, the communist will be much much less relevant (between no resistance and the fact that they have supported the nazi due to order from Moscow their post war influence will rapidly diminish). No massive use of colonial troops and no fall of Indochina mean that the French Empire can survive much longer or at least retain more territory/concession/bases of OTL, even due to the fact that there is no massive destruction and debt with the american.
Good news, the old guard of the WWI folk hero is on the last leg, when they are gone things will be much smoother.
Great Britain: sitaution much much similar to France, except that with the US with Long at the helm, some worries about the safety of Canada will be constant. Probably the first atomic power of the world ITTL (but the project will be an Anglo-French co-production for budget reason).
Chamberlain retiring from Prime minister during the war much depend on when it end and if the Norway debacle happen; Halifax has the problem to be a lord and ...well see below.
Germany: much depend on how the war end due to the Hitler assassination; collapse? civil war? The army quickly step up and take control? In the last case maybe some type of agreement can be found (basically throwing Poland to the wolf...but in a manner to save face for everyone) so Halifax as Prime Minister even if difficult can be a conciliatory move in the eyes of the German but if a more hardline politics must be implemented or some strong pressure over the Germans want to be applied Churchill is a more logical choice.
Italy: taking care of her own business, accepting the meager Entente bribe to remain neutral, continuing the pacification of Abyssinia and trying to create her little fascist block with Spain and other nations (trying to get back Austria as puppet if possible). A Freenemy of the Entente in the struggle against the Soviet.
If Benny see the occasion, using the chaos the the war and post-war to invade Yugoslavia without the risk of UK or France interfere.
URSS: good news...no Barbarossa, bad news...no east europe empire and general OTL postwar influence in western europe or in the colonial liberation movement. Probably limiting to set up base and puppet on the Baltic nation (but no annexing) and keeping their share of Poland (even if some minor concesson can be given for diplomatic/political reason). No ultimatum to Romania as Stalin waited the Fall of France to do it due to be much less risk prone of Hitler; there is also the possibility that with Germany in chaos he will absorb the rest to Poland for 'security' reason.
Worse news...no war mean much less stress for Stalin and this can be translated with some more years of control of the URSS and this will not be a very good developement for anyone involved.
Post-colonial blues: very much different from OTL, no prolonged WWII mean that the european nation will not be devastated both phisically and financially so they will cling to their empire more; this also mean a lot less weapon available for the possible liberation movement (no massive production and no leftover from the fighting) and no great use of colonial troops and this mean less possibility for the locals to broad their orizon, claim legitimancy for fighting for the empire and general military experience.
On the other hand both URSS and USA will actively oppose the old european colonial empires for ideological and political reasons.