I may do a sort of mix of these ideas. I'll start to look around the forums and see what TLs have been done. I'm really interested in developing this after the help I've got on this thread.
Even American Natives
- Thread starter Zorqal
- Start date
I may do a sort of mix of these ideas. I'll start to look around the forums and see what TLs have been done. I'm really interested in developing this after the help I've got on this thread.
I somehow did not realize the classic and preclassic collapses were different. Oh well, reversing the 695 battle would still be a interesting tl to write and not only because it is odd that Kaan is not better known.
I expected them to be brought all the way north, rather than stopping in Mesoamerica. There would be a quick exchange from one boat to another in relatively southern central america, so near Panama. A ride in a cart, and two days later maybe, they're back on a ship headed north to the cooler areas.
Plus, that island had no shade. This is a trip through a heavily shaded forest, to a cooler, shaded area. There may be a few deaths, but even a few helpful pack animals making it to Mississippi valley would start a trade for more of them. They would be in need of an animal able to be used as llamas are.
AtriumCarceris
Banned
First, that's quite a shock that it "didn't make it to Argentina," considering the Inca Empire spanned parts of Argentina, OTL.
Also, Argentina is the wrong direction.
And finally, Llamas are originally North American. They made it south and then died off in the north. All on their own. No reason they can't make it back if for some reason, people really wanted to spread them north. The trek would be made infinitely easier if ships were available.
I'm pretty sure he meant lowland, east-coast Argentina. And he's right that if domestic llamas did not make it there, coming to North America is a difficult proposition at best.
The species that originally came south millions of years ago is not the species that survived to the modern era, sheltered from the worst of human hunting in the second-tallest mountain chain on earth. Bringing Llama glama north across the tropics is a very different proposition than the southern migration of glama's ancestors.
That was my thinking about the llamas.
I'm trying to study up and read through some previous threads to make this thread i'm tying to write as plausible a possible.
AtriumCarceris
Banned
The reason it "didn't make it there" is a matter of natural Llama behaviour vs people putting them there. They are there now after all, and what we're talking about is a hypothetical concerted effort to spread Llamas due to an increase in contact, tech, a desire for trade, and other such things.
As far as I know, that the specific species are different is irrelevant. Movement happened, and can happen. And you're missing my point anyway. What you seem to be trying to say is that because modern Llamas would never move around on their own (this in itself I argue is not necessary, they could have. That they didn't doesn't mean anything in terms of AH), it is impossible, or extremely difficult, to move them purposefully. Well, Llamas are currently all over the place and there is no reason to assume that it's impossible to do this earlier.
If we're already assuming greater contact between nations, the existence of new world ships, and a desire for trade, Llamas can and will spread.
Why? What's the market?
"Here's an animal that will help support a lifestyle that you don't have and may not even want." isn't a very attractive deal, even if the llamas survive the trip.
That's the problem with this thread. I'm not trying to say it should stop - but the question always has to be asked what the interest for the people actually involved in the changes is in the changes involved. This isn't Civilization, where you know that if you don't have X Y and Z you'll be overrun by one of the other "tribes", or that X Y and Z lead to Better Stuff which is objectively better.
Now, maybe the prospect of llamas would interest some of the North American natives. But we really need to look at what it would offer for them, in their circumstances, with what they would find appealing or necessary before assuming that all you need is to move llamas north and bam! progress.
If for example you're having the scenario of only scattered patches of land that aren't undergoing famine, those stricken by famine are going to see llamas as ready food - because they need ready food more than the need to develop "more advanced" civilization.
AtriumCarceris
Banned
This is a ridiculous question, given the assumptions.
"We're assuming trade," and then you go "why, where's the trade coming from?"
We are assuming it. What you're doing is asking for details which are at this moment fairly unimportant, because the OP who asked the question hasn't quite decided on where he wants to go specifically, and is only asking in broad generalities.
Can Llamas spread? Yes. We don't need to know how right now, he didn't ask how, he's asking generally if that is a possibility because he's asking questions to gather his thoughts and form a basic idea on a scenario. Asking "why would they want to?" is not some startling question nobody would have ever thought of, like we're all too stupid to think about it.
Yes, this has already been pointed out, not only by you, but by myself and others. It is to be kept in mind when forming specifics, not used as a battering ram to destroy general possibilities.
I'm pretty sure that any scenario Zorqal wants to cook up would not have Llamas moving north as the primary PoD. If he came out and said that, that that's where it'd all start, then yes, you'd be right to point out that we need a reason for this to happen.
But that's not what's going on. He's asking for broad possibilities, several things that could help the Native Americans be more "equal" in technology and presumably form of civilisation to Europeans upon contact.
And a thing that won't happen because there's no interest in it isn't a thing that can help them. It's a nonstarter.
I wouldn't be asking if I thought it was a startling question or everyone else was stupid, I'm asking precisely because I think that if there is a viable way that this site has the kind of people who can think of how and why and thus explore a plausible outcome - it's very likely that if the Americas develop maritime trade including swapping crop and animal packages that this influences what societies the Europeans run into, which Zorqal appears interested given his replies on the issue of disease or the Mayans or the conquistadors screwing up/getting less lucky.
AtriumCarceris
Banned
Do you have any sources or arguments or anything at all to support your blanket assertion that northern movement of Llamas is impossible? Anything at all? I'm open, just give me something.
Like I just said, we all are aware that things wont get adopted unless they're seen as useful. I'm afraid I don't accept your mere assertion that Llamas moving north is a "nonstarter" as something to be taken seriously. You did not offer any detailed explanations on natives at the time, their cultures, their desires, their system of government, or why they not only wouldn't want Llamas, but why they could never want Llamas, nor why a PoD fairly far back could never produce cultures that would want Llamas.
Which is it? Is it a "nonstarter" or is it a possibility? It's one or the other, it can't be both.
I was under the impression Zorqal currently wanted broad possibilities to get the Natives "even." Spread of Llamas is something to consider, either as something in itself, or better conceived, as a consequences of other things.
Presumably he wants these other things as well, as it is fairly obvious that the mere spreading of Llamas will not provide the desired end by itself, and as nobody is contesting will probably not be easily doable as a lone PoD.
Nobody is discussing it as a lone PoD. Such a discussion is at the moment dreadfully premature, as I said already, because Zorqal will need other earlier things to get natives all around more advanced everywhere. These other things will impact the Llama question and scenario. So unless you are in some way precognitive (if you are, please share what the thread will end up with so we can move on) it is not a good idea to jump into such a specific lone PoD when we still have yet to hear from Zorqal exactly what PoD's or scenarios he wishes to explore.
This is all assuming you really care about the Llama question, but I don't think you do. You did after all, claim it is a "nonstarter."
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I never said that there is absolutely no possibility that lllamas could be moved north.
Not even close. So it would be rather a waste of my time and yours to give you a source or an argument or anything at all for something I'm not asserting.
AtriumCarceris
Banned
As I am fairly interested in New World timelines and the OP's question, I figure I'd go a bit more into depth with what I see as possibilities. Mostly I'm taking all the current New World Domesticates TL's and mashing them all together. There are two ways to go about a "best case" scenario. Save megafauna, or don't and work with what's left. If you do the former you get all sorts of things like horses, camels, Llama, and possible exotic things like Mastodons. But you kind of ruin any possibility of OTL cultures developing, so I'll outline a possibility without that.
The earliest things that have been explored are the PoD's involved in Pecari Rex, Land of Salmon and Totems, and Mississippi Rice. All three involve genetic changes to make three things more amiable to domestication (albeit, later versions of Pecari Rex saved the horse, so we won't do that) several thousand years ago. Technically, these too are so far back that everything would be different, but it's a minor thing I think, we can ignore that for the sake of story, right?
After that, Lands of Ice and Mice involve a PoD too late, 717, though the actual PoD is a cultural shift in the Thule Culture, brought on by a fluke. No real reason as far as I can see why you can't roll this down to something earlier, perhaps 200AD. Late, but before the cut-off point. There was some talk about the PoD being around the Medieval Warming period, but I don't see this as necessary for a change, just helpful. If everything went along as in Ice and Mice, just five hundred years earlier, that's a decent chunk of time.
The other two timelines that come to mind are Bronze Age New World, and Guns of the Tawantinsuyu. Then preventing the Pre-classical Mayan collapse has been suggested, as well as fish farming.
With moderate uses of butterfly nets, you can keep most South American cultures the same, or at least known. The Maya and Olmec will probably exist in a fairly recognisable way, only this time there are Pecaries just waiting to be domesticated. Assume a bigger population, and assume either no pre-classical collapse, or a less devastating one. The former is better for our purposes.
The far north hasn't diverged yet and the rest of North America is starting up in a similar fashion, Mississippi Rice positing a Megalopotamian Agricultural Complex developing at around the same time the Olmec would be showing up, and Salmon and Totems also positing the introduction of a Willamette Valley civilization with their River Potato. The Megalopotamian agricultural package has an awful lot of things, the rice being only the most important, while the Willamette Valley package is much smaller. The area also has fish farming, so there's that. There are also mentioned domesticates, and of course we should assume domesticates in different areas. American Bison, Turkeys, Heath Hens, Muscovy Ducks, Peccaries, Blue-winged Teal, Mallards, Mountain Goats, and the OTL stuff like guinea pigs, dogs, and Llamas. All these combined give North America everything the old world had, except a Horse analogue. This is the only reason I'd perhaps accept the survival of the horse. It'd be really helpful here.
The Andean area would develop on its own, alone, for a while, and it will still be first. We can put a net over it so it trucks along until 1200BC or so. The Pecaries are here too, so things will change also from that.
By 200AD, everything has changed. All of the Americas have some major useful agricultural package, and has seen the rise and fall of empires, except for the Far North which is just getting on its feet with an earlier Ice and Mice. Whatever alternate-Saladoid culture arises in the Caribbean will have come from a more populous, stable central America and south America. Whatever the case, you can assume a maritime culture, an alternate "Polynesian Arawak" culture in the Caribbean. This can now greatly increase contact between Mesoamerica and whatever has developed in North America. Guns of the Tawantinsuyu assumed an accidental discovery of Gunpowder in 800AD, but no reason you can't now bump that down to around now in the Andes.
Contact is 1492. So now we have nearly 1300 more years to develop before then, and all the pieces are there to move to Bronze Age, to Iron Age quickly, (there is a suggestion that some Iron-working was spurred forward due to a decrease in the availability in bronze, but bronze would be hard to come by outside of Mesoamerica and so an Iron-age could be pushed forward thanks to that)
From an iron age, it's just a hop-skip-and-a-jump to something recognisably "even" with the Old World, so long as everything was pushed that way.
People suggested longer Viking Contact. This would start in 900AD, which would have given our intrepid Thule 700 years to learn the ropes of agriculture, which is significantly longer than they had in Lands of Ice and Mice. You could probably get "European knowledge" to trickle into the new world much easier in this scenario, maybe European things like chickens, but it would make it harder to keep a butterfly net around the Old World. You'd also probably get heavier die-offs from disease, but probably still not much spread of immunities.
Do all this and you have everybody's suggestions and previous ideas all at once, and without ASB's the new world in 1492 I expect could be fairly "even" with the old.
Back to disease, the New World would have developed its own crop of diseases, which I think will save it. People talk about how you can't get the New World to not experience huge die-offs. True, but if they have their own diseases, any would-be early explorers like Columbus will stay long enough to get sick and die. If there did manage to be enough survivors to take a ship back to the Old World, and as contact increases, the New World will probably introduce some nasty plagues, putting the Old World in the same boat as the New World. Europe will recover. So will the New World. And because it's two-way, Europe can't just walk in an take advantage of New World instability from diseases. Europe has its own diseases to worry about now.
My mistake, I was confused by the bolding of the word "won't" and the assertion that it was a "non-starter." I should have known you actually meant the opposite of what you said.
What do you think you were saying then? It couldn't have been just pointing out that things won't move if people don't want them to, considering you already said that and I already said that, and nobody contests that. It couldn't have been asking how, because you said that after I'd already explained that it's not quite a good time to go into the "how" just yet and we were already assuming trade was happening with certain desires and tech levels. So what was it then? What were you saying, if not that it was impossible?
The earliest things that have been explored are the PoD's involved in Pecari Rex, Land of Salmon and Totems, and Mississippi Rice. All three involve genetic changes to make three things more amiable to domestication (albeit, later versions of Pecari Rex saved the horse, so we won't do that) several thousand years ago. Technically, these too are so far back that everything would be different, but it's a minor thing I think, we can ignore that for the sake of story, right?
After that, Lands of Ice and Mice involve a PoD too late, 717, though the actual PoD is a cultural shift in the Thule Culture, brought on by a fluke. No real reason as far as I can see why you can't roll this down to something earlier, perhaps 200AD. Late, but before the cut-off point. There was some talk about the PoD being around the Medieval Warming period, but I don't see this as necessary for a change, just helpful. If everything went along as in Ice and Mice, just five hundred years earlier, that's a decent chunk of time.
The other two timelines that come to mind are Bronze Age New World, and Guns of the Tawantinsuyu. Then preventing the Pre-classical Mayan collapse has been suggested, as well as fish farming.
With moderate uses of butterfly nets, you can keep most South American cultures the same, or at least known. The Maya and Olmec will probably exist in a fairly recognisable way, only this time there are Pecaries just waiting to be domesticated. Assume a bigger population, and assume either no pre-classical collapse, or a less devastating one. The former is better for our purposes.
The far north hasn't diverged yet and the rest of North America is starting up in a similar fashion, Mississippi Rice positing a Megalopotamian Agricultural Complex developing at around the same time the Olmec would be showing up, and Salmon and Totems also positing the introduction of a Willamette Valley civilization with their River Potato. The Megalopotamian agricultural package has an awful lot of things, the rice being only the most important, while the Willamette Valley package is much smaller. The area also has fish farming, so there's that. There are also mentioned domesticates, and of course we should assume domesticates in different areas. American Bison, Turkeys, Heath Hens, Muscovy Ducks, Peccaries, Blue-winged Teal, Mallards, Mountain Goats, and the OTL stuff like guinea pigs, dogs, and Llamas. All these combined give North America everything the old world had, except a Horse analogue. This is the only reason I'd perhaps accept the survival of the horse. It'd be really helpful here.
The Andean area would develop on its own, alone, for a while, and it will still be first. We can put a net over it so it trucks along until 1200BC or so. The Pecaries are here too, so things will change also from that.
By 200AD, everything has changed. All of the Americas have some major useful agricultural package, and has seen the rise and fall of empires, except for the Far North which is just getting on its feet with an earlier Ice and Mice. Whatever alternate-Saladoid culture arises in the Caribbean will have come from a more populous, stable central America and south America. Whatever the case, you can assume a maritime culture, an alternate "Polynesian Arawak" culture in the Caribbean. This can now greatly increase contact between Mesoamerica and whatever has developed in North America. Guns of the Tawantinsuyu assumed an accidental discovery of Gunpowder in 800AD, but no reason you can't now bump that down to around now in the Andes.
Contact is 1492. So now we have nearly 1300 more years to develop before then, and all the pieces are there to move to Bronze Age, to Iron Age quickly, (there is a suggestion that some Iron-working was spurred forward due to a decrease in the availability in bronze, but bronze would be hard to come by outside of Mesoamerica and so an Iron-age could be pushed forward thanks to that)
From an iron age, it's just a hop-skip-and-a-jump to something recognisably "even" with the Old World, so long as everything was pushed that way.
People suggested longer Viking Contact. This would start in 900AD, which would have given our intrepid Thule 700 years to learn the ropes of agriculture, which is significantly longer than they had in Lands of Ice and Mice. You could probably get "European knowledge" to trickle into the new world much easier in this scenario, maybe European things like chickens, but it would make it harder to keep a butterfly net around the Old World. You'd also probably get heavier die-offs from disease, but probably still not much spread of immunities.
Do all this and you have everybody's suggestions and previous ideas all at once, and without ASB's the new world in 1492 I expect could be fairly "even" with the old.
Back to disease, the New World would have developed its own crop of diseases, which I think will save it. People talk about how you can't get the New World to not experience huge die-offs. True, but if they have their own diseases, any would-be early explorers like Columbus will stay long enough to get sick and die. If there did manage to be enough survivors to take a ship back to the Old World, and as contact increases, the New World will probably introduce some nasty plagues, putting the Old World in the same boat as the New World. Europe will recover. So will the New World. And because it's two-way, Europe can't just walk in an take advantage of New World instability from diseases. Europe has its own diseases to worry about now.
My mistake, I was confused by the bolding of the word "won't" and the assertion that it was a "non-starter." I should have known you actually meant the opposite of what you said.
What do you think you were saying then? It couldn't have been just pointing out that things won't move if people don't want them to, considering you already said that and I already said that, and nobody contests that. It couldn't have been asking how, because you said that after I'd already explained that it's not quite a good time to go into the "how" just yet and we were already assuming trade was happening with certain desires and tech levels. So what was it then? What were you saying, if not that it was impossible?
I meant exactly what I said.
If it won't happen, it's no different in terms of helping them than something that can't happen - the end result is still "no llamas for the North Americans".
So for it to be a helpful answer to Zorqal's original question or a useful piece of whatever ends up being written, how and why it does happen needs to be addressed - it would greatly affect the results for llamas to be treated as a meat on the hoof source rather than as (to quote a post of yours a while back) "the closest to horses". And both are different than the societies who find them equivalent to white elephants.
If Zorqal goes with the idea of - for other reasons - limited areas that reliably produce a food surplus, you're pretty likely to have llamas be just #1, however. So much for pack animals.
If it won't happen, it's no different in terms of helping them than something that can't happen - the end result is still "no llamas for the North Americans".
So for it to be a helpful answer to Zorqal's original question or a useful piece of whatever ends up being written, how and why it does happen needs to be addressed - it would greatly affect the results for llamas to be treated as a meat on the hoof source rather than as (to quote a post of yours a while back) "the closest to horses". And both are different than the societies who find them equivalent to white elephants.
If Zorqal goes with the idea of - for other reasons - limited areas that reliably produce a food surplus, you're pretty likely to have llamas be just #1, however. So much for pack animals.
My point is about the only way you could get llamas to North America is for an Andean people to emerge that starts to colonize land far and wide. But it's not likely this would happen as there are plenty of choice locations for colonization like modern day Chile and Argentina that were much closer.
Andean domesticates and agricultural package would have thrived in the Andean near-abroad, greatly boosting population density and yet the focus is on relatively implausible llama resettlement to North America. It's a kind of North America-centric world view don't you think?
Andean domesticates and agricultural package would have thrived in the Andean near-abroad, greatly boosting population density and yet the focus is on relatively implausible llama resettlement to North America. It's a kind of North America-centric world view don't you think?
It's North America Centric because that's where I was primarily focusing. If the Andeans could get llamas north trough colonization, why not if the North was just as developed? would they not be able to transport them North then?
AtriumCarceris
Banned
Well, they did OTL. What you seem to mean is like, a cohesive centralised people, like an empire. But you don't even need that much.
For example, OTL the Caribbean was partially settled by people from South America. So all you need to do is spread the Andean package north east first off, then establish a maritime culture in the Caribbean. Llamas won't survive there, but what's important in this scenario is that Llamas are known, and have spread somewhere near the coast. Then we can assume some spread. Some kind of tribute, gift, trade, weird personal experiment, whatever, it's kind of hard to elaborate when there's no set scenario for what North America even looks like, what's going on in Mesoamerica, and what the Andeans are really doing.
Personally, I don't care too much about Llamas. Merely, their spread is a possibility. Unlike other broader changes, Llama spread isn't necessary.
But why would they? They would have to purposely transport these animals about 3,000 miles north to get them to suitable climates, when there were better places to colonize near them. You could sail from Peru around the south tip of Chile to Uruguay for the same effort. Compared to this, leading a llama caravan through the Andeas to settle the Argentine pampas is a no brainer and yet they didn't do it.
This is about as plausible as Chinese colonization of North America. People are rational. They wont take the road of most resistance when they have better and nearer places to colonize if they were interested in that sort of thing.
This is about as plausible as Chinese colonization of North America. People are rational. They wont take the road of most resistance when they have better and nearer places to colonize if they were interested in that sort of thing.
AtriumCarceris
Banned
Okay, what exactly are you asking? Are you asking why people would move north from Peru, instead of South? Well they did, they eventually moved both north and south along the Andes, which extend all the way to the north of South America providing access to the Caribbean, so what's the problem? This is different of course from "colonisation," I don't really know what you're trying to talk about there.
People were there, people moved around, you don't need anything to be colonised by any particular peoples, you just need their stuff to move around a little more than OTL.